JustMarkets Research Highlights Global Growth Divergence as a Key Market Driver

Source: APO

According to JustMarkets’ (www.JustMarkets.com) latest market research, currency movements are increasingly being influenced not only by interest rate expectations, but also by the relative pace of economic growth across leading economies. With the United States expanding faster than the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, and Japan, FX markets are beginning to reflect a broader shift in capital flows, earnings expectations, and investor positioning.

The analysis follows a period of synchronized global monetary tightening, during which central bank policy dominated market sentiment. However, as inflation pressures moderate and economies begin to move at different speeds, JustMarkets notes that relative growth performance is becoming a more important factor for traders assessing medium-term currency trends.

US Growth Outperformance Comes Into Focus

IMF projections point to US GDP growth of 2.4% in 2026, compared with 1.3% for both the Eurozone and the United Kingdom, and 0.7% for Japan. This places the US growth advantage at approximately 1.1 percentage points over the Eurozone and 1.7 percentage points over Japan.

JustMarkets’ research indicates that this growth gap is already visible across major currency pairs. EUR/USD declined from around 1.20 in late January 2026 to approximately 1.145 by mid-March, while GBP/USD remained in the 1.31–1.34 range following weaker UK GDP data. USD/JPY also stayed elevated above the 155–160 range in March, reflecting the continued US-Japan growth differential.

“These moves suggest that the FX market is increasingly pricing in macroeconomic divergence rather than reacting solely to individual central bank decisions,” JustMarkets stated in its analysis. “Relative growth is becoming a central lens for understanding currency performance.”

A Broader Framework for FX Market Analysis

The research highlights that traders are increasingly monitoring forward-looking indicators such as composite PMIs, retail sales, real wage growth, corporate investment plans, and relative earnings revisions. These indicators can provide early signals of economic momentum before official GDP data is released.

The company notes that similar dynamics were visible in 2022, when weakening Eurozone growth indicators, pressure from the energy crisis, and stronger relative US resilience contributed to EUR/USD reaching parity for the first time in two decades.

According to JustMarkets, the current environment reinforces the importance of analyzing currencies as relative instruments. Rather than assessing whether a single currency is strong or weak in isolation, traders need to compare the economic strength of one region against another and identify which FX pairs best reflect that divergence.

JustMarkets Expands Access to Multi-Asset Market Opportunities

JustMarkets emphasizes that a broad instrument range is essential in a market environment shaped by macro divergence. The company provides access to major, minor, and exotic FX pairs, alongside indices, commodities, and metals, allowing traders to express market views across multiple asset classes.

In periods of US growth outperformance, traders may look beyond traditional USD crosses and consider related opportunities across equity indices, commodities, and regional market exposures. This flexibility allows market participants to apply a more comprehensive approach to macro-driven trading strategies.

Growth Divergence Becomes a Defining Market Theme

The research concludes that growth divergence is emerging as a quiet but increasingly influential market regime. Unlike sudden policy shocks or headline-driven volatility, this type of shift tends to develop gradually through economic data, investor expectations, and capital allocation trends.

As global economies move at different speeds, www.JustMarkets.com expects traders to place greater emphasis on comparative growth indicators when evaluating currency opportunities.

For traders seeking to explore these market dynamics, JustMarkets offers a free demo account (https://apo-opa.co/4dKXdHa) with access to multiple FX pairs, indices, commodities, and metals.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of JustMarkets.

Contact:
Name: Kardo Dlir Farhan
Email: kardo.farhan@justmarkets.com

Risk Warning: Trading financial instruments involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Market conditions can change rapidly, and losses may exceed deposits. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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Deputy Minister Morolong calls for structural transformation

Source: Government of South Africa

Deputy Minister Morolong calls for structural transformation

 Deputy Minister in The Presidency Kenny Morolong has called for mining to be used as a catalyst for structural transformation.

“Mining must become the foundation on which we build a diversified and industrialised economy. The world’s most successful resource economies have used mining as a catalyst for manufacturing, engineering services, logistics hubs and research institutions,” Morolong said on Thursday in Rustenburg, North West.

Addressing the Bojanala District Economic Development Symposium, the Deputy Minister challenged the district to look beyond extracting raw minerals and sending them elsewhere for processing, manufacturing and export.

He noted that mining remains the dominant economic sector in Bojanala and continues to drive output, exports, investment and employment.

