Kenya Defence Forces (KDF) Troops in Family Day Celebrations

Source: APO

Beyond the uniform and demands of duty lies a bond that keeps soldiers together, the spirit of family.

Kenya Defence Forces (KDF) troops serving under the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) came together in Kismayo and Dhobley to mark Family Day, providing an opportunity for fellowship, reflection and appreciation of the bonds that unite them while serving away from home.

In Kismayo, the celebration was held at St Michael Catholic Church and was graced by the Deputy Sector 2 Commander, Colonel Daniel Musau. The occasion brought troops together in an atmosphere of fellowship, providing a moment to step away from routine operational responsibilities and reflect on the importance of unity and mutual support.

The celebrations featured a sermon centred on faith, gratitude and togetherness, reminding troops that the demands of military service are strengthened by the bonds they build with one another. The occasion also provided an opportunity for personnel to appreciate their shared experiences and reaffirm their commitment to supporting one another in the course of duty.

A similar celebration was held at St Michael Catholic Church in Dhobley, where troops and civilian staff from Dhobley Main Operating Base gathered for fellowship and a shared luncheon.
The occasion was graced by the Commander, Dhobley Main Operating Base, Colonel Paul Nalimo, who joined the troops in celebrating the spirit of unity and belonging within the KDF family.

The Family Day celebrations in Kismayo and Dhobley offered troops a valuable opportunity to strengthen camaraderie, reflect on their shared journey and celebrate the sense of family that remains an important source of strength during deployment.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Ministry of Defence – Kenya.

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African Union Commission (AUC) Chairperson was this evening hosted by Hon. Dhananjay Ramful, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Regional Integration and International Trade of the Republic of Mauritius

Source: APO

H.E. Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, Chairperson of the African Union (AU) Commission, was this evening hosted by Hon. Dhananjay Ramful, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Regional Integration and International Trade of the Republic of #Mauritius.

Minister Ramful expressed appreciation to the Chairperson for his visit & for his support to Mauritius’ efforts to host the official launch of the African Credit Rating Agency.

They also  exchanged on strengthening regional cooperation, including in the area of maritime security.

The Chairperson commended Mauritius for its longstanding commitment to good governance, good-neighbourliness & regional cooperation, and welcomed the country’s ratification of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Agreement.

He further expressed appreciation to the Government of Mauritius for its valuable contribution to the AU-led Ebola response.
The Chairperson is in St Louis, Mauritius, for the official launch of the African Credit Rating Agency tomorrow.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Union (AU).

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Uganda: Members of Parliament (MPs) Wants Safeguards for Government’s Shs723.4 Billion Investment in Dei BioPharma

Source: APO


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The Committee on Presidential Affairs has called for stronger accountability, reliable utilities and clear performance targets for Dei BioPharma Limited, following a government investment of Shs723.4 billion in the pharmaceutical manufacturing project.

The committee during its assessment of the company’s performance revealed that the substantial public investment in the privately operated company lacks proper documentation of the government’s shareholding, expected returns, project deliverables and measurable benefits to Ugandans.

“Government should ensure that clear documentation of government’s shares in Dei BioPharma, the expected returns, deliverables and performance targets, commensurate with the public resources invested are provided,” said Hon. Martin Mapenduzi while presenting the committee’s report on its assessment of selected Science, Technology and Innovation Projects.

Mapenduzi presented the report during the plenary sitting chaired by Deputy Speaker Thomas Tayebwa on Tuesday, 06 October 2026.

According to the report, government provided Shs70 billion to Dei BioPharma in the 2023/2024 financial year, an additional Shs75 billion in December 2023 and Shs578.4 billion through a supplementary budget in the 2024/2025 financial year.

The committee also found out that government holds a 9.4 per cent stake in the company, which is expected to increase if additional financing is provided. However, proof of the government’s shareholding was not presented during the assessment.

Dei BioPharma operates a 150-acre pharmaceutical manufacturing complex in Matugga, Wakiso District, comprising laboratories and facilities for the production of generic medicines, vaccines, injectables, oncology medicines, penicillin, medical devices and other pharmaceutical products.

