MIL Africa Engine

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Federico Donelli, Associate Professor of International Relations, University of Trieste

The competition for global influence and control is shifting. One of the places where this dynamic is playing out is the Red Sea region, which encompasses Egypt, Eritrea, Djibouti, Sudan, Saudi Arabia and Yemen. Here, international rivalries, regional ambitions and local politics collide. Federico Donelli, who has studied these political dynamics and recently published Power Competition in the Red Sea, explains what’s driving the region’s geopolitical significance.

What defines the Red Sea as a region?

The region stretches from the Suez Canal to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, covering approximately 438,000km². The Red Sea borders some of the world’s most volatile regions: the Horn of Africa, the Arabian Peninsula and the western shore of the Indo-Pacific area.

The Red Sea region

The Red Sea is rapidly becoming a highly contested zone, where traditional and emerging global powers are vying for influence and control. The decline of western geopolitical centrality, the rise of alternative powers and the increasing assertiveness of regional actors converge in the Red Sea.

This has created a complex and dynamic arena in which to test future global power hierarchies. The Red Sea region is challenging the liberal international order that emerged at the end of the cold war in 1989. That order is based on:

• multilateralism – cooperation among multiple states

• a free market – limited state intervention in the economy

• liberal democracy – political pluralism and individual rights.

These tenets have been eroded by a combination of internal weaknesses and external challenges over the past 20 years.

While competition for global power between the United States and China tends to dominate the headlines, the true laboratories of the post-liberal world order are found in regions where international, regional and local dynamics collide.

The broader Red Sea region is one of them. Others are the Arctic, the South Indo-Pacific and the Balkans.

Why is the Red Sea region a stage for global power competition?

The region lacks a clear dominant power that is capable of imposing order. This makes it an open arena of competition among states with overlapping interests.

The Red Sea has great strategic value. It connects the Mediterranean and the Indo-Pacific, and is a maritime route for global trade and energy. It also borders several fragile states like Sudan, Eritrea and Yemen.

This combination – on the one hand, limited or contested authority that leaves the area exposed to external penetration, and on the other, its significant strategic value – has turned the region into a magnet for external involvement.

The United States and China both have military facilities in Djibouti. Russia has sought access to Port Sudan. Gulf powers, notably Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, have expanded their presence across the Horn of Africa. They’ve done this by investing in ports, infrastructure and military cooperation especially in Sudan, Somalia and Ethiopia.

Turkey, Iran and Israel have also established political, economic and security ties. This links the Red Sea to the eastern Mediterranean and the Persian Gulf.

However, external powers are not the only drivers of change in the region.

Local actors, from Ethiopia to Sudan, Eritrea, Egypt and Somalia, are exploiting global rivalries to advance their strategic objectives. They are courting competing external powers by trading military access for security guarantees, or seeking investment in strategic infrastructure. They are also using diplomatic alignment with the US, China, Gulf states or Turkey to strengthen domestic and regional positions.

These actions create a complex web of overlapping interests. These blur the line between regional and global politics. Governments and non-state actors now have multiple external patrons to choose from. They can play one power against another.

This “multi-alignment” gives regional players leverage. It also increases volatility and uncertainty. For example, rival factions in the ongoing Sudanese civil war have sought support from external players, ranging from Saudi Arabia to the UAE. This has transformed an internal conflict into a proxy battlefield.

In Somalia, local and clan authorities negotiate security and economic deals directly with foreign powers like Turkey and Gulf states, often bypassing weak local institutions.

Meanwhile, landlocked Ethiopia’s search for sea access has drawn it into new diplomatic and security entanglements with Somaliland, Somalia, Eritrea, Egypt and Gulf countries.

These examples reveal how the Red Sea arena has become a microcosm of the post-liberal order: fragmented, transactional and deeply interconnected.

What are the main outcomes and lessons from this alignment?

The Red Sea region reflects the broader transformation of global politics.

