Category: MIL-OSI

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Ekta Patel, Scientist, International Livestock Research Institute

Aquaculture – the farming of fish and other aquatic organisms – is the world’s fastest-growing food production system.

The sharpest growth in aquaculture is happening in Africa. Average annual growth rates have exceeded 10% in recent years measured by production value.

Over the past 10 years in Lake Victoria, shared between Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania, aquaculture has transformed from a small-scale enterprise into a vast and diverse commercial industry.

Lake Victoria is the world’s second-largest freshwater lake. Cage aquaculture, the farming of fish within cages, has expanded rapidly in the lake. The cages are made of nets in frames, and are mostly stocked with Nile tilapia. The number of fish in a cage farm varies from tens to hundreds of thousands. The sector accounts for about 25% of the fish Kenya produces.

These cage farms support the nutrition and livelihoods of more than 40 million people in the lake’s basin.

We are environmental scientists who study biological threats to public health. From our research, we have found that this industry faces two interconnected challenges: large-scale fish deaths; and resistance to the drugs used to treat diseased fish.

Repeated, large-scale die-offs are known as fish kills. They involve the rapid death of hundreds of thousands, or sometimes millions, of fish within a few days. Many farmers who find dead fish in their cages simply toss them into the lake, where they can easily wash up against another cage and transmit disease.

Farmers and fish health professionals often use antimicrobials, which are drugs like antibiotics, to manage and treat infectious diseases. But antimicrobial resistance is a rising threat. A misuse of these drugs is fuelling the emergence of resistant bacteria, making treatments ineffective.

Because of the scale of these problems, we set out to systematically examine both the causes of mass fish deaths and the spread of antimicrobial resistance in Lake Victoria’s cage aquaculture industry.

Our study was conducted in Kenya. We found that fish deaths in Lake Victoria’s tilapia industry are likely driven by water quality problems. These include low oxygen levels, pollution and harmful algal blooms. Algal blooms refer to the rapid growth and subsequent decomposition of algae. This can lead to the release of toxins and rapid drops in dissolved oxygen levels.

These water quality problems create openings for infectious bacteria to thrive.

To address this, we suggest:

• stronger disease reporting systems to enable a prompt response from industry authorities

• improved diagnostics to determine the cause of fish mortalities

• clear guidelines for antimicrobial use among farmers.

Without these interventions, the sustainability of a rapidly growing industry – and the food security of millions in east Africa – remains at risk.

Our findings

Our study surveyed 172 cage farm operations. These were across the five Kenyan counties in Lake Victoria (Kisumu, Siaya, Busia, Homa Bay and Migori).

We surveyed cage farmers’ perceptions and responses to fish kills. We also carried out a rapid-response investigation of a mass tilapia mortality event, and disease surveillance. Finally, we tested the antimicrobial resistance of identified bacterial pathogens.

Between 2020 and 2023, the farmers in our study reported 82 large-scale fish kill events in Lake Victoria, with more than 1.8 million tilapia dying.

These events had major economic consequences, but reporting and treatment were limited.

We found that only 39% of farmers informed the relevant Kenyan authorities. These include the Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute, Kenya Fisheries Service and county fisheries offices.

Just 17% attempted treatment. This usually included applying salt to the water without obtaining a diagnosis. This points to gaps in reporting systems and access to fish health services.

Farmers mostly attributed fish deaths to poor water quality. Nearly 90% perceived links to changes in water colour and smell, high temperatures or algal blooms.

Harmful algal blooms happen when phytoplankton (tiny organisms in the water) quickly multiply and then decompose. These blooms produce dangerous toxins and can rapidly lower the levels of dissolved oxygen in the water. They can lead to fish deaths, and can affect human health if people eat contaminated fish or drink the water.

Harmful algal blooms in Lake Victoria are driven by the runoff from industries and the excessive use of fertilisers.

A smaller number of farmers cited human activities like stocking, handling or pollution.

Very few directly associated mortalities with disease. This probably reflects limited training to recognise clinical signs of infection.