“Mining must become the foundation on which we build a diversified and industrialised economy,” the Deputy Minister said.

He said the economy that emerged under apartheid concentrated ownership, wealth and productive assets in the hands of a minority, while excluding the majority of South Africans from meaningful participation in economic activity.

“The discovery of diamonds in Kimberley in 1867 and gold on the Witwatersrand in 1886 transformed South Africa into one of the world’s leading mining economies.

“Mining became the foundation on which railways, ports, financial institutions, manufacturing industries and modern cities were built. However, this economic growth was not inclusive,” the Deputy Minister said.

He said three decades later, inequality in South Africa remains stubbornly high. 

“The challenge before us is therefore not merely economic growth; it is economic transformation. Transformation requires us to fundamentally change patterns of ownership, production, investment, skills development and economic participation,” he said.

Morolong emphasised that South Africa needs both growth and transformation.

According to the South African Reserve Bank and the International Monetary Fund, South Africa’s economy remains resilient, but growth is still too low to significantly reduce unemployment, poverty and inequality.

“We need to urgently industrialise our economy, deepen localisation and strengthen domestic backward linkages, especially in the mining value chain.

“We must expand opportunities for small, medium and micro enterprises (SMMEs), cooperatives, women-owned enterprises, youth-owned enterprises and black industrialists.

“We must strengthen municipal capability and improve infrastructure to ensure that economic growth translates into tangible improvements in the lives of ordinary South Africans,” Morolong said. –SAnews.gov.za

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Committees support plan to tackle municipal debt owed to Eskom

Source: Government of South Africa

Committees support plan to tackle municipal debt owed to Eskom

Parliament’s Portfolio Committees on Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs and on Electricity and Energy have thrown their weight behind the creation of an inter-ministerial committee to address the growing crisis of financially distressed municipalities, particularly those burdened by escalating debt to Eskom.

The call emerged during a joint committee meeting on Wednesday, where members received updates from the Department of Electricity and Energy, Eskom, the Department of Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs (COGTA), the South African Local Government Association (Salga) and the National Treasury on the implementation of Distribution Agency Agreements (DAAs) between Eskom and municipalities.

The committees expressed concern over the worsening municipal debt owed to Eskom, which has now exceeded R110 billion, up from R89 billion reported at a previous meeting.

Portfolio Committee on Electricity and Energy Chairperson Zama Khanyase warned that the mounting debt threatens to undermine the progress Eskom has made in stabilising its operations and finances.

“Eskom introduced Distribution Agency Agreements to improve revenue collection, strengthen municipal capacity and support a sustainable electricity supply,” Khanyase said.

However, committee members acknowledged that the agreements alone would not solve the problem.

Portfolio Committee on Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs Chairperson Zweli Mkhize said the crisis required a coordinated response across government rather than isolated interventions by individual departments or institutions.

“The municipal electricity debt crisis calls for a government-wide response. The inter-ministerial committee must deal with the complexities of the current debt, correct governance failures and address corruption and dysfunction,” he said.

Mkhize noted that some municipalities face structural challenges that make financial recovery difficult, including weak revenue bases and limited economic activity.

“We need to face the reality that some municipalities are in situations where they cannot resolve these issues on their own,” Mkhize said.

He stressed the importance of cooperation among all stakeholders, warning against adversarial positions between Eskom and municipalities.

“From Eskom’s side, the message is ‘pay or else’. From the municipalities’ side, the message is ‘we cannot pay’. That kind of situation is a problem. We need intergovernmental and cooperative ownership of both the problem and the solution.”

Members emphasised that while municipalities have constitutional authority over electricity reticulation, this authority cannot be used to justify poor performance or the diversion of funds intended for electricity services.

The committees highlighted several areas requiring urgent attention, including improving municipal billing systems, strengthening revenue collection, updating indigent registers, safeguarding free basic electricity allocations and enhancing credit control measures.

Concern was also raised about municipalities’ inability to collect payments from consumers, a factor contributing to their growing debt burden to Eskom.

Khanyase said policy reform processes currently under way, including the review of the electricity pricing policy and the draft White Paper on Local Government, were important but would take time to yield results.

“What is clear is that action is needed from both sides,” she said. “Eskom and municipalities need to act in concert with each other and with government support. Without mutual understanding, the problem cannot be resolved.”

The committees resolved to continue monitoring the implementation of Distribution Agency Agreements and municipal performance. 