Rather than producing a new balance, the decline of western influence has created a decentralised and competitive system.

In this environment, regional areas serve as testing grounds for new patterns of interaction between global and local powers, state and non-state actors, and formal alliances and informal partnerships.

While western-centric “universal” rules and institutions defined the liberal international order, the post-liberal order is characterised by selective engagement, bilateral bargains and flexible alignments.

The result is a world where order emerges from competition rather than consensus.

Competition among great powers now occurs less through international institutions and more through regional arenas. Military presence, infrastructure investment and political alliances now serve as instruments of influence.

What conclusions do you draw?

The Red Sea region is a reminder to scholars and policymakers that the future of international politics will not be defined solely in Washington, Beijing, Brussels or Moscow. It will also be defined in places like Port Sudan, Aden and Djibouti, where the new global order is being shaped.

Regions have become true laboratories of international change. They are places where global competition interacts with local conflicts, and new models of governance and influence emerge.

Local actors, state and non-state, are no longer passive recipients of external interference. They are active participants in shaping their own security environments.

– Global power shifts are playing out in the Red Sea region: why this is where the rules are changing
– https://theconversation.com/global-power-shifts-are-playing-out-in-the-red-sea-region-why-this-is-where-the-rules-are-changing-268895

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Marelize Isabel Schoeman, Professor, University of South Africa

In a recent statement, South Africa’s minister of correctional services said more than 18,000 parolees had reoffended in the past three years. They included 209 committing murder and 330 rape during 2024-25. This is one of the country’s most pressing justice problems, yet it remains poorly understood. It’s called recidivism: a situation where an individual who has already served a sentence commits another crime and is arrested, convicted or sentenced again.

Academic and media reports suggest that many released prisoners commit another crime and are sentenced. However, South Africa lacks a standard definition for recidivism or a consistent way to measure it. This means that no one knows the true rate. Researcher Marelize Schoeman explains why tracking recidivism matters.

Why is the definition of recidivism so important?

Recidivism is not simply reoffending. The word comes from Latin. It means “to fall back”. It describes when an individual who has already served a sentence commits another crime and is arrested, convicted or sentenced again.

A high recidivism rate, therefore, reflects not only reoffending, but the criminal justice system’s failure to rehabilitate offenders and prevent further crime.

According to academic research, South Africa’s recidivism rate ranges from 55% to 95%. Media reports claim it to be as high as 80% to 97%.

These figures, however, can only be regarded as estimates. South Africa lacks a standard definition of recidivism. This has led to researchers and criminal justice institutions – including the Department of Correctional Services, the South African Police Service and the National Prosecuting Authority – using different definitions and measurement methods. This produces inconsistent data and inaccurate recidivism statistics.

The lack of a shared definition and common understanding has resulted in recidivism being used as a buzzword. This is done to create public sensation, score political points or claim programme success without any credible or generalisable evidence.

As a result, policymakers and service providers in the criminal justice sector don’t know whether:

• policing, sentencing and rehabilitation programmes are effective

• correctional centres are overcrowded due to repeat offenders

• parole and reintegration efforts are successful.

This absence of reliable information hampers the criminal justice system’s ability to deliver effective prevention services, support parolees after release, reduce reoffending and build safer communities.

How can South Africa better define and address the problem?

The first step is to have a uniform definition of recidivism across the criminal justice sector. Then the rate can be measured accurately. Without accurate data, resources can be wasted on crime prevention and rehabilitation programmes that do not work. Effective initiatives will remain unnoticed or underfunded. You can’t manage what you can’t measure.

The second step is to improve record-keeping and create a central digitised databank for sentenced offenders. This databank would hold key information, such as personal details, previous convictions, the nature of each offence, and other risk-related factors that could influence an offender’s rehabilitation prospects.

This information should be accessible to the prisons, police and prosecutors. The courts, parole boards and accredited rehabilitation service providers should also have access.

