MIL Africa Engine

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Arno J. van Niekerk, Senior lecturer in Economics, University of the Free State

Over the past two decades, economic strength, trade flows, technological leadership and even consumer demand have been moving steadily from west to east. This transformation is redrawing economic maps. It is also raising urgent questions about co-operation, competition and inclusion in a multipolar world. Lecturer in economics and finance Arno van Niekerk answers questions about these issues, which he explores in a new book, West to East: A New Global Economy in the Making?

What indicates a shift from west to east?

Brics countries, largely driven by China and India, overtook the G7 countries in their share of global GDP in 2018. As Figure 1 shows, the Brics contribution has grown from 32.33% of global GDP to 35.43% in 2024 (after being at 21.37% in 2000).

Figure 1

The G7’s share decreased to 29.64%, from 43.28% in 2000.

This marks a historic turning point. Economic leadership that was long concentrated in the west has decisively shifted towards emerging economies.

Another strong indicator of the shift is the change in global shares of trade of the G7 and Brics countries. This is particularly true of exports. Data shows that Brics+ (11 countries, including new members) captured 28% of world exports in 2024, closing in on the G7’s 32%.

The rebalancing of global trade dynamics has wide-ranging consequences for international business. It means, especially in the case of China and India, that these economies are doing more than expanding in scale. They are also integrating effectively into global value chains, improving productivity and raising living standards.

As shown in Figure 2, the share of global merchandise exports of the G7 countries fell from 45.1% in 2000 to 28.9% in 2023. For their part, the Brics+ share rose from 10.7% (2000) to 23.3% (2023).

Figure 2

There are other indicators too:

• Over two-thirds of global foreign exchange reserves are held in Asia. In particular, in China (US$3 trillion), Japan, India and South Korea. Large reserves indicate that a nation earns more from exports, investment inflows and remittances than it spends on imports and debt payments.

• China has displaced western dominance in foreign direct investment in developing regions. Through its Belt and Road Initiative – involving over 150 countries – it has become the world’s largest source of outbound foreign direct investment.

• Asia now accounts for more than half of the global middle class, driving demand growth. Asia is projected to represent over 50% of global consumer spending. This compares with less than 20% in 1990.

• China, India, South Korea and Japan have become leaders in financial technology, artificial intelligence and 5G adoption. China now files more international patents annually than the US and European Union combined. Specifically, the tech rivalry between the US and China illustrates the change in technological leadership.

What does this shift tell us about economic co-operation?

Countries in both the east and the west need to make more intentional efforts. This is necessary, firstly, to address the growing geoeconomic tension. And secondly to move the world towards a shared vision for sustainable economic progress that benefits all countries.

Such co-operation needs to go beyond traditional trade and investment agreements. It should be deliberately structured to reduce inequalities, strengthen resilience and embed sustainability.

I identify five main areas for co-operative initiatives.

Co-ordinated policy frameworks: tax co-operation in the form of global minimum corporate taxes to ensure fair revenue for social investment. Harmonise labour and social protections through common standards to prevent exploitation. Align sustainable development by embedding the Sustainable Development Goals, the Paris Agreement targets and human rights principles into trade and financial agreements.

Inclusive trade and investment: fair trade agreements to ensure that market access benefits small producers, women and marginalised communities. Establish regional value chains that support developing countries in upgrading within global value chains – so that they don’t just supply raw materials. Design co-operative frameworks for technology transfer, especially for sharing green and digital technologies at affordable costs.

Financial co-operation: innovative financing mechanisms, such as green and social bonds, blended finance and climate funds need to be made accessible to low-income countries. Implement co-operative mechanisms for debt relief and restructuring. This will help address unsustainable debt that crowds out social spending. Forge public-private partnerships for inclusion to co-finance social infrastructure. This includes education, health and digital access.