They have instructed relevant stakeholders to return within three months with concrete interventions, including an intergovernmental action plan that addresses debt, revenue collection, governance weaknesses and infrastructure challenges. – SAnews.gov.za

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SA, Kenya deepen ties to advance African integration and shared prosperity

Source: Government of South Africa

SA, Kenya deepen ties to advance African integration and shared prosperity

President Cyril Ramaphosa has reaffirmed South Africa and Kenya’s commitment to deepening economic cooperation, advancing regional integration and strengthening Africa’s collective voice on the global stage.

Delivering opening remarks during the State Visit of Kenyan President William Ruto at the Union Buildings in Pretoria on Thursday, President Ramaphosa described the visit as a celebration of the enduring friendship between the two countries and a reflection of their shared vision for Africa’s future.

Earlier in the day, President Ruto was accorded a ceremonial welcome at the Nelson Mandela Amphitheatre at the Union Buildings, where he inspected a guard of honour before holding a tête-à-tête meeting with President Ramaphosa.

“It is a profound honour and a personal joy to welcome President Ruto and the Kenyan delegation to South Africa. This reciprocal State Visit is a celebration of the friendship and solidarity that binds our two nations,” President Ramaphosa said.

The President said the visit builds on the strong foundation laid during his State Visit to Kenya in November 2022 and ongoing engagements through the Joint Commission for Cooperation.

As two of Africa’s leading economies, President Ramaphosa said South Africa and Kenya have a responsibility to drive the continent’s development agenda.

“As such, our partnership carries significance not only for our citizens but for the broader African project of integration, industrialisation and inclusive growth,” he said.

President Ramaphosa welcomed the outcomes of the 7th Session of the South Africa-Kenya Joint Trade Committee, held in Pretoria in April, saying the discussions reinforced both countries’ commitment to building a balanced and mutually beneficial trading relationship under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

“We are encouraged by the progress made in addressing trade imbalances, removing barriers and strengthening regional value chains,” he said. 

The President noted that cooperation between the two countries is expanding into strategic sectors including green energy, climate-smart industrialisation, digital trade, artificial intelligence, e-mobility, maritime cooperation and skills development.

“Such cooperation will create opportunities to transform lives, empower young people and build resilient economies,” the President said.

Six Memoranda of Understanding were signed during the visit, covering agriculture, tourism, information and communications technology, energy, transport and maritime cooperation.

President Ramaphosa also welcomed a proposal to establish a South Africa-Kenya Joint Business Council, saying it would provide a stronger platform for private sector participation in shaping trade and investment opportunities.

The President highlighted growing people-to-people ties between the two countries, particularly following the introduction of visa-free travel for citizens of both nations for visits of up to 90 days.

“The decision we took in 2022 to grant visa-free access for up to 90 days has already yielded positive results. Tourism, business travel and cultural exchanges have grown,” he said. 

President Ramaphosa said the growing trade relationship between the two countries demonstrates the practical benefits of continental integration.

“We are proud of the milestone we achieved when South Africa and Kenya launched the first consignments traded under the AfCFTA Guided Trade Initiative. This shows that the AfCFTA is not just an aspiration. It is a living instrument that is already transforming intra-African trade,” the President said. 

He said opportunities remain abundant in infrastructure development, automotive manufacturing, agro-processing, renewable energy, healthcare, education and digital innovation.

The President also welcomed increasing cooperation between Kenya Airways and South African Airways, which is enhancing connectivity and supporting tourism and business exchanges.

Beyond economic cooperation, President Ramaphosa said South Africa and Kenya remain united in promoting peace, diplomacy and multilateralism amid growing global instability. – SAnews.gov.za

 

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SA, Kenya call for continental solutions to migration challenges

Source: Government of South Africa

SA, Kenya call for continental solutions to migration challenges

President Cyril Ramaphosa and Kenyan President William Ruto have called for a coordinated African response to migration, arguing that the challenge can only be addressed through economic development, job creation and stronger continental institutions.

Migration emerged as one of the central issues during the leaders’ opening remarks at the State Visit hosted by President Ramaphosa at the Union Buildings in Tshwane on Thursday.

The two Heads of State said migration pressures facing South Africa and other African countries stem from uneven economic development across the continent and require collective action rather than isolated national responses.

President Ramaphosa revealed that migration featured prominently in discussions between him and his counterpart.

