Le 14 novembre 2025, la commune de Mugina a chaleureusement accueilli le Président de la République, Son Excellence Evariste Ndayishimiye, ainsi que le nouvel Administrateur, Monsieur Saïdi Anicet, lors d’une cérémonie organisée en son honneur au terrain du chef-lieu à Mabayi devant une foule nombreuse, venue de toute la province de Bujumbura pour témoigner son soutien à leur nouveau leader.
Au cours de cette cérémonie, le Président Ndayishimiye a partagé des conseils précieux sur l’épanouissement personnel et économique, encourageant chacun à développer ses talents au service de la nation.
La commune de Mugina, répartie sur trois régions naturelles et dotée d’un fort potentiel de développement, a été présentée comme un exemple de territoire à valoriser. Le Président Ndayishimiye a encouragé le nouvel Administrateur à maintenir l’ordre et à favoriser une collaboration harmonieuse au sein de sa commune, comparant ce travail collectif à celui des abeilles qui œuvrent en parfaite synergie dans leur ruche.
Le Président s’est ensuite rendu sur le site minier de la Coopérative Dukorere Ahabona, sur la colline Mageyo. Cette industrie semi-mécanisée produit des lingots d’or destinés à la BRB. Sur place, le Chef de l’Etat burundais a suivi avec attention le processus de production, saluant l’engagement et le professionnalisme des jeunes impliqués dans cette activité.
Distribué par APO Group pour Présidence de la République du Burundi.
Le Président de la République, Son Excellence Evariste Ndayishimiye, a ce vendredi 14 novembre 2025 marqué la fin de la campagne de 100 jours consacrée à l’inventaire et à la valorisation des richesses du sous-sol burundais.
Il a procédé, à cette occasion, au lancement d’un convoi de 15 camions transportant près de 400 tonnes de minerais vers le marché international. Parmi ces ressources figurent le béryllium, le titane, l’améthyste illustrant la diversité et le potentiel stratégique du secteur minier burundais.
Lors d’un point de presse tenu au Palais de Kiriri, le Président Ndayishimiye a précisé que 29 sites miniers encadrés par le PAEEJ ont été identifiés et que 13 sont déjà opérationnels. Ces sites produisent 27 types de minerais et sont exploités principalement par des jeunes, bénéficiant d’un encadrement technique et professionnel. Le reste des sites, soit 267, relève du secteur privé, dont 119 sont consacrés à l’exploitation de l’or.
Le Chef de l’Etat burundais a en outre souligné que, malgré ce dynamisme, l’exploitation minière reste majoritairement artisanale et que l’absence de données géologiques complètes constitue un défi important pour le développement du secteur. Il a donc encouragé les entrepreneurs à investir davantage, à moderniser les méthodes d’exploitation et à valoriser pleinement le potentiel du sous-sol burundais.
Son Excellence Evariste Ndayishimiye, Chef de l’Etat burundais a également lancé un appel au patriotisme et à la transparence, mettant en garde contre toute perturbation de l’activité minière. Il a demandé au ministère en charge des mines de veiller à une exploitation responsable et rigoureuse, afin de garantir que ce secteur devienne un véritable moteur de développement économique pour le Burundi.
Avec cette campagne de 100 jours, le Père de la Nation dresse un bilan très positif pour le secteur minier burundais : l’inventaire des sites, la mobilisation de la jeunesse et le lancement des premiers convois d’exportation illustrent une dynamique prometteuse et porteuse d’avenir.
Distribué par APO Group pour Présidence de la République du Burundi.
The Chairperson of the African Union Commission, H.E. Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, is pleased to announce the commemoration of the fifth Awareness Week on Post-Conflict Reconstruction and Development (PCRD), scheduled for 17-23 November 2025.
Launched in 2021, the PCRD Awareness Week has become a continental advocacy platform for mobilizing political will, partnerships, and resources to advance the implementation of the revised African Union Policy on Post-Conflict Reconstruction and Development. It underscores the nexus between peace, security, governance, human rights, and development, serving as a rallying call for African solidarity and international partnership in rebuilding societies emerging from conflict.