Currently, there is no central record system. The police service maintains all criminal record information. To obtain a person’s criminal record, a form and the individual’s fingerprints must be submitted. An official then checks the database for any previous convictions, offence details and sentencing information. This largely paper-based system is prone to delays, human error and inaccuracies.

Many offenders use aliases or do not have identity documents.

A uniform identification system, using digitally captured fingerprints or iris scans, would be a more effective way of identifying and keeping records of individuals with a criminal record.

Digitising this process has been planned since 1996, but hasn’t happened. Fragmented systems, weak accountability, outdated infrastructure, governance bottlenecks and late deliveries have delayed it.

What difference will the database make?

Making these improvements would change how South Africa measures, understands and manages recidivism. A uniform definition would replace guesswork and political rhetoric with a clear, evidence-based standard.

Policymakers, researchers and practitioners could use a common language to make comparisons and coordinate strategies.

The focus could shift from viewing recidivism merely as individuals reoffending, to the criminal justice system’s effectiveness in breaking the cycle of crime.

A centralised, digitised offender database would reduce human error and improve data reliability, making it possible to identify and do what works.

Public trust in the criminal justice sector might improve, enhancing rehabilitation outcomes and building safer communities.

What countries have cracked this?

Countries like the United Kingdom, Norway, Finland and Sweden, Canada, New Zealand and Singapore have adopted a uniform definition of recidivism. They use it to measure the performance of their criminal justice systems.

The effectiveness of these steps is clear in Norway and Singapore. The two countries have some of the lowest recidivism rates in the world at 20% and 21%, respectively. The UK’s recidivism rates have declined from 31.6% in 2010 to 26.5% in 2023. In New Zealand, performance data is used to target high-risk groups and strengthen rehabilitation efforts.

These countries use biometric databases in law enforcement and correctional facilities. The databases help to identify offenders, track parolees and manage prisons. Authorities can identify ex-offenders who commit new crimes.

Recidivism statistics are also used as key performance indicators across the criminal justice system. They guide funding and programme development.

In South Africa, a review of the parole board system which began in September 2025 offers the Department of Correctional Services an opportunity to define what recidivism means.

This step could create the basis for developing a central record system for both incarcerated offenders and those under community corrections. The system could later be expanded across the entire criminal justice network.

– Thousands of criminals reoffend in South Africa – better data would show where the justice system is failing
– https://theconversation.com/thousands-of-criminals-reoffend-in-south-africa-better-data-would-show-where-the-justice-system-is-failing-268413

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Stephen Leonard Mensah, PhD Candidate, University of Memphis

Wetlands are vital ecological resources that provide several benefits in urban and peri-urban areas. They slow down flood waters, and act as a source of fishing and farming livelihoods. They also provide socio-cultural benefits for local communities. But some of these valuable ecosystems, due to their presence in prime locations, are at the centre of competing cultural, ecological and economic interests. Property development, especially, is a threat to wetlands.

The 2025 Global Wetland Outlook emphasises that the protection of wetlands is key to sustainable development. However, since 1970, about 411 million hectares of wetlands have been lost. In Africa, degradation is widespread and many are in poor condition.

We are a multidisciplinary team of researchers working in the area of resilience, sustainability and justice in urban transitions.

Our research highlights some of the local-level issues and conflicting interests that are shaping the rapid destruction of the Sakumono Ramsar Site in Tema, Ghana. Under the Ramsar Convention, a Ramsar site is a designated wetland with special natural significance.

We found institutional complicity and the lack of engagement with communities to be key drivers shaping current wetland conditions. Our study proposes a model for enforcing regulations and asserting the community’s right to nature for socio-cultural purposes.

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Read more: A root cause of flooding in Accra: developers clogging up the city’s wetlands

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Tema: wetlands in an industrial city

Tema was developed from a small fishing community into an industrialised port city by independent Ghana’s first president, Kwame Nkrumah. Its purpose was to facilitate international trade and vibrant economic development. It is one of Ghana’s most important cities and has been experiencing urban expansion and land use changes. This has led to encroachment in environmentally sensitive areas, including the Ramsar site.