“You and I also took time to deal with the challenges that we, as South Africa, are facing with regard to migration, and we dealt with that and we sought to understand the causes of migration and how best all countries on the continent can work together to address this challenge of migration because it is not only unique to South Africa,” he said.

The President stressed that South Africans were not opposed to fellow Africans but were concerned about challenges associated with migration flows.

“I explained that South Africans are not xenophobic. South Africans are Africans. They want to live with other Africans peacefully, and our people are calling on us as leaders to resolve the many challenges that are brought to bear by the challenge of migration.”

President Ramaphosa said South Africa was actively dealing with migration-related challenges and welcomed what he described as Ruto’s understanding of the issue.

The President further emphasised that cooperation between African countries was critical in finding lasting solutions.

“So, working together, South Africa and Kenya can help shape a peaceful, integrated, and thriving African continent that is always able to resolve its own problems under the slogan -African solutions for African problems,” he said.

President Ruto echoed President Ramaphosa’s sentiments, saying migration was closely linked to the availability of opportunities across the continent.

The Kenyan leader acknowledged South Africa’s position as one of the continent’s more developed economies, making it a destination for people seeking jobs and services.

“You and I discussed the whole subject about migration and the need for us to provide opportunities in our country. I think part of the challenge we are facing [is] because South Africa is a much more developed country, therefore it’s easier for people to come here for services and to seek for opportunities,” President Ruto said.

He argued that the long-term solution lies in ensuring economic opportunities are more evenly distributed across African countries.

“The answer to this is to make sure that services and opportunities exist everywhere in our continent to avoid some of the challenges that we are facing,” he said.

Ruto linked the migration debate to ongoing efforts to reform the African Union (AU), saying stronger continental institutions would help African countries better coordinate development efforts and speak with one voice on global issues.

As the African Union Champion for Institutional Reform, President Ruto said a stronger and more effective AU could help create conditions that reduce migration pressures.

“The President and I agreed that a fit for purpose Africa Union will help create the solidarity between countries, so that we can provide opportunities for our citizens and avoid unnecessary, you know, competition over resources and over opportunities that sometimes result in the kind of challenges that we have,” he said.

Ruto added that competition for limited resources and employment opportunities was often at the heart of migration tensions across the continent.

“I fully understand the people are competing for resources, people are competing for opportunities, and therefore it is important and imperative for us to create opportunities everywhere in our world, so that the people of this continent can move together.”

Partnerships and trade

The migration discussion formed part of broader bilateral talks aimed at strengthening relations between South Africa and Kenya, two of Africa’s most influential economies.

South Africa regards Kenya as a strategic partner in East Africa and is seeking to elevate bilateral ties to the level of a Strategic Partnership.

The two countries have signed a number of agreements and memoranda of understanding covering sectors including agriculture, education, tourism, transport, defence, home affairs, trade and environmental cooperation.

Kenya is among South Africa’s largest trading partners on the continent outside the Southern African Development Community (SADC), while more than 60 South African companies operate in the East African nation.

The State Visit also included discussions on economic cooperation, regional peace and security, continental integration and investment, with the two leaders set to engage business leaders at the South Africa-Kenya Business Forum, at 5pm, focused on expanding trade and investment opportunities.

READ | Dtic to host Business Forum with Kenya

Both leaders suggested that deeper economic integration, stronger institutions and increased development across the continent would be key to addressing the root causes of migration while advancing Africa’s broader agenda for growth and prosperity. – SAnews.gov.za

 

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Director of Policy Planning Department at Ministry of Foreign Affairs Meets Indonesian Officials

Source: Government of Qatar

Jakarta | June 4, 2026

HE Director of Policy and Planning Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Dr. Khalid bin Fahad Al Khater met Thursday in Jakarta, separately, with Their Excellencies Deputy Foreign Ministers of the Republic of Indonesia Arrmanatha Christiawan Nasir and Muhammad Anis Matta, as well as HE Indonesia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ Director-General for Asia Pacific and African Affairs Santo Darmosumarto, and HE Head of Foreign Policy Strategy Agency Muhammad Takdir, as part of preparations for the Qatar-Indonesia Strategic Dialogue.

During the meetings, they discussed the distinguished relations between Qatar and Indonesia, and ways to support and strengthen them across various fields in a manner that serves mutual interests and contributes to advancing the partnership between the two countries, in addition to a host of topics of mutual interest.

