Category: MIL-OSI

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Haruna Inuwa, DPhil Candidate, Energy Systems, University of Oxford

Energy systems are coming under attack globally because disrupting power or fuel supplies offers strategic, economic or political leverage. This can be in local conflicts or large-scale geopolitical confrontations.

Nigeria illustrates this clearly: militants in the Niger Delta sabotage pipelines to assert control and tap into oil revenues, while the extremist group Boko Haram and armed bandits in the north hit power lines to weaken state presence.

These incidents reveal how conflict actors weaponise energy systems.

We recently published a study assessing how militancy, insurgency and armed banditry undermine Nigeria’s energy systems by disrupting oil, gas and power infrastructure. We compiled novel datasets of energy related incidents, mapping their timing, location and cost from 2009 to 2025.

Our findings show that more than 2,300 separate attacks were recorded. We see a widening pattern of energy insecurity that drains national revenue, drives away investment, and worsens environmental injustice.

This explains why Nigeria’s energy insecurity has become one of its most serious development and security challenges.

We recommend investment in decentralised systems, community engagement in oil regions, and policies supporting industrial decarbonisation to strengthen resilience and advance climate goals.

The price

According to our estimates, between 2009 and 2024, approximately US$20 billion was lost as a result of attacks. During the 2013-2016 surge in militancy, losses peaked at roughly US$17 billion.

We found that the South-South (Niger Delta) region remains the epicentre of oil sabotage, with peak revenue losses of US$8.62 trillion (2009-2012) and sustained environmental damage.

Attacks and oil theft along the Trans-Niger Pipeline were particularly devastating. This pipeline moves 450,000 barrels of crude oil daily from oil-producing fields in Niger Delta region to export terminals. Each disruption not only shuts down production but also deprives the government of huge revenues.

Since 2021, tactics have shifted. Over 40 attacks have targeted transmission lines in the North-East and North-Central, largely linked to Boko Haram and armed bandits.

Case studies of the 2016 Shell Forcados terminal bombing and the 2024 Shiroro transmission line attack show reliance on backup generators increased electricity costs by 3.2-6.0 times.

Beyond the financial toll, communities suffer respiratory illnesses, unsafe drinking water and food insecurity.

Disruptions have made Nigeria’s grid more unstable and pose risks to critical infrastructure projects nearing completion, including gas pipelines.

Attacks threaten regional energy trade and integration projects, such as the West African Power Pool, West African Gas Pipeline, Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline, and the proposed Nigeria-Algeria-Gas-Pipeline, which rely on secure cross-border energy infrastructure.

Foreign investors view these risks as prohibitive. Due to attacks on energy infrastructure, in 2020, Nigeria lost around US$40 billion in foreign direct investment.

Oil theft and sabotage have also left a toxic legacy in the Niger Delta. Each pipeline rupture spills crude into rivers and farmland, wiping out livelihoods.

We find that clean-up costs from oil spills on the Trans-Niger Pipeline alone ranged from US$150 million to US$290 million per period (2009-2012, 2013-2016, 2017-2020, 2021-2024), highlighting continuous environmental degradation in the Niger Delta area.

In line with this, the United Nations Environment Programme estimated that a US$1 billion 30-year clean-up is needed in Ogoniland, while Reuters reported that addressing oil pollution in Bayelsa State alone might require US$12 billion over 12 years. When compared to Nigeria’s GDP of US$375 billion in 2024, these figures underscore the substantial financial strain that this attack-induced environmental crisis places on national resources.

Our analysis indicates that insurgents and bandits have shifted tactics since 2021. We see increased disruption and attacks on power infrastructure in the northern part of the country.

More than 40 incidents targeting high-voltage transmission lines have been recorded in just four years, a 20-fold increase from the previous decade. Two major examples show the consequences: the 2016 Forcados terminal bombing cut national power generation by 3,132MW, while the 2024 Shiroro transmission-line attack left the north-western part of the country in darkness for two weeks.

During attack-induced outages, businesses and households switch to diesel or petrol generators. We find that this backup electricity costs three to six times more than grid power, with the North-East and North-West experiencing the highest cost increase.