The Sakumono wetland was officially designated a Ramsar site in 1992 to protect its rich biodiversity. It covers about 1,400 hectares and is protected by several regulations, including the Wetland Management Regulations Act, 1999.

But the site has, over the years, witnessed rapid depletion and intense encroachment from property development. Approximately 80% of the Sakumono Ramsar Site has been encroached on, leaving only about 20% of the wetland intact.

Population in the wetland’s catchment area had grown from about 114,600 in 1984 to over 500,000 by 2000, indicating that large numbers of people live around and rely on the wetland. Although the exact number of people currently affected by the wetlands encroachment is unknown, the dense surrounding population suggests that many households, especially those engaged in farming and fishing, have likely experienced reduced access and livelihood displacement. Like other wetlands in Ghana, the Sakumomo Ramsar site risks eventual destruction if nothing is done to reverse current trends.

The president of Ghana has called for heavy punishment for individuals who encroach on Ramsar sites. Both community and institutional respondents in our research claimed, however, that it was the political elites who were behind unbridled property development in the first place.

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Read more: Flooding incidents in Ghana’s capital are on the rise. Researchers chase the cause

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Multiple and conflicting interests in wetlands management

The main objective of our study was to analyse stakeholders’ perspectives on the use, value and management of wetlands. We evaluated the impact of these views on the sustainable management of ecologically sensitive areas. We conducted in-depth interviews with community residents, community leaders and opinion leaders. We also interviewed officials from metropolitan and municipal assemblies. The research was conducted in the Sakumono community, where the Sakumono Ramsar site is located.

Conflicting views on wetlands value: while the value of the site lies in its economic and ecological benefits, community residents were more interested in its economic value. That is, how it provides livelihood opportunities through farming and fishing activities.

Residents wondered why developers were allowed to exploit portions of the wetlands for building purposes, while they were prevented from fishing and farming. One of the residents said:

See rich and influential people buying land in the wetland area and using it for building properties. But we are not permitted to fish there.

For state institutions, protecting the wetland meant restricting access for community members. They encouraged activities such as tree planting and periodic desilting.

Conflicting views on wetlands use: the views of stakeholders also showed the changing understanding of the use of wetlands. An official from the forestry commission revealed that the wetland was acquired by the state during the 1980s for conservation. But other institutional officials, such as those of the lands commission, revealed that it had become a prime area for property development. Powerful developers bypass the land registration process and build without a permit.

The size of the Ramsar site has reduced because people are acquiring the wetland, including the buffer area, for residential development. Even though the wetland area is demarcated as a protected area, many of the politically connected developers go behind us and build without a permit.

Conflicting views on wetlands management: our research revealed contradictions between state institutions and community stakeholders. For instance, traditional authorities were of the view that:

Since the management of the wetland is not under our control, we are not responsible for the current developments taking place in and around the demarcated area.

The traditional authorities said they were not consulted and did not benefit from the wetland. This perhaps explains why they watched on as destruction continued. A member of the traditional council said:

As leaders of the community, we are not consulted about how the wetland is managed. You always hear the forestry commission accusing community leaders that we are selling the land. We can’t sell land that does not belong to us.

Towards a community-based stewardship model

Communities should be at the centre of wetlands management. We propose a stewardship-based co-management model that enforces environmental and conservation regulations. It emphasises working with a range of stakeholders. This includes government agencies, traditional authorities and environmentally conscious community members. We call for an updated wetlands management plan that reflects recent changes, but that is also fair, responsible and protective for present and future generations. This is essential for building sustainable communities in Ghana and beyond.

– An important wetland in Ghana is under siege. Researchers investigate the real issues
– https://theconversation.com/an-important-wetland-in-ghana-is-under-siege-researchers-investigate-the-real-issues-269016