The meetings also addressed preparations for the Qatar-Indonesia Strategic Dialogue and its importance in enhancing cooperation, coordination, and consultation between the two countries on a number of regional and international issues of common concern.

Call for supply chain officials to be prioritised in lifestyle audits

Source: Government of South Africa

Call for supply chain officials to be prioritised in lifestyle audits

Parliament’s Portfolio Committee on Public Service and Administration has called for supply chain management officials across government to be prioritised for lifestyle audits.

The committee made the call during a meeting on Wednesday where it received progress reports from the Eastern Cape, Free State and Mpumalanga on the implementation of lifestyle audits and efforts to strengthen ethics and integrity management systems in provincial administrations. Limpopo failed to respond to the committee’s invitation to appear before it.

While welcoming the steps taken by provinces to implement lifestyle audits, committee members expressed concern over what they described as inconsistent and uneven implementation across the country. 

Members said oversight visits and presentations continue to reveal significant differences in how provinces approach the audits, undermining efforts to establish a credible anti-corruption framework.

Committee Chairperson Jan de Villiers said previous briefings by the Special Investigating Unit and the Department of Public Service and Administration had highlighted policy gaps that require urgent attention to ensure a standardised approach.

“Our main concern is to ensure that public money is protected from corrupt activity,” De Villiers said. 

“We want to find and stop corruption. Essentially, we want to stop taxpayers’ money from illicitly flowing towards corrupt activities in departments.”

He said evidence emerging from the Madlanga Commission had exposed weaknesses in ethical and integrity systems throughout the public administration, making it necessary to strengthen safeguards against corruption.

De Villiers singled out supply chain management units as a critical area of concern, suggesting that officials working in procurement should be among the first to undergo lifestyle audits.

“It seems to me that, regardless of the form of corruption, or what a public service employee who is guilty of corruption may be trying to do, it can almost never happen without some person in supply chain management working with them,” he said.

“Ultimately, funds, tenders, appointing service providers and related processes tend to flow through supply chain management offices. So, should we not start with lifestyle audits on every single person in supply chain management before we do anything else?”

Committee members also raised concerns about delays in vetting senior managers, noting that backlogs within the State Security Agency and staff shortages continue to hamper the process. 

Questions were also raised about the apparent lack of consequences for officials implicated in wrongdoing, while some members criticised provinces for repeatedly citing capacity constraints as justification for slow implementation.

The committee reminded provinces that lifestyle audits were introduced as a serious anti-corruption intervention and cannot be treated as “a mere guideline that can be delayed or deferred”.

Members stressed that the audits must deliver visible results and contribute meaningfully to detecting and preventing corruption.

De Villiers warned that corruption has a direct impact on service delivery, particularly in sectors serving vulnerable citizens.

“The reality is that the corruption we have seen across the state is often at its worst in provincial health departments and provincial education departments. These are also the areas where our most vulnerable citizens are – our children and patients,” he said.

He added that efforts to identify unexplained wealth, uncover ghost workers and root out corruption were essential to protecting public resources and improving government services. – SAnews.gov.za

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NW Legislature raises concerns over performance of provincial safety, transport dept

Source: Government of South Africa

NW Legislature raises concerns over performance of provincial safety, transport dept

The North West Provincial Legislature’s Portfolio Committee on Community Safety and Transport Management has expressed concern over the failure of the Department of Community Safety and Transport Management (COSATMA) to meet several annual performance targets, while also warning that the ongoing crisis at North West Transport Investment (NTI) requires urgent intervention.

The committee, chaired by Freddy Sonakile, met with the department to consider its third and fourth-quarter performance reports for the 2025/26 financial year.

During the meeting, members of the committee engaged extensively on several outstanding matters, including the Road Rangers Programme, the department’s security tender, the incorporation of the erstwhile Atamelang Bus Company into the Ngaka Modiri Molema bus contract, stock theft intervention plans, status of departmental infrastructure projects, ongoing litigation matters, and weighbridge operations across the province.

The committee expressed concern over programmes that failed to achieve their annual targets and instructed the department to submit a comprehensive corrective action plan outlining measures to address the shortcomings.

Particular emphasis was placed on the filling of vacant posts to strengthen institutional capacity and service delivery.

However, the committee commended Programme 2: Provincial Secretariat for Police Services and Programme 4: Transport Regulation for achieving all their annual performance targets, despite prevailing budgetary constraints.