Knowledge and capacity building: joint research platforms are required to enable more collaborative work on climate adaptation, food security and inclusive digitalisation. South-south and triangular co-operation should be increased to share experiences and best practices among developing nations with support from multilateral institutions. Managed labour mobility schemes through skills partnerships will benefit both sending and receiving countries.

Governance and multilateral reform: reforming global institutions like the World Bank, International Monetary Fund and World Trade Organization is essential to give developing economies stronger voices in these institutions.

What should African countries be doing?

China, India and other leading eastern countries have proven themselves formidable rivals to the west – economically, militarily and in global governance. Africa occupies a central position. It has the opportunity to become a key player in shaping the future of the global economy.

A number of recommendations should serve as priority areas – particularly over the next decade.

The first would include building a digital backbone, and enhancing technology and AI capabilities. These have become core drivers of competitiveness. Without infrastructure and skills, countries are relegated to raw-material suppliers.

Countries need:

• a national broadband and data-centre strategy (public-private), and incentives to attract the building of regional data centres

• more training in science, technology, engineering, maths and artificial intelligence. Examples include fast-track bootcamps, ICT in secondary schools and support for local AI startups.

Secondly, governments should continue to secure investment in digital infrastructure, such as fibre optics, 5G networks and data centres. They could potentially use China’s Digital Silk Road, which promotes affordable tech alternatives.

Secondly, South Africa and other African countries need to prioritise economic inclusion and sustainable development to fast-track broad-based inclusive economic development. This should be the core driver of their development strategy.

Thirdly, African governments must strategically navigate geopolitical shifts and alliances. They are key spheres of influence in the digital competition between the US and China, and ought to use this position to their benefit. To do this, Africna governments should:

• use Brics+ membership in a co-ordinated way to advance national interests

• foster south-south co-operation by strengthening trade, technological transfer and financial alliances with other developing countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America. More emphasis should be placed on initiatives like the Forum on China-Africa Co-operation.

• enhance trade diplomacy and diversify markets to be able to sell more goods and services in Asian, European and intra-African markets

• maximise external investment by securing investments, infrastructure and digital partnerships from both the US and China. This will position African countries to benefit from the global technology competition.

– Trade is shaping new global power relations: what this means for Africa
– https://theconversation.com/trade-is-shaping-new-global-power-relations-what-this-means-for-africa-266940

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Olivier Walther, Associate Professor in Geography, University of Florida

A decade ago countries in West Africa set up a unique trade monitoring mechanism. Its purpose was to track intra-regional trade in agricultural products and livestock in the region. But the system was closed down in 2022 due to a lack of funding by regional organisations.

The mechanism provided West African countries with data from more than 320 markets and along 10 corridors, enabling the tracking of not only trade patterns but livestock and zoonotic diseases.

The lack of up-to-date trade data has a number of knock-on effects. Detailed intra-trade data are essential to help assess the impact of external shocks that can significantly affect food security and economic development. These include political crises, extreme weather events, currency devaluation, or epidemics.

Good data is also essential for mapping trade networks. In turn, this can strengthen market information systems and disease surveillance efforts. These rely heavily on the movement of goods, people, livestock and capital across the region.

Using data collected by the Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel from 2013 to 2017, researchers show the importance of considering the social structure of trade networks, their geography and temporal changes.

The social structure of trade networks could better inform market information systems and disease surveillance, both of which rely heavily on the movement of goods, people, livestock and capital across the region

They conclude that regional bodies should support the resumption of trade data collection. They should also foster dialogue with national statistical offices and other national institutions that have experience in collecting data on informal regional food trade to work towards a coherent regional statistical approach.

A unique database on the regional economy

In West Africa, agricultural goods and livestock trade operates in well-established corridors. Animals, for example, flow from the Sahel to the major urban centres of the Atlantic Coast and of the Gulf of Guinea.

Our analysis of the trade data suggests that border markets play a key role in livestock trade and that a large proportion of movements are trans-boundary.