The theme of this year’s PCRD Week, “Rebuilding Lives after Conflict through Reparative Justice,” reaffirms the AU’s commitment to promoting concrete initiatives to improve the lives and livelihoods of Africans and empower the continent’s resilient citizens to actively contribute to rebuilding their own societies.
The theme emphasizes the human dimension of peacebuilding, recognizing that sustainable recovery cannot be achieved without justice, dignity, and reparations for affected communities. It highlights the AU’s commitment to promoting inclusive, people-centered, and justice-based recovery processes that restore trust, address the legacies of conflict, and pave the way for lasting peace and development.
At this crucial moment, as many African countries navigate complex transitions, the Chairperson calls upon Member States, Regional Economic Communities, women, and youth, development partners, academia, to intensify their joint efforts in building resilient and peaceful societies. He underscores that reparative justice, through restitution, rehabilitation, and reconciliation, is essential for healing societies, restoring livelihoods, and preventing the recurrence of violence, with an emphasis on Mental Health and Psycho-Social Support to victims of violence on the continent.
The Chairperson takes note of the significant achievements recorded since the adoption of the Revised AU PCRD Policy, which reaffirms the Union’s holistic approach to post-conflict recovery, guided by the principles of national ownership, local participation, inclusivity, and accountability. He also commends the continued operationalization of the African Union Center for Post-Conflict Reconstruction and Development (AU-PCRD Center), as a critical platform for technical support to Member States in transition.
In this regard, the Chairperson expresses his deep appreciation to H.E. Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, President of the Arab Republic of Egypt and African Union Champion on PCRD, for his visionary leadership and steadfast commitment to advancing the AU’s PCRD agenda. His Excellency’s support continues to play a pivotal role in promoting African-led and nationally owned approaches to peacebuilding and development.
The Chairperson further commends the Peace and Security Council (PSC) for its sustained engagement on PCRD issues, including the 2025 session dedicated to reviewing the implementation of the AU PCRD Policy and the impact of the Awareness Week over the past five years. He underscores that the insights drawn from this review will inform the next generation of peacebuilding strategies in Africa.
The Chairperson also commends the continued commitment and solidarity of several AU Member States that have provided steadfast support to the institutional capacity-building efforts of the African Union. Their contributions in advancing training and knowledge development in key areas such as electoral observation, early warning and conflict prevention, mediation and dialogue facilitation, human rights protection, peace support operations, and security sector reform have been instrumental in strengthening the AU’s ability to act effectively and promptly in the field. This spirit of shared responsibility and collective action exemplifies the essence of African solutions to African problems, reinforcing the Union’s readiness to promote peace, stability, and democratic governance across the continent.
The AU Commission remains resolutely committed to supporting Member States in transition, through strengthened institutional capacity, inclusive governance, and community-based recovery initiatives. The Commission will continue to champion the empowerment of youth and women, foster partnerships with civil society and academia, and promote reparative and restorative approaches that bridge justice, reconciliation, and development.
The Chairperson concludes by reaffirming the African Union’s unwavering dedication to “Silencing the Guns” and achieving the aspirations of Agenda 2063: The Africa We Want. He calls upon all stakeholders, African and international alike, to unite their efforts in rebuilding lives, restoring dignity, and ensuring that post-conflict recovery translates into tangible peace dividends for all Africans.
The Chairperson of the African Union Commission warmly welcomes the signature of the Doha Framework for a Comprehensive Peace Agreement between the Government of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and the AFC/M23. This landmark step represents a significant advance toward restoring stability, rebuilding trust, and addressing the root causes of conflict in eastern DRC.
The Chairperson commends the parties for demonstrating courage, political will, and commitment to dialogue. He further expresses deep appreciation to the State of Qatar for its constructive facilitation and steadfast support to the peace process, as well as to the United States of America who has accompanied these efforts.
In the same context, the Chairperson equally commends the prominent role of H.E. Faure Essozimna Gnassingbé, President of the Council of Togo, the AU designated Mediator for the conflict in Eastern part of DRC, as well as the important role of the Panel of the five AU facilitators for the DRC peace process.
The African Union urges all stakeholders to uphold the letter and spirit of the Framework, ensure its timely and faithful implementation including through the timely conclusion of the six follow-on protocols.