The second part of the meeting focused on the ongoing challenges facing the North West Transport Investment (NTI). The Committee received a status report which painted a bleak picture of the entity’s current state. NTI operations have been suspended since January 2026 following the withdrawal of buses by subcontractors due to non-payment.

The committee also received an update on recent legal developments involving Business Rescue Practitioner (BRP) Thomas Sammons, who has been granted condonation by the Supreme Court of Appeal.

The committee stated unequivocally that it would not support any attempt to return NTI to the business rescue process, arguing that the intervention had failed to achieve its intended objectives.

“We will not support any move to reach a settlement with individuals who failed to rescue the entity, particularly when employees’ salaries remain unpaid. The continued delays in resolving workers’ salary issues are not only frustrating but constitute a betrayal of the employees who have borne the brunt of this crisis,” Sonakile said.

The committee has requested that a clear timeline for the payment of all outstanding employee salaries be submitted by next week.

In a bid to find a sustainable solution to the ongoing crisis, the committee resolved to urgently convene a meeting with the Premier, and MECs for Provincial Treasury and Community Safety and Transport Management, to discuss the way forward for the embattled entity.

Members further called for legal avenues to be explored to implement the Executive Council’s resolution to approach the courts for the removal of NTI from the business rescue process.

“The continued appointment of Business Rescue Practitioners and the prolonged uncertainty surrounding the entity cannot be condoned. We cannot continue dealing with the same individuals for more than four years while workers, commuters and economic opportunities in our province suffer. To do so would amount to political cowardice of the highest order,” Sonakile said.

The committee also conveyed its condolences to the family, friends and colleagues of Ingrid Masothe, a South African Transport and Allied Workers Union (SATAWU) shop steward at NTI, who recently passed away.

“We pray that her passing, and those of others who have departed during this difficult period, will not be in vain as efforts continue to restore stability and dignity to the entity and its employees,” Sonakile said. – SAnews.gov.za
 

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Sudan peace: the shadow of the al-Bashir regime looms over talks

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Samir Ramzy, Researcher, Helwan University

Three years into the civil war in Sudan that began on 15 April 2023, a coalition of civilian, political and armed factions has launched a new peace initiative.

Announced in the Kenyan capital Nairobi in May 2026, the roadmap seeks to end the conflict and revive Sudan’s stalled transition to civilian rule.

Its backers – a civilian, anti-war bloc independent of both warring parties – argue that previous peace efforts have failed because signatories weren’t given sufficient opportunity to address the root causes of the war.

The Nairobi document proposes a three-track process. It combines humanitarian measures, a renewable internationally monitored ceasefire and a political transition focused on state reform. It also seeks to address grievances, like the marginalisation of regions such as Darfur, to tackle the roots of conflict.

The roadmap seeks to exclude the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces from the political process. Its signatories argue that this is a result of their responsibility for the war. However, the warring parties are to participate in ceasefire talks.

In addition, the Nairobi initiative seeks to bar leaders of the Islamist movement organisation – including its political arm, the former ruling National Congress Party – from political participation and security-sector reform. The party was in power from 1989 to 2019.

In Sudan, “Islamists” generally refers to political actors associated with the National Congress Party. The party formed the ideological and political backbone of Omar al-Bashir’s regime. Bashir was overthrown in 2019. However, many of the movement’s networks within the state, security sector and business community have endured.

The Nairobi proposal reflects a belief among the signatories that Islamist actors helped create the conditions that led to war in 2023 as a way to regain power.

The Nairobi initiative primarily brings together the Sudan Liberation Movement and the “Somoud” coalition.

The Sudan Liberation Movement is one of the main armed groups that has remained relatively distant from direct involvement in the ongoing war.

Somoud was formed in February 2025. It is a group of civic and political actors led by former prime minister Abdalla Hamdok. It includes several parties that played leading roles in the transitional government established after Bashir’s regime was overthrown. It lasted until the October 2021 military coup.


Read more: Sudan’s civil war is rooted in its historical favouritism of Arab and Islamic identity


The Nairobi initiative is part of a broader landscape of peace efforts in Sudan. These include:

  • the Quad initiative. It involves the United States, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt. It focuses on negotiations between the warring parties: the army and the Rapid Support Forces.

  • the Quint mechanism. It brings together the UN, African Union, European Union, Arab League and Intergovernmental Authority on Development. It emphasises the design of a future political process in Sudan.

