Category: MIL-OSI

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Matthew Shupler, Postdoctoral Research Associate in Environmental Public Health, Harvard University

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 had an almost immediate impact on global energy markets and the movement of food around the world. During the first year of the conflict, international crude oil and natural gas prices rose sharply. Disruptions to exports of wheat, maize, sunflower oil and fertilisers from Russia and Ukraine contributed to record global food prices.

Kenya was badly affected as the country imports about 92% of the wheat it consumes.

I am a global health researcher and was interested in tracking how the war in Ukraine affected Kenyans’ ability to afford food and cooking fuel. In 2022, I worked with a team in Mukuru, an informal settlement in Nairobi, to understand how the war had affected the way families used liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) for clean cooking.

---

Read more: How Russia-Ukraine conflict could influence Africa’s food supplies

---

Most Kenyan households still rely on biomass fuels like wood for cooking, but LPG is used by about one-third of Kenyans. LPG is much more commonly used in Kenyan cities (about 60% use) compared with rural areas (about 10% use). Since Kenya does not produce any LPG domestically, changes in global energy prices and supply disruptions can greatly increase cooking costs.

During 2022, after Russia invaded Ukraine, food inflation in Kenya nearly doubled from 8.9% to 15.4%. This sharp price rise was driven by rising global food and transport costs and also a multi-year drought, which reduced harvests across the region.

---

Read more: Kenya’s cost of living crisis: expert unpacks what’s driving it and what should be done

---

We analysed data from families’ smart meters, which showed how often they cooked with gas and how much they spent on fuel. We also surveyed the households to understand how rising food and fuel prices changed what they ate during 2022.

We found these drastic changes in dietary and cooking behaviours:

• three-quarters of families in our study changed the foods they cooked. More than half ate less meat and fish in 2022. They consumed more ugali (maize porridge, a staple food in Kenya), vegetables and fast food.

• half of families skipped more meals

• one-third reduced the amount of gas they consumed for cooking.

Following families through the food price crisis

Mukuru is a large informal settlement, with a population of 500,000-800,000 people. The families we surveyed were customers of a company called PayGo Energy. The company allows customers to pay for gas in smaller increments rather than having to purchase a full cylinder of gas at once.

As purchasing a full gas tank can be very costly for families living below the poverty line, a pay-as-you-go option can make cooking with gas more accessible for families. These families might otherwise cook with cheaper biomass fuels, like wood, that often generate more air pollution when burned.

---

Read more: Kenya’s maize price has doubled in a year: 6 ways to avoid a staple food shortage

---

Because PayGo Energy monitored their customers’ gas use using smart meters, we measured their use before and after the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war to estimate the change in their consumption. We also surveyed the families and held focus group discussions.

We used a United Nations World Food Programme tool which measures the steps households take over the previous week to cope with food shortages. We also asked participants whether they were skipping more meals or eating different foods than usual.

Families used less gas

We found that households greatly lowered the amount they cooked with gas in 2022 compared with 2021. Families only used their gas stove for an average of eight days a month in 2022 compared with 19 days a month in 2021. Their total cooking time per month decreased from 12.8 hours to 8.3 hours.

These results matched our survey findings, in which 63% of participants reported changing the type of food they consumed, 50% shared that they skipped more meals and 30% stated that they cooked with gas less frequently in 2022 compared with 2021. One participant said:

I have shifted to rice and spaghetti because it takes less time to cook hence saves gas.

People ate less food

Another person said:

There has been a high rise in food and fuel (prices). We have had to create a balance by lowering the food and maintaining the gas usage.

Reducing their cooking time led households to spend an average of 86 Kenyan shillings (US$0.66) less per month in 2022 compared with 2021. One person told us they were decreasing their spending on cooking and skipping meals:

Our children have a feeding programme at school which is advantageous so we adults can just skip meals and wait for supper to save.

Finding policy solutions

Although our research studied the effects of the Russian-Ukrainian war in 2022, geopolitical conflicts will likely continue to threaten global food and energy security, as demonstrated by the war between the US and Iran.

In 2026, the Strait of Hormuz closure disrupted energy markets and raised concerns about fertiliser supplies and food prices. The impacts in east Africa are likely similar to what they were in 2022.

---

Read more: 80% of Africa’s fertiliser is imported: how food systems can adapt to the Iran shock

---

As economic crises will continue to occur and as climate change intensifies, national and global policies can help protect against food insecurity risk. This will require direct safety nets for families, including cash transfers or payments from the government.

The government could also subsidise nutritious foods that are cheaper and faster to cook, such as canned beans, frozen vegetables and fortified foods.

---

Read more: Russia-Ukraine conflict is driving up wheat prices: this could fuel instability in Sudan

---

Supporting small-scale farmers with better seeds, access to credit and water-saving farming methods can also help communities produce more food and become more resilient to drought and climate change. Taken together, making these investments can help build a more adaptable food system.

– Drought and the war in Ukraine changed what families in Kenya could afford to eat – research tracked food and cooking gas use
– https://theconversation.com/drought-and-the-war-in-ukraine-changed-what-families-in-kenya-could-afford-to-eat-research-tracked-food-and-cooking-gas-use-287424

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Tackson Makandwa, Postdoctoral Researcher in the Department of Anthropology, University of KwaZulu-Natal

Over 250,000 people were registered as asylum seekers and refugees – people displaced by force – in South Africa in 2024. About 4% of them were from Burundi, some 3,000km away.