The Chairperson reiterates the African Union’s unwavering commitment to proactively continue engaging and supporting the Doha Process and Washington track with a view to lay the foundation for lasting peace and stability in the DRC.
The Chairperson reaffirms the AU’s continued support to all initiatives aimed at fostering peace, security, reconciliation, and development across the Great Lakes region.
The Presidency invites members of the media to the Swearing-in Ceremony on Monday, 17 November 2025, of the newly appointed members of the National Executive.
President Cyril Ramaphosa has appointed Mr Willem Abraham Stephanus Aucamp as Minister of Forestry, Fisheries and Environment, in accordance with section 91(3)(b) of the Constitution of the Republic of South Africa.
The President has also appointed Ms Alexandra Lilian Amelia Abrahams as Deputy Minister of Trade, Industry and Competition, in accordance with section 93 (1) (a) of the Constitution.
The Swearing-in Ceremony will take place as follows:
Date: 17 November 2025 Time: 09h00 Venue: Union Buildings, Pretoria
Members of the media wishing to cover the ceremony should send their details to Khutjo Sebata on Khutjo@presidency.gov.za by no later than 17h00, 16 November 2025.
The proceedings will also be livestreamed on all PresidencyZA social media platforms.
Media enquiries: Vincent Magwenya, Spokesperson to the President – media@presidency.gov.za
The Gauteng Provincial Government is urging residents to remain vigilant and take precautions as rainy weather batters the province.
“The Gauteng Provincial Government urges all residents of the province to remain vigilant following the warning by the South African Weather Service (SAWS) of heavy rains that threaten life and property.
“The SAWS has released a Level 9 weather warning for parts of the Gauteng province for 16 November 2025,” said the provincial government in a statement.
This, as SAWS announced an Orange Level 9 warning in a post on the social media platform X, on Saturday.
The warning speaks to a “medium likelihood of disruptive rainfall that may result in severe impacts of widespread flooding of roads, settlements, as well as danger to life due to fast flowing streams over Gauteng and extreme western parts of Mpumalanga.”
The warning came as the Gauteng Provincial Disaster Management Centre and all emergency services have activated all systems and contingency plans to save lives and avert disasters across the province.
“The predictions indicate that areas may experience heavy downpours and hail, coupled with severe thunderstorms, strong winds, and possible flooding in vulnerable areas. These conditions pose an increased risk of flood-related incidents, lightning strikes, and infrastructure damage, all of which can disrupt essential services and threaten communities if not proactively managed,” said the provincial government.
Residents have been urged to stay indoors.
“Communities are warned to stay indoors, if possible, to stay away from metal objects and to try as much as possible to delay travel arrangements.”
In addition, the following precautions should be taken: • Avoid crossing rivers and swollen streams • Motorists are advised to use headlights, maintain low speeds and avoid flooded roads • If you are in a low-lying area and at risk of flooding, evacuate to higher ground • Keep away from power lines • Children should not play in puddles, open drains or ditches
Potential impacts of severe thunderstorms include: • Heavy downpours that may lead to localised flooding, especially in low-lying areas, flat plains and flood-prone roads. • Large amounts of small hail over open areas. • Damaging winds and excessive lightning, which may cause structural damage or fires. • Traffic disruptions due to flooded major roads. • Minor to major vehicle accidents resulting from poor visibility and slippery roads. • Damage to houses or structures, particularly roof damage in both formal and informal settlements.
Residents are encouraged to exercise caution and contact their respective municipal disaster management centres should they identify areas at risk of being flooded.
Earlier this week, the weather service advised that the central and eastern parts of South Africa are expected to experience widespread rainfall and severe thunderstorms, which both bring a risk of flooding, amongst others.
This is due to an intense weather system, a cut-off low pressure affecting the country from Saturday through to Monday (15 – 17 November 2025). –SAnews.gov.za
City of Tshwane warns of potential flooding as rain pours
The City of Tshwane (CoT) has called on residents living in low lying areas to immediately move to higher ground as heavy rain continues to fall over most parts of Gauteng.