Each attack also carries an invisible environmental cost. Backup generators release far more carbon dioxide than grid electricity. During the 2016 and 2024 outages, we estimated sharp spikes in CO₂ across the South-West and South-South, Nigeria’s most energy-hungry regions.

This trend undermines Nigeria’s commitments under the National Climate Change Policy 2021-2030, which aims to cut emissions and expand energy access using renewable energy. Insecurity, therefore, is not just an economic or social problem – it is an obstacle to climate progress.

How Nigeria can respond

Our research points to several steps that could make the energy systems more resilient:

1. Invest in decentralised and modular power systems: Smaller, locally managed plants – such as the 52-megawatt Maiduguri Emergency Power Plant – are harder to sabotage and quicker to repair.

2. Rebuild trust with host communities: Environmental remediation and transparent benefit-sharing can reduce grievances that drive sabotage. Local participation in energy projects must move beyond tokenism.

3. Adopt technology for early warning and monitoring: Pressure sensors, drones and predictive analytics can detect tampering and leaks in real-time. Government contracts with former militants to guard pipelines must be coupled with strict accountability.

4. Accelerate innovative clean-energy deployment: In the light of Nigeria’s commitment to achieve climate goals, it is important to explore emerging decarbonisation pathways, including clean hydrogen.

Nigeria’s energy wealth has long promised prosperity, but persistent insecurity has made it a liability. The financial losses, pollution and emissions caused by repeated attacks erode resilience and deter investment. This challenge is not unique to Nigeria; it reflects a broader global reality in which energy transitions depend on secure infrastructure.

Achieving a stable, decentralised and low-carbon system will require protecting the assets that make it possible.

– Attacks on Nigeria’s energy systems weaken the country – research unpacks costs, risks and ways forward
– https://theconversation.com/attacks-on-nigerias-energy-systems-weaken-the-country-research-unpacks-costs-risks-and-ways-forward-271366

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Giorgio Miescher, Associate Researcher University of Basel and University of Namibia, University of Basel

Donkeys are an unassuming yet ubiquitous presence in northern Namibia. They traverse sandy village roads, pull carts stacked with firewood, and graze freely along the northern edge of the Etosha National Park.

The story of how they came to occupy such a central role in rural life – and in such large numbers – is a fascinating one that’s linked to the country’s colonial history, the management of wildlife versus domestic animals, and the role of migrant workers.

We are historians who specialise in Namibia and Southern Africa. Our research focuses on colonial legacies in nature conservation and land. In a research paper we retraced the routes of the domesticated donkey through a conservation landscape.

We found that donkeys occupy a contradictory status in communities in northern Namibia. They are indispensable, yet undervalued. For example, they remain central to tasks such as ploughing, hauling water and transporting logs. Yet their social status remains curiously low. They are rarely used in ceremonies, have little monetary value, and are strongly associated with those who cannot afford tractors or cars.

We conclude that this ambiguity has arisen from the long histories of colonial rule, labour migration, conservation and veterinary control that shaped northern Namibia.

The great trek north

We traced donkeys’ ability to move across one of the country’s most significant borders: the veterinary cordon fence known as the Red Line. The Red Line is an inner-Namibian border, over 1,000 kilometres long, running from west to east and separating the country into two distinct parts. It originated under German colonial rule (1884-1915) and was fully implemented under South African rule (1915-1990).

It still exists today.

The Red Line separated the more densely populated northern parts of the country from the settler-colonial heartland, the so-called Police Zone in central and southern Namibia. The Etosha Game Reserve served as a buffer zone between the Police Zone and the Owambo region in the central north, conceptualised as a migrant labour reservoir.

Donkeys entered Namibia’s central north relatively late, and only became common in the 1920s and 1930s. Their presence across the region was driven largely by migrant labourers working on contract. As thousands of men travelled between the Police Zone and Owambo, many returned home with equines – especially donkeys – purchased in the south.

Cheap, hardy, and resistant to many diseases, donkeys became essential companions on the workers’ long journeys. Donkeys carried heavy loads of clothes, tools and other goods, including gramophones and radios, earned through contract labour.

Since they were associated with commodities, donkeys also became a symbol of modernity expanding from the thriving settler economy in the south.