This high level of mobility facilitates the spread of livestock and zoonotic diseases. These include Rift Valley fever, Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever, Foot and Mouth disease, and Peste des petits ruminants. At the end of September 2025, for example, a new outbreak of Rift Valley fever was observed in Mauritania and Senegal. The two West African countries have very close ties when it comes to animal movements.

The transnational nature of trade in West Africa led to the creation of a regional database by the Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel in 2013. Data collected on more than 320 markets and along 10 corridors, from Guinea and Senegal in the west to Nigeria in the east, were unique on the African continent.

The data was particularly well suited for analysis of locally-produced food stuff and livestock at the regional level. This is because it incorporated both formal and informal trade. Both are prevalent throughout the region. Our recent work estimates informal activities could reach up to 85% of total trade, representing US$10 billion. This is six times higher than portrayed in official statistics

Filling the statistical gap

The experience of recent years and the transnational nature of trade flows suggest one key step. That being regional institutions, rather than bilateral donors, take over data collection.

Initially, the data were collected within the framework of the Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel’s Regional Support Program of Market Access. This was developed to increase the volume and value of trade within the Economic Community of West African States and the West African Economic and Monetary Union .

From 2017 to 2019, the United States Agency for International Development provided funding to establish the database as part of its West Africa/Regional Agriculture Office. The data was eventually integrated to the ECOWAS Informal Cross Border Trade database. This was developed to monitor informal cross-border trade in the region in 2019.

The United States Agency for International Development programme ended in 2019. After this, data collection was transferred to the Family Farming, Regional Markets and Cross-Border Trade Corridors in the Sahel project. Launched in 2020, its aim was to develop a sustainable and self-financed means of collecting reliable data on agricultural and food trade in West Africa.

Funding for these activities was provided by the International Fund for Agricultural Development. It was locally managed by the West African Association for Cross-Border Trade in Agro-forestry-pastoral and Fisheries Products, based in Togo.

This initiative, covering 17 countries unfortunately came to an end in 2022 (agricultural products) and 2024 (livestock).

The cessation of this funding has had dire effects. It profoundly affected researchers’ ability to measure the impact of structural and political changes affecting the region. For example, it is still impossible to measure the extent to which the closure of certain borders following successive coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger in recent years has affected the trade networks linking the Sahel to the Gulf of Guinea.

Better data to monitor trade and animal diseases

Re-establishing a permanent data collection system by supporting local associations such as the West African Association for Cross-Border Trade in Agro-forestry-pastoral and Fisheries Products is one of the essential steps for policymakers wishing to strengthen the region’s resilience.

The World Animal Health Organisation’s International Animal Health Code has suggested centralising livestock mobility data. This could be a starting point. It is the most efficient way to prevent and respond to transnational disease spread through trade.

Accurate, timely and centralised data collection could help identify possible hotspots and reconstruct transmission patterns. It could also develop control measures and alert systems to protect unaffected areas.

Beyond disease control, resuming the collection of data on intra-regional trade would also contribute to design policies that support the adaptation of regional economy to new climate conditions and political unrest. Better trade data on West Africa’s informal sector could unlock climate adaptation finance by highlighting its real value.

For instance, in one of our latest reports, we estimate that regional livestock exports for Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso are likely to be close to USD 1 billion when counting unrecorded trade, against USD 80 million in official statistics.

The research for this article was carried out in conjunction with Mr. Brahima Cissé who coordinates the Regional Markets program at the Economic Community of West African States in Togo; Dr. Alban Masaparisi, an economist specialising in food systems transformation and agricultural policy at the OECD Sahel and West Africa Club, France and Mr. Koffi Zougbede, an economist working on food systems at the OECD Sahel and West Africa Club, France.__

– West Africa’s trade monitoring system has collapsed – why this is dangerous for food security
– https://theconversation.com/west-africas-trade-monitoring-system-has-collapsed-why-this-is-dangerous-for-food-security-266405