In a statement, the CoT said its emergency Services Department received an impact-based warning from the South African Weather Service (SAWS) indicating a Level 9 alert for disruptive rain.
“This severe weather is due to an intense cut-off low-pressure system is expected to take place between this Saturday midnight (15 November 2025) until Sunday midnight (16 November 2025). Cut-off low-pressure systems are known to produce widespread rainfall and severe thunderstorms, significantly increasing the risk of flooding, infrastructure damage, and other weather-related hazards. Rainfall accumulations of 100 – 150mm are predicted for City of Tshwane.
“Residents in…flood-prone areas are strongly advised to immediately relocate temporarily to higher ground, as rapid water accumulation will lead to sudden and dangerous flooding,” the statement read.
Residents in the following areas should immediately move to higher ground: • Low-lying areas, • Riverbanks, • Floodplains, • Wetlands are expected to experience the highest impact. • Motorists are also at high risk and should avoid driving during heavy downpours as several roads are expected to become flooded, creating life-threatening conditions. • Remain indoors and move to higher floors if in high rise buildings, • Flooded roads often result in vehicles being swept away, increased drowning incidents, and households becoming displaced.
“The City of Tshwane has identified high-risk areas across all regions, and the Emergency Services Department will remain on high alert, continuously monitoring known flooding hotspots throughout the warning period. Response teams will be ready to intervene where necessary to safeguard lives and property.
“Residents are encouraged to follow updates from the City of Tshwane and the South African Weather Service for timely alerts and safety information,” the statement continued.
Residents are urged to observe the following safety precautions: • Avoid metal objects that conduct electricity, such as barbed-wire fences or power lines. • When outdoors, immediately move away from lakes, ponds or any large bodies of water during lightning activity. • Do not seek shelter under isolated trees or tall objects during thunderstorms. • Avoid crossing flooded roads, bridges or swollen streams. • If trapped in a vehicle during flooding, abandon the vehicle and move to higher ground.
“Residents are encouraged to stay informed by monitoring short-term weather forecasts and any warnings or alerts issued by the South African Weather Service,” the statement said.
Report any flooding incidents to the Emergency Services Department toll free at 107 or 012 358 6300/6400. The SAWS announced the Orange Level 9 warning in a post on the social media platform X, on Saturday.
The warning speaks to a “medium likelihood of disruptive rainfall that may result in severe impacts of widespread flooding of roads, settlements, as well as danger to life due to fast flowing streams over Gauteng and extreme western parts of Mpumalanga.” – SAnews.gov.za
HE Minister of State at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Dr. Mohammed bin Abdulaziz bin Saleh Al Khulaifi affirmed that the signing of the Doha Framework Agreement for Peace between the Government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and the Congo River Alliance (March 23 Movement), which took place Saturday, represents an important step toward consolidating peace and stability in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo.
His Excellency emphasized the State of Qatar’s commitment to continuing support for this process until comprehensive peace is achieved for the Congolese people.
In a press conference on the signing of the agreement, His Excellency expressed Qatar’s appreciation to both parties for demonstrating genuine political will and responsible commitment, which contributed to the achievement of this agreement.
He also valued their trust in Qatar’s role in facilitating and advancing the peace process.
His Excellency praised the strong support provided by HE President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo Felix Tshisekedi, and his commitment to a peaceful resolution of the conflict.
He also commended the efforts of the government’s negotiating delegation, the cooperation of the AFC/M23 Movement, and the contributions of partners, particularly the African Union, the Republic of Togo, the United States of America, the United Kingdom, the Republic of Rwanda, and the French Republic.
He noted that Qatar’s efforts in this regard began when HH the Amir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani hosted both HE President Tshisekedi and HE President Paul Kagame of the Republic of Rwanda in Doha, and when HE President Tshisekedi chose to open the door for dialogue with the AFC/M23 Movement.
Since March 2025, Doha hosted rounds of direct negotiations between the two parties, conducted in a spirit of positivity and high responsibility, leading to the agreement.
His Excellency stated that this progress was built on the momentum generated by the Declaration of Principles signed in Doha on July 19, 2025, which laid the foundation for a critical phase of confidence-building measures and opened the path for dialogue between the parties.