Today, people still recount how returning labour migrants used donkeys to haul luggage through predator-rich landscapes within Etosha, or how villagers took their carts to meet these men halfway. Donkeys also served as ambulances during emergencies in the Namibian Liberation War (1966-1989).

Their presence has also been entangled with colonial border regimes and conservation policies.

The tensions

During the rinderpest epidemic of 1896-97, in a failed attempt to stop the disease from entering the colony, German colonial authorities established a cordon of military outposts along the southern edge of the Etosha Pan. Although intended to control the movement of cattle, this cordon would later become the Red Line.

The devastation of rinderpest prompted German forces to import donkeys and mules as disease-resistant alternatives to oxen. These animals gradually filtered into civilian hands in the Police Zone, the heartland of settler colonialism in central and southern Namibia, and became increasingly common by the 1910s.

The establishment of Game Reserve 2, comprising today’s Etosha National Park and the areas north-west of the Etosha Pan, was part of a policy to seal off Owambo from the Police Zone. Hunting and human movement in the reserve became highly regulated.

In 1915 South Africa defeated the German forces and took over Namibia. The new colonial power maintained the inner border and formalised it as the Red Line in the 1920s and 1930s. They banned cattle movement across the Red Line but allowed equines, provided they carried veterinary certificates.

Donkeys thus became one of the few domestic animals permitted to cross the border legally.

As migrant labour expanded, so too did the flow of donkeys northward. By the late 1920s and 1930s, hundreds of donkeys passed through Etosha each year. In Owambo, they were quickly adopted for local agriculture and transport. Even as motorised lorries and buses began to dominate long-distance travel from the 1930s onward, many migrant workers still preferred to buy donkeys as durable companions.

By the 1940s, however, administrators in Owambo began to worry about the donkeys’ impact on grazing. Restrictions were introduced, but donkeys continued to slip into the north through unofficial routes.

From the 1950s onward, the situation changed dramatically as the Etosha National Park was transformed into a fenced conservation area. Residents and livestock were expelled, and by 1961 the southern boundary was fully fenced. Donkey traffic through Etosha came to an end.

Meanwhile, the northern boundary of Etosha became a flashpoint. The government of the pseudo-independent new Ovamboland homeland resisted efforts to fence this border and insisted on continued movement of wildlife out of Etosha – especially zebra, an important local food source. Conservation officials accused communities of using donkeys to disguise poaching tracks and allowing their animals to stray into the park.

New rules

With Namibia’s independence in 1990, new animal-movement regulations emerged, but donkeys retained their special status. Unlike cattle, they were still permitted to cross the Red Line.

Their symbolic and practical importance has changed. Migrant workers no longer return with donkeys from the south, and motorised transport dominates even in rural areas.

But donkeys remain deeply woven into the fabric of northern Namibian life. They continue to support poorer households, endure harsh environments, and live in proximity to wildlife. Their presence evokes conflicting memories – of difficult journeys and colonial border regimes, but also of development and modernity.

– Donkeys are a common sight in northern Namibia – what colonial history has to do with it
– https://theconversation.com/donkeys-are-a-common-sight-in-northern-namibia-what-colonial-history-has-to-do-with-it-273058

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Chuka Onwumechili, Professor of Communications, Howard University

The 35th edition of the Africa Cup of Nations, hosted by Morocco, produced thrills and several story lines, some good and others not so good. It ended in a victory for Senegal – their second Afcon championship. While the 1-0 victory over Morocco was deserved, the championship game ended on a sour note as fans invaded the field and the winning country abandoned the game for 16 minutes.

I’m a sports communications scholar and an author of multiple books on football as it relates to Africa.

The top four positives of the tournament were:

• quality matches played on impeccable surfaces

• expanded media coverage

• increased global interest

• higher attendance figures.

On the downside, however, we had the Senegalese team walkout during the final, bad refereeing decisions, especially in games involving Morocco, and ticketing challenges.

This 2026 Afcon provided examples of quality pitches and marketing that future hosts should learn from. However, providing better security around the field and better trained match officials are lessons that CAF (the Confederation of African Football) must learn from this tournament.

What went well

The infrastructure at Afcon showed Morocco’s readiness to host the World Cup later in the year. On six stadiums alone, the country spent US$1.4 billion. As much as US$10 billion was spent on allied public infrastructure for transport. The matches were of high quality on excellent surfaces.