Our rapid-response investigation of a major fish kill in Busia County supported these observations. On arrival, we found discoloured, foul-smelling water. There were floating dead molluscs and low dissolved oxygen levels, conditions typical of harmful algal blooms.

From freshly deceased tilapia, we isolated three bacterial pathogens: Aeromonas jandaei, Enterobacter hormaechei and Staphylococcus epidermidis. These opportunistic pathogens often cause disease secondary to a primary stressor, such as poor water quality or rough handling.

This was the first time bacterial pathogens were successfully identified from a fish kill in Lake Victoria.

We found that bacterial tilapia pathogens were more commonly found within cage farms with clogged cage nets, likely because the nets reduce water circulation and worsen cage water quality.

Finally, antimicrobial resistance testing revealed resistant strains among the bacterial samples.

These results can guide veterinarians and policymakers in making decisions about antimicrobial use in aquaculture.

What next

Our findings point to a central conclusion: opportunistic pathogens are widespread in Lake Victoria. And fish disease outbreaks are often driven by poor water quality.

Action is needed at multiple levels.

At the landscape scale, nutrient runoff into the lake must be reduced. This requires improving sanitation infrastructure and promoting more efficient fertiliser use in agriculture. This will help prevent harmful algal blooms.

Fish farmers can:

• set up cages in deeper waters with better circulation

• keep cage nets clean to allow water flow

• dispose of dead fish by composting or burning rather than throwing them back into the lake

• rapidly report mortality events so authorities can investigate

• improve feeding practices, such as using high-quality feed and avoiding overfeeding, to reduce nutrient loading into the lake.

A One Health approach, which recognises the interconnectedness of human, animal and environmental health, is important for the sustainability of Lake Victoria’s aquaculture.

This means monitoring water quality and pollution, and establishing cross-sectoral collaborations for rapid disease response. Farmers also need training.

Improved production practices can decrease the need for antibiotics in the first place. Coordinated monitoring systems and cross-sectoral collaboration can help promote their responsible use.

– Fish farming is booming in Lake Victoria, but pollution and disease are wiping out millions. How to reduce losses
– https://theconversation.com/fish-farming-is-booming-in-lake-victoria-but-pollution-and-disease-are-wiping-out-millions-how-to-reduce-losses-266073

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Misheck Mutize, Post Doctoral Researcher, Graduate School of Business (GSB), University of Cape Town

The decision by the rating agency Moody’s to downgrade Senegal’s sovereign credit rating in late October 2025 triggered an immediate week-long sell-off in Senegal’s Eurobonds. This was the third downgrade in one year. It left the country’s 16-year bond trading at a 40% discount to its face value. Meaning, for every one dollar denominated bond, it was being sold for 60c on the market.

Moody’s decision once again raised questions about the accuracy of decisions taken by the world’s three biggest rating agencies – Moody’s, Standard and Poor’s, and the Fitch – when it comes to African countries.

One of the main reasons for Moody’s downgrade was Senegal’s decision to turn to regional markets to raise capital. Since the start of 2025, the government has raised over US$5 billion through the West African Economic and Monetary Union regional bond market. This is approximately 12% of Senegal’s US$42 billion public debt.

Moody’s interpreted Senegal’s actions as weakness, warning that dependence on regional investors could expose Senegal to ‘reversals in investor sentiment’. In other words, the rating agency treated the fact that Senegal had mobilised domestic and regional capital as a new source of risk. On the contrary, S&P recognise this strength.

I have been researching Africa’s capital markets and the institutions that govern them for decades. Drawing in this, I argue here that Moody’s interpretation is both unfair and analytically flawed. Tapping into local and regional capital markets isn’t a liability. It’s a model of the fiscal sovereignty African countries have been encouraged by economists and African leaders to pursue for decades. This enhances self-reliance and reduces vulnerability to external shocks.

At the heart of the problem lies a narrow definition of risk. Rating models for emerging markets still prioritise narrow macroeconomic indicators – per-capita GDP, foreign-exchange reserves, current-account balances and IMF programme status. They don’t capture qualitative factors like domestic investor participation, fiscal adaptability and the development of regional markets.