Over the past months, the parties achieved notable progress on key issues, including the signing of the ceasefire monitoring and verification mechanism on October 14, 2025, and the detainee release mechanism on September 14, 2025.
He noted that the declaration marked a pivotal step that paved the way for the framework and reinforced the shared commitment to peaceful solutions through dialogue and understanding, reflecting the genuine will of both parties to end the conflict and achieve lasting peace in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo.
His Excellency emphasized that the signing of this framework does not represent the end of the road, but rather the beginning of a comprehensive peace process and rounds of negotiations to be held in the near future to discuss several core issues.
He stressed that peaceful solutions and political dialogue are the optimal path to ending conflicts and fulfilling the aspirations of the region’s peoples.
He reaffirmed Qatar’s steadfast commitment to preventive diplomacy and constructive dialogue as a strategic choice for conflict resolution, emphasizing that Qatar’s mediation experience is based on direct communication between parties and the creation of common ground that contributes to building trust and enhancing peace opportunities. His Excellency considered the signing of the Doha Framework Agreement for Peace today a historic opportunity that entails the responsibility of implementation by both parties.
He pointed out that Qatar’s role in this process is not aimed at resolving all disputes at once, but rather at establishing a framework containing a number of core protocols to be negotiated, which will form part of the comprehensive peace agreement.
These protocols include: restoring state authority, reforms, arrangements for inclusive national governance, issues of identity and citizenship, return and resettlement of internally displaced persons and refugees, as well as economic recovery and enhancement of social services.
He explained that the comprehensive peace agreement will consist of the framework agreement and eight protocols, two of which have already been signed, while six protocols will be negotiated between the parties within two weeks from the date of signing the framework agreement.
The parties will also agree that the government will establish an independent commission to promote truth, reconciliation, and accountability for crimes, and to provide recommendations on appropriate reparations within a transitional justice process.
The organization and operation of this commission will be consistent with the constitution and international law.
Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Saheed Babajide Owonikoko, Researcher, Centre for Peace and Security Studies, Modibbo Adama University of Technology
For the second time in five years, Nigeria has been designated a “country of particular concern” by the US government, in both cases by President Donald Trump. The first time was in 2020 but the designation was removed in 2021.
The November 2025 redesignation can be traced to, among other things, a campaign by US congressman Riley Moore, who alleged that there was an “alarming and ongoing persecution of Christians” in Nigeria.
Nigeria refuted this claim. President Bola Tinubu, in a statement, argued that the US characterisation of Nigeria did not reflect the country’s reality or values.
But what does the designation mean for Nigeria? And what should Nigeria’s response be? As a scholar who has studied Nigeria’s insecurity and identity crises, I have some suggestions.
Nigeria must prevent the diplomatic row with the US from progressing further, and act decisively against insecurity for all Nigerians.
To achieve this, the Nigerian government should look beyond military capability. The country needs governance and administrative restructuring that empowers sub-national and local authorities to address local issues. This bottom-up approach will address insecurity better than the current top-down approach.
What ‘country of particular concern’ means
The classification of a country as being of particular concern is outlined in the United States International Religious Freedom Act (IRFA) of 1998. Under section 402 of the act, “country of particular concern” is a designation given to a foreign country whose government has engaged in or tolerated especially severe violations of the religious freedom of its citizens.
By this definition, a country may not be directly involved in violating its citizens’ religious freedom, but culpable for not acting decisively against those who do.
For a country to be classified as such, it is first placed on a special watch list. This allows for an assessment of whether there is a serious violation of religious freedom.
The designation is part of US foreign policy for promoting human rights globally.
Why Nigeria was given this status
Nigeria was designated a country of particular concern because of allegations of “genocide” against Christians there. Since Nigeria’s independence in 1960, identity conflicts have become a common occurrence. But there’s a new dimension with the emergence of terror groups and intensifying farmer-herder disputes.
A study I conducted in early 2025 revealed that between 2010 and 2022, a total of 230 attacks specifically targeted Christians, 82 of which were between 2019 and 2022.