The fans who watched the spectacular football on the field were transported by a high-speed rail system and seamless other transportation means.

The quality of the surfaces may have contributed to the fact that there were fewer surprises or upsets. All four teams that reached the semi-final stage – Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria and Senegal – were top ranked in their groups.

Eventually, the championship game was contested by the two top ranked African teams. The game was outstanding as the well-known names produced memorable football throughout the tournament.

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Read more: African football won the 34th Afcon, with Côte d’Ivoire a close second

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Expanded media coverage

The decision to expand to additional markets led to expanded media coverage in China, Brazil and key European markets. With several well-known players from European clubs participating, a global audience was assured. Teams like Real Madrid, PSG, Bayern Munich, Manchester United and Liverpool had players participating.

Beyond those were recent world renowned players such as Sadio Mane, Riyad Mahrez and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. Those names were certain to attract media audiences across the world.

Viewership rose overall, with remarkable increases in Europe. France recorded 3.4 million viewers and the UK had 1.7 million viewers.

Increased global interest

CAF announced a 90% increase in revenue. This year’s revenue was US$192.6 million (US$114 million profit) compared to US$105.6 million and US$72 million profit in the previous Afcon. This shows the steady rise from just nine partners in the 2021 tournament to 17 in the 2023 tournament and 23 in this one. Greater media reach resulted in commercial interest.

Attendance figures have also risen remarkably. Figures announced at the end of the competition showed 1.34 million attended the games. The number of attendees in 2023 in Côte d’Ivoire was 1.1 million.

This clearly shows increased interest in the tournament. Morocco’s proximity to Europe was also a critical factor. More attendees travelled from the continent and elsewhere.

The prizes awarded to teams at the tournament also set records, with Senegal taking home US$11.6 million. Teams eliminated at the group stage received US$1.3 million each.

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Read more: Nigeria wins its 10th Wafcon title – but women’s football has never been more competitive

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Errors

Angry scenes: The championship game was marred by a Senegalese walkout following protest over a penalty kick awarded to Morocco during the extra time. The game was delayed for 16 minutes. Senegal was angered by the cancellation of its goal late in regulation time. Its protest over the penalty awarded to Morocco lasted until one of its famous faces, Sadio Mane, asked his teammates to continue the game.

By then angry Senegalese fans had torn seats in the stands and multiple fights broke out. In the end, Morocco could not convert the penalty award and Senegal scored a memorable goal to emerge winner.

Umpiring questions: Throughout the tournament, Morocco appeared to be favoured by several refereeing decisions and non-decisions. CAF should consider match official exchange programmes with other confederations as a way of improving officiating. This would not only help Afcon but expose officials to other continental events.

Also of concern, Moroccan ball boys were seen seizing the goalkeepers’ towels for opposing teams in both Nigeria v Morocco and Senegal v Morocco.

Ticketing challenges: There were ticketing challenges also. While tickets were sold out, several stadiums during the group games were deserted. This may be attributed to hiccups where secondary sellers may have bought more tickets than they could re-sell. Nonetheless, an average 21,167 attended each game. Media attendance also rose during the tournament. Reports indicated over 3,800 journalists covered the event from Morocco.

Looking ahead

The competition demonstrated Morocco’s readiness to host World Cup games in 2030. Morocco, along with Spain and Portugal, will host the games, featuring 48 teams. All six cities used for the 2025 Afcon will host the world in 2030. Portugal will have only two host cities and Spain will provide nine venues.

It will be difficult for the host nations for the 2027 Afcon to match Morocco’s accomplishment.

The three hosts for 2027 – Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda – should at least measure up to what Côte d’Ivoire accomplished hosting the 2023 event.

They can look to improve the ticketing system, at the least. Further improving security around stadiums and educating the ball boys would help in protecting visiting teams.

But the on-field disturbances should not take away from this tournament’s numerous accomplishments off the field and the available facilities.

– Afcon drama: what went wrong and what went right at the continent’s biggest football cup in Morocco
– https://theconversation.com/afcon-drama-what-went-wrong-and-what-went-right-at-the-continents-biggest-football-cup-in-morocco-273819