Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Roger Southall, Professor of Sociology, University of the Witwatersrand
Love her or loathe her, it is hard to deny that Helen Zille is one of the most remarkable politicians South Africa’s democracy has yet seen. Remarkable because she has served in so many high-profile public roles – as mayor of Cape Town, premier of the Western Cape province, leader of the opposition, and leader of the Democratic Alliance before later becoming the party’s federal chair, and wielding power behind the scenes.
She has never steered clear of controversy, and indeed, revels in it in a way which discomforts her opponents.
She is both feared and respected for her intelligence, diligence, hard work, determination, competence, courage, integrity – and let’s face it, not a little dose of arrogance, which at times has led her unnecessarily into trouble, as with her infamous “colonialism” tweet, which caused widespread offence.
Read more: Zille, tweeting and inanity: more reasons for white South Africans to shut up
But this points to another quality she has as a politician: she has a thickness of skin which would make a bull elephant blush. Additional to all this, there has never been any taint of financial scandal about her throughout her long years in public life.
So you can see why her political opponents, and particularly the African National Congress (ANC), are running scared following the announcement by the Democratic Alliance that she will be their candidate for mayor of Johannesburg in the local elections in 2026. At age 74, she ain’t no spring chicken, but she can still do a respectable dance, and intends to waltz her way into the mayoral chair.
However, she may well become the best mayor Johannesburg has never had.
Why she might win
Zille has pitched her running for mayor as a “local gal returning to her roots”, where she grew up, where she worked as a journalist and where, she tells us, she fell in love in a city she has always loved and knows back to front.
And why?
Because she is coming to save it, descending from the clouds of Democratic Alliance heaven in Cape Town – a city it has run since 2009 – to rescue the good citizens of Johannesburg from ANC hell. An ANC, she tells us – and who can deny it? – which has manufactured political instability and municipal collapse. An ANC which has collapsed the most basic of services so that taps in many areas run dry, sewage swamps the pot-holed roads, household waste mounts up, and electricity supply has become erratic. An ANC which has allowed corruption to thrive.
Read more: Johannesburg’s problems can be solved – but it’s a long journey to fix South Africa’s economic powerhouse
Zille does not lack confidence and she talks a good talk. Local government is not rocket science, she says. It’s common sense, it’s getting down to basics, it’s about political will, it’s about proper management of resources. It’s about having the competence and determination to ensure that water flows through the pipes again, that electricity is restored, roads are repaired, and collection of waste is secured.
And how is this to be done? By streamlining the city’s administration, by rationalising its bureaucracy, cutting back the fat, and increasing the investment in maintenance and infrastructure which the ANC has so lamentably allowed to lapse. No community, no suburb will be ignored.
Nirvana is in prospect – but only if she is given the chance to restore the city to its former glory.
We should not doubt that Zille is propagating a gospel that appeals beyond the boundaries of traditional Democratic Alliance support. She has already received the vocal support of one-time prominent ANC praise-singers, such as former University of the Witwatersrand vice-chancellor Adam Habib and Ebrahim Harvey, biographer of former president Kgalema Motlanthe.
Both have pronounced a verdict that will justify defection from the ANC: Johannesburg is in a crisis brought on by ANC misrule and a vote for Zille will not be a vote for the Democratic Alliance, but a vote for the one person with the character, competence and drive to turn the city around.
Although their heresy may not be enough to convince traditional ANC supporters to break with the past, it may appeal to their children, who are not so bound by their grandparents’ and parents’ loyalties.
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Zille had to climb over other Democratic Alliance bodies to win her nomination and has doubtless left some bruised egos in her wake. But this will not stop the DA uniting behind her.
The party smells blood, and it’s coloured the black, green and gold of the ANC. Win control of Joburg, hang on to Cape Town, and the Democratic Alliance will be running South Africa’s two major economic hubs. Turn Joburg around, provide a better life for all its citizens regardless of where they live, and the Democratic Alliance will hope to shed its reputation as the party for whites and the well-off, positioning itself nicely for the next general election. It’s a great scenario for the Democratic Alliance.
But there are obstacles in the way.
Why she might lose
To become mayor, Zille will need the backing of a majority of Johannesburg’s 270 seat council. At the last local election in 2021, the ANC emerged as the largest party with 33% of the vote and 91 seats. The Democratic Alliance came in second with 26% and 71. What followed initially was a Democratic Alliance minority government, before this was collapsed in September 2022 by the Economic Freedom Fighters (29 seats) throwing its lot in with the ANC, which took office as the major party in a coalition.
It all became a messy and disheartening story for Johannesburg’s voters, who saw the politicians scrabbling for power and perks while the city went into decline. But it demonstrates what the Democratic Alliance is up against.
And, as Zille has acknowledged, the mixed-member proportional electoral system used in local elections makes it enormously difficult for any single party to win an absolute majority. Even if the Democratic Alliance emerged as the largest party, it would have to fish for support among other parties to form a viable coalition.
Read more: South African local government elections: why a great deal hangs on the outcome
Meanwhile, Zille has ruled out striking any deal with the Economic Freedom Fighters and is equally unlikely to strike any agreement with Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe Party. Perhaps she might be able to do a deal with the ANC in an echo of the government of national unity? Or will the ANC be so averse to joining a council led by Zille that it opts for what the DA terms a “doomsday coalition” with the EFF and/or MK?
Much will depend on the nature of the campaign, and whether Zille can avoid making the gaffes to which she is prone. In her speeches to black audiences she must avoid sounding like Madam condescending to Eve – the two characters in a popular South African cartoon strip.
Furthermore, however irrelevant they may be to local government, she may struggle to sidestep broader political issues, such as whether she is prepared to declare Israel is committing genocide in Gaza.
Yet Zille will count on voters wanting to have water in their taps.
The Iron Lady’s last stand?
The DA is risking much in putting Zille forward for mayor in Johannesburg. It knows she antagonises as many voters as she attracts and that she never fails to provoke controversy. But the party clearly sees her as well worth the gamble. She has name recognition far and wide. She will draw attention. She is guaranteed to provoke debate. She will ensure that the party’s existing voters turn out in droves while large swathes of the ANC’s supporters may stay at home.
The Democratic Alliance also knows that Zille’s nomination will ensure that the race in Johannesburg will attract national attention and is banking on it reverberating in its favour nationally. And it also knows that this is very possibly the Iron Lady’s last stand.
If she does become mayor, Zille will be 75 when she gets the job, and if she serves a full term, she will be 80 come the following local election. Many within the DA may be reckoning that, at that point, Zille will conclude that it is time to call it quits and exit the political arena gracefully to join the knitting circle in the retirement home in Cape Town where she lives. Even she will conclude by then that she will be too old to continue.
Surely she would, wouldn’t she? Don’t count on it.
– Helen Zille: will competence, courage and a dose of arrogance be enough to get her elected as Johannesburg’s mayor?
– https://theconversation.com/helen-zille-will-competence-courage-and-a-dose-of-arrogance-be-enough-to-get-her-elected-as-johannesburgs-mayor-266220