Several other attacks, such as the Runji killing in Kaduna State in April 2023, the Apata and Yelwata massacres in Benue State in March and June 2025, respectively, and the Mangu killings in Plateau State, have also taken place.
This shows that there are targeted attacks against Christians in parts of Nigeria. But they are a fraction of the attacks and killings carried out by non-state armed groups in the country.
As one study argued, Christians make up roughly half of Nigeria’s population, but attacks explicitly directed against them account for about 5% of total reported violent incidents.
Therefore, framing Nigeria’s insecurity in terms of anti-Christian violence alone oversimplifies the broader dynamics of the country’s national insecurity.
How this will affect Nigeria
The International Religious Freedom Act stipulates 15 required sanctions under section 405(a). Section 407 allows the president of the US to waive these sanctions based on national interest or to further the purpose of the act. For this reason, in most cases, the designation is seldom followed by sanctions.
Several countries have been exempted from sanctions even when designated as countries of particular concern. Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have been repeatedly designated but the US has never sanctioned them.
Even Nigeria’s designation in 2020 was not followed by sanctions. The US continued to provide security assistance, military cooperation and development aid to Nigeria. The US only used the period of designation to call for improved protection of religious communities and accountability for perpetrators.
For the recent designation, however, Trump has threatened to cut aid to Nigeria and take military action against terrorists in Nigeria.
The US, through the US Agency for International Development, provided development assistance worth US$7.89 billion between 2015 and 2024 to support health, education, economic and humanitarian development. But all of that has reduced since the scrapping of the agency and a drop in foreign aid.
The US could end that deal, but that would undermine Nigeria’s ability to address terrorism and general security challenges. It would counter the purpose of the International Religious Freedom Act. Therefore, I believe the US may waive this.
Direct military intervention in Nigeria is becoming a possibility and Trump is most likely going to do it without respect for Nigeria’s sovereignty. He has ordered the US Department of War to draw up plans, and they have come up with options. But I do not see this solving the problem of insecurity in Nigeria. It may instead lead to the dispersal of terrorists, complicating Nigeria’s insecurity. Or terrorists might increase mass kidnappings and hostage-taking for shields.
How Nigeria should respond
Nigeria must prevent diplomatic rows with the US because they are partners in the fight against terrorism. A discussion about how the US can improve Nigeria’s capacity to address its security challenges would be a good step.
Furthermore, Nigeria’s limited capacity to safeguard lives and property points to deeper structural and governance challenges. The country’s security architecture is too centralised and works top-down. This makes it harder for sub-national and local authorities to provide security and address the drivers of violence at the local level.
Nigeria should go beyond improving its military response. To enhance security, it also needs to reform its governance and administrative structures.
– US-Nigeria relations: what it means to be a ‘country of particular concern’ and why it matters – https://theconversation.com/us-nigeria-relations-what-it-means-to-be-a-country-of-particular-concern-and-why-it-matters-269044
Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Jonathan Powell, Visiting assistant professor, University of Kentucky
Guinea-Bissau heads into its November elections against the backdrop of a deepening crisis of electoral legitimacy across Africa. In recent months, a string of elections has reinforced the perception that incumbency, not competition, remains the standard.
In Cameroon, 92-year-old Paul Biya claimed an eighth consecutive term after officially winning 53.7% of a vote widely denounced as fraudulent and met with protests.
In Tanzania, President Samia Suluhu Hassan was declared the victor with an implausible 98% of ballots cast in her favour following a poll marred by numerous irregularities and followed by protests and a crackdown unprecedented in the country’s history.
And in Côte d’Ivoire, President Alassane Ouattara comfortably secured a fourth term with nearly 90% of the vote, extending his hold on power despite the constitution’s two-term limit.
Across the continent, including west Africa, these outcomes have fuelled public cynicism and highlighted a worrying erosion of democratic norms, as leaders manipulate constitutions, neutralise opponents, and hollow out institutions meant to safeguard accountability.
It is within this climate of regional disillusionment that Bissau-Guineans will head to the polls on 23 November.
The west African country’s upcoming election once offered the potential to demonstrate a growing electoral resilience, a deepening of institutional strength that would help the country break from past legacies of instability. Instead, the process has been repeatedly undermined by President Umar Sissoco Embaló.