Regional markets versus global

Countries worldwide are increasingly relying on local and regional markets to raise capital. In Africa, South Africa, Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Mali and Côte d’Ivoire have been mirroring patterns seen in Mexico, Brazil and Indonesia, prioritising domestic and regional borrowing.

Regional and local-market financing has a number of benefits for countries.

First, it reduces foreign exchange exposure by reducing the needs for huge foreign currency reserves for debt servicing.

Second, it strengthens domestic market liquidity by expanding the number of local investors on the bond market.

Third, it keeps debt-service payments within Africa’s financial ecosystem. Retaining capital on the continent and reducing dependence on volatile external financing.

Lastly, it minimises market swings. Domestic bondholders are largely local institutional investors — a more stable and less speculative pool of capital that understands local market dynamics far better than external rating agencies.

Senegal’s regional bond issues have been performing extremely well because investors want to buy more than the government is even offering — a sign of strong demand. The interest rate it paid, averaging 7%, was also much lower than the much higher (double-digit) interest rates it would have been charged if it had borrowed from international markets through Eurobonds. In simple terms, borrowing locally was cheaper, safer and more attractive for Senegal than borrowing globally.

Investors from across the region – pension funds, banks and insurance companies – have been lining up to purchase the bonds on all the five issuance in 2025.

Senegal’s success boosts confidence among local investors and encourage other African governments to tap their own capital markets. A powerful incentive to mobilise more African capital for the continent’s development.

When ratings become a source of risk

Moody’s downgrade triggered immediate selling of Senegal’s Eurobonds due in 2048, driving their price down to about 72 cents on the dollar. That slump was not because the country’s economic fundamentals were deteriorating, it was sentiment triggered by the downgrade.

This dynamic creates a damaging feedback loop. Negative ratings lead to investor flight, which raises borrowing costs and validates the pessimism. In effect, the perception of risk becomes the cause of risk.

This cycle undermines the policy credibility of African governments. It disincentivises reform and discourages innovation.

It’s not the first time that rating agencies have cautioned risks that have a near zero chance of materialising and in the process, shaken investor confidence and caused capital fight. These include:

• During the COVID crisis S&P warned of imminent food shortages and foreign-exchange depletion in Egypt despite stable remittance inflows and active central-bank management.

• In 2023 the Kenyan government announced plans to repurchase part of its maturing Eurobond. This was a prudent debt-management step, but Moody’s warned it would be interpreted as a sign of distress. This never happened. In fact, Moody’s later upgraded Kenya’s outlook, largely based on the success of same bond restructuring which it warned against 10 months earlier.

What needs to change

Credit ratings are supposed to guide investors, not govern economies through certain policy inclinations. But in Africa’s case, they often do both. Because many institutional investors are required to hold investment-grade securities, a single downgrade can abruptly cut a country off from international capital markets.

The consequences are immediate and severe – higher interest rates, reduced access to credit, weaker currencies and a perception of crisis. This sequence can unfold even when a country’s underlying fundamentals are still strong. Overly cautious rating assessments not only reflect negative market sentiment, they create it.

Africa does not need special treatment, it needs balanced and context-sensitive rating evaluation.

Accurate risk assessment would recognise the strategic logic of financing through domestic and regional markets. It would acknowledge that by financing through domestic and regional markets, African governments are building alternatives that are better suited to current realities.

Global agencies must therefore recalibrate their analysis to account for domestic and regional market depth, fiscal adaptability, strength and stability of Africa’s internal markets. Ignoring these and focusing solely on perceived weaknesses is to tell an incomplete story to investors.

Without such adjustments, rating agencies will continue to lag behind economic reality and risk becoming instruments of distortion rather than insight.

– Senegal’s credit rating: Moody’s latest downgrade was questionable – here’s why
– https://theconversation.com/senegals-credit-rating-moodys-latest-downgrade-was-questionable-heres-why-269473