  • a conference in Berlin in April 2026 with broad international participation.

Drawing on more than a decade of research on Sudanese politics, I argue that the Nairobi initiative has sharpened debate over the role of Islamists in Sudan’s post-war political order. How that question is resolved will prove crucial to the prospects for a negotiated settlement.

In my view, a ceasefire without broader political settlement could institutionalise Sudan’s current military fragmentation rather than resolve it.

The debate

The Berlin and Nairobi talks illustrate that several important factions are aiming for agreement on a ceasefire in Sudan. However, the issue of whether Islamist parties or leaders should be part of any settlement remains unresolved.

The Islamists’ current electoral weight is difficult to assess. Leaders of the Islamic movement have claimed a membership of around two million out of 53 million Sudanese. The former ruling National Congress Party had argued that it represents more than 25% of Sudanese society.

Such claims are difficult to verify. They were challenged by the mass protests that contributed to the fall of Bashir’s regime in 2019.

The Berlin conference ended with a statement calling for an “inclusive” political dialogue involving all Sudanese parties.

By contrast, both the Nairobi initiative and the Quad process have called for excluding Islamist leaders from the post-war political order.

Supporters of this position argue that the Islamist movement bears significant responsibility for the conflict. They point to their political and military influence during the three decades following Bashir’s 1989 coup, and a continued presence within key state institutions.


Read more: Omar al-Bashir brutalised Sudan – how his 30-year legacy is playing out today


These contrasting approaches reflect different political leanings.

The Nairobi coalition emerged largely from forces associated with Sudan’s 2019 uprising. It views Islamist exclusion as essential to preventing a return to the old order. The Berlin process, meanwhile, reflects a broader international preference for inclusivity as a foundation for peace.

Excluding Islamists entirely may prove difficult. Despite the collapse of Bashir’s regime, the Islamic movement retains influence within parts of the state and security apparatus. This includes government ministries, and intelligence and military institutions.

Sudan and the Islamist movement

Despite Bashir’s fall in 2019, Islamists remain one of Sudan’s most influential political forces. This is largely through networks linked to the former ruling party.

Since the outbreak of war in April 2023, Islamist groups have broadly aligned themselves with the Sudanese Armed Forces. Some have played a direct military role through armed formations that have fought alongside the army.

Others have supported the army through political mobilisation. They have led fundraising, recruitment campaigns and public advocacy. Their influence within communities in northern, central and eastern Sudan has helped mobilise volunteers for army-aligned forces.


Read more: Sudan at war: the art of peace talks and why they often fail


This alignment reflects the legacy of Sudan’s post-2019 transition.

After Bashir’s removal, transitional authorities sought to exclude former regime networks from political power. Many Islamists came to view an army victory as the best chance of preserving any influence.

As a result, Islamist groups have become a target of several actors in the conflict. The Rapid Support Forces and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North are two of the principal forces fighting the army. They have explicitly called for the removal of Islamist influence from state institutions.

The challenge facing future peace efforts is that Islamists still retain significant political and military influence. This makes them difficult to ignore. Yet many of their opponents see their participation as incompatible with a lasting settlement.

What next?

Anti-army actors are unlikely to support the reunification of Sudan’s fragmented armed forces without guarantees that Islamist influence within the military and state institutions will be eliminated.

At the same time, any sustainable settlement is likely to require accountability for Islamist figures implicated in violence, abuses or crimes committed against Sudanese civilians.

This points to a difficult middle path: excluding individuals linked to serious violations or the former regime’s coercive apparatus, while pursuing broader state reforms designed to reduce party influence.

Efforts to exclude Islamists entirely may prove difficult to enforce. Yet attempts to restore them to the centre of power could deepen mistrust and internal divisions. This could further fragment Sudan’s political and military landscape. How Sudanese actors and international mediators handle this dilemma will help determine if peace initiatives produce a lasting settlement.

– Sudan peace: the shadow of the al-Bashir regime looms over talks
– https://theconversation.com/sudan-peace-the-shadow-of-the-al-bashir-regime-looms-over-talks-284346

Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Receives Phone Call from Maldivian Foreign Minister

Source: Government of Qatar

Doha | June 4, 2026

HE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Sultan bin Saad Al Muraikhi received a phone call today from HE Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Maldives Ms. Iruthisham Adam.

During the call, bilateral cooperation relations and ways to support and strengthen them were discussed, in addition to a number of topics of common interest.