As social scientists who have written extensively on political instability in Africa, we believe that such dynamics all but guarantee another entry to the roster of failed elections across the region.
At stake is more than Guinea-Bissau’s democratic credibility. Its unravelling speaks to a wider regional crisis in which incumbents erode legitimacy not by abolishing elections, but by emptying them of real competition.
A legacy of instability
In contrast to long-tenured leaders like Biya or Ouattara, or enduring parties such as Tanzania’s Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), Guinea-Bissau’s voters navigate an electoral system defined by unpredictability and instability, especially during election season.
His rule was marred by conflict, including an 11-month civil war triggered by a rebellion from former army chief of staff Ansumane Mané. Vieira’s long first tenure ended in a second coup in May 1999, and his second term was cut short in 2009 when he was murdered by members of the armed forces.
The 2012 upheaval halted a runoff election between Carlos Domingos Gomes Júnior and Kumba Ialá.
The 2014 election brought José Mário Vaz to the presidency, defeating a candidate with close ties to the military. When Vaz completed his term in 2020, he became Guinea-Bissau’s first president to finish a constitutionally defined tenure.
Questions arose even before Vaz’s exit. After Umar Sissoco Embaló was declared the winner over Pereira in the 29 December runoff, Pereira challenged the results. Ignoring the ongoing legal process, Embaló arranged an inauguration ceremony for himself in February 2020.
Embaló then ordered the deployment of the military to state institutions, including the National Assembly. Cassamá stepped down on his second day, citing death threats.
The supreme court ultimately declined to rule on the dispute after its chief judge fled the country, also citing death threats. The crisis was effectively resolved by the Economic Community of West African States’ (Ecowas) recognition of the Embaló government. Uncertainty, however, would continue to plague the new government.
The main opposition party, the PAIGC, formally regained parliamentary control in the June 2023 elections, setting the stage for continued confrontation between the presidency and the legislative majority. Embaló again pursued the dissolution of parliament in December 2023.
Although Embaló’s term officially expired in February 2025, the supreme court later ruled he could remain in office until 4 September.
Even after that date, Embaló remained in office. These manoeuvres have heightened concerns about the erosion of constitutional norms.
Concerns over the broader electoral environment have also come to the fore. Legislative elections initially scheduled for late November 2024 were indefinitely postponed due to alleged funding and logistical challenges. Earlier, Embaló had declared he would not seek reelection, only to reverse course in March 2025.
More recently, the PAIGC’s chosen presidential candidate, Domingos Simões Pereira, was barred from contesting the November election after the supreme court rejected his candidacy over the late submission of documents.
For the first time in Guinea-Bissau’s history, the country’s oldest and most influential party will be excluded from the presidential race.
The country has fallen in the Electoral Democracy Index, provided by the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem). As shown in the graph below, the decline even outpaces the drop witnessed after military coups in 2003, 2012, and the assassination of Vieira in 2009.
The V-Dem data end in 2024, and thus do not yet capture the 2025 election cycle.
Above: Electoral Democracy (V-Dem) in Guinea-Bissau, 1975-2024.Author
Performative elections, entrenched power
What is unfolding in Guinea-Bissau is not an isolated crisis. It is part of a wider regional pattern in which leaders recognise that elections can be held, even celebrated, while hollowing out nearly everything that once made them meaningful. Critically, the recent coups in the region have been linked, in part, to popular frustration with flawed electoral processes.
Embaló has not entrenched himself with the personal longevity of Cameroon’s Biya or the institutional dominance of Tanzania’s CCM, but the mechanisms he has used to tilt the field look strikingly similar.
The removal of viable opponents, the manipulation of constitutional timelines, the coercive use of the security sector, and the corrosion of judicial independence all signal a shift away from accountability.
Guinea-Bissau was for the first time in decades poised to demonstrate that democratic resilience could be strengthened. Instead, the 2025 election cycle risks becoming another example of how fragile gains can be reversed with impunity.
– Guinea-Bissau’s presidential poll has already failed the credibility test – https://theconversation.com/guinea-bissaus-presidential-poll-has-already-failed-the-credibility-test-269461