When people think about refugees, they often imagine families fleeing war and finding safety in another country. As social scientists, we’re also interested in what happens after they arrive. Does finding safety also mean finding a place to belong?

We believe that everyone has a story to tell, and we listened to the stories of Burundian refugees living in Chatsworth, Durban. This is a suburban area that was set aside for people of Indian descent under South Africa’s racial apartheid laws (repealed in 1991).

Our study brings to light the complex reasons these men and women left Burundi: conflict, political violence, persecution and fear for their lives. Burundi has endured decades of political turmoil, marked by recurrent episodes of ethnic violence, authoritarianism and civil wars.

We wanted to understand what everyday life looked like once Burundians were in the destination country.

South Africa allows refugees and asylum to settle and integrate without confining them to a camp system. However, displaced people must carve out lives within fragile economies, contested political spaces and precarious social landscapes.

---

Read more: Burundi at 60 is the poorest country on the planet: a look at what went wrong

---

Rather than focusing on the challenges of access to employment, shelter, or legal documents, we explored something less visible but equally important: how people hold on to hope while carrying the weight of loss, living with scars of war, grief and uncertainty.

We interviewed 15 Burundian refugees and asylum seekers, including their community leaders, in Chatsworth in 2025. From what emerged, the adopted “home” space of Chatsworth represents both safety and struggle.

The study reminds us to see refugees not simply as people in need of assistance, but as individuals with dreams, talents, families, and hopes for the future.

From Burundi to Chatsworth

Originally designed under apartheid’s Group Areas Act as a relocation site for Indian South Africans, Chatsworth has evolved into a multicultural township marked by socio-economic challenges and increasing migrant settlement.

For Burundian refugees, Chatsworth is both a space of possibility, where religious networks, informal economies and community solidarities provide forms of stability, and a space of precarity.

We collected data through walking in and around the area; we visited homes, restaurants and community spaces such as Catholic church venues. We met men from Burundi who were mostly contracted under a large South African grocery store delivery business.

Community leaders and other participants were accessed through organisations working with migrants, refugees and asylum seekers in the city of Durban, primarily through Refugee Pastoral Care, a programme run under the Roman Catholic Archdiocese of Durban.

Every few years, anti-foreigner sentiments and organised activities flare up in South Africa. In June 2026 another wave of violence swept across the country, including the central areas of Durban, not far from Chatsworth.

Nevertheless, some Burundians in our study viewed South Africa and Durban (and suburbs like Chatsworth) in particular, as a place where they could find shelter and protection from physical harm. They were grateful to have escaped the violence of their home country and to be able to work and support their families.

Yet some also said they never truly felt accepted by the surrounding communities. One participant summed it up powerfully by saying that Chatsworth was

safe for my body, but not for my heart.

Another important finding was that hope is not simply wishful thinking. For the people we spoke to, hope was something they practised every day. Hope meant working long hours so children could attend school. It meant saving small amounts of money whenever possible. It meant attending church or mosque, where faith offered strength during difficult times.

For some, education represented the greatest hope for the future. Parents believed that although they had lost opportunities because of conflict, their children might enjoy a better life. Hope became a reason to keep moving forward despite heavy uncertainty.

For Burundians, as a refugee or asylum seeker, sorrow remained a constant companion. In this study, almost everyone carried painful memories of Burundi. Some had lost family members during the conflict there.

These memories remained vivid even after many years. Some still dreamed of returning home one day to rebuild their lives in peace.

The research also revealed that women and men sometimes experienced displacement in different ways. Women carried the responsibility of caring for children while also earning an income through informal work. They described drawing strength from women’s savings groups and prayer meetings, where members encouraged one another and pooled small amounts of money to cope with daily challenges.

Some men, on the other hand, spoke about losing the social status they once enjoyed in Burundi. Former teachers, business owners and professionals now found themselves doing physically demanding work simply to survive. Although some felt they had lost part of their dignity and identity, providing for their families gave their lives purpose.

As one pointed out:

I was a big man back in Burundi, all the politicians and the people in the army, Hutu or Tutsi, they know me, I was a very successful businessman … but when the war started, I was hunted like an animal. They took everything …

Hope and heartbreak

In this study, hope and sorrow reveal themselves as existing side by side. It is easy to think of refugees either as victims or as inspiring examples of resilience. The reality is far more layered and complex.

The Burundian refugees we met were both hopeful and heartbroken. They mourned the lives they had lost, while working hard to build new ones. They appreciated the safety South Africa offered while still longing for home and acceptance.

Their stories show remarkable courage, but they also remind us that recovery from displacement is about much more than crossing a border. It is about rebuilding a life, finding a sense of belonging, and holding on to hope even when sorrow never fully disappears.

– Burundi refugees talk about life in South Africa after their long journey: hope and heartbreak side by side
– https://theconversation.com/burundi-refugees-talk-about-life-in-south-africa-after-their-long-journey-hope-and-heartbreak-side-by-side-288774