The company however operates below its capacity due to gaps in infrastructural development and funding. In the 2024/2025 financial year, Dei Biopharma produced and distributed six generic medicines, including paracetamol, tramadol, metformin, doxycycline and metronidazole. However, a number of specialised production lines remain under installation, validation and commissioning.

“The current level and range of production remain below the envisaged capacity of the overall investment. Unless this financial gap is urgently addressed, government risks having a strategically important national investment operating below capacity,” said Mapenduzi.

He called for the speedy completion and commissioning of the remaining production lines to support import substitution, national medicine security, pharmaceutical exports and employment creation.

In this, the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development was tasked to provide the additional US$434 million required to complete and fully operationalise the facility which has reportedly created more than 1,000 jobs and is projected to generate up to 20,000 employment opportunities when fully operational.

The report also recommends government to prioritise the provision of 100 MW of reliable electricity to the facility and the National Water and Sewerage Corporation to establish adequate water-treatment and storage infrastructure, noting that the facility requires between seven million and 10 million litres of water daily to operate at full capacity.

Other projects assessed include; the Engineering Development and Innovation Centre in Kiruhura District, the Nyakihanga Fruit Factory in Ntungamo district, the Banana Industrial Research and Development Center in Bushenyi district, the Africa Coffee Park in Ntungamo district.  

Debate on the report is scheduled for Wednesday, 07 October 2026.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Parliament of the Republic of Uganda.

Cabo Verde: PR interina inteira-se de projetos da diáspora que promovem desporto e empreendedorismo no país

Source: Africa Press Organisation – Portuguese –

Baixar .tipo

A Presidente da República Interina recebeu, na manhã desta terça-feira, a Presidente e Fundadora da Hello Cabo Verde – Rede Cabo Verde Diáspora, Andreia Levy, que lhe apresentou um projeto de complexo desportivo, educativo e turístico de excelência para Cabo Verde.

Janira Hopffer Almada pôde conhecer os meandros da iniciativa que visa conceber infraestruturas capazes de atrair regularmente ao país clubes e seleções nacionais para estágios de preparação, competições e eventos internacionais, academias e programas de formação, bem como investidores e operadores internacionais dos setores do desporto e do turismo.

A Presidente da República interina congratulou-se com a proposta, tendo em conta o seu potencial para diversificar as oportunidades de desenvolvimento das infraestruturas desportivas e dinamizar o setor do desporto, gerar emprego e elevar o desporto cabo-verdiano no contexto nacional e continental. Considerou, por isso, pertinente a sua apresentação às autoridades cabo-verdianas.

Durante o encontro, Andreia Levy aproveitou ainda para expor um conjunto de outras iniciativas que pretendem criar oportunidades de negócio, formação e emprego para a juventude cabo-verdiana.

Distribuído pelo Grupo APO para Presidência da República de Cabo Verde.

Deputy Minister Mhlauli to appear before Parliamentary Committee on Stats SA Annual Report and 2026/27 performance

Source: President of South Africa –

The Deputy Minister in The Presidency, Nonceba Mhlauli, will appear in the Parliamentary Committee on the 2025/2026 Annual Report and Audited Financial Statements of Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) on Wednesday, 7 October 2026. The virtual engagement will also consider the entity’s first and second quarter expenditure and performance reports for the 2026/2027 financial year.

This forms part of Parliament’s oversight responsibilities and will provide an opportunity for the Committee to engage with Statistics South Africa on its financial and operational performance. Key areas of discussion will include the audit outcomes and findings of the Auditor-General of South Africa, areas of under-performance, under- and overspending, irregular, fruitless and wasteful expenditure, as well as human resource matter

The Committee will also receive an update on progress made in implementing recommendations contained in the previous Budgetary Review and Recommendation Report for the 2024/2025 financial year, alongside expenditure and performance recorded during the first and second quarters of the current financial year.

Deputy Minister Mhlauli will participate alongside the relevant officials.

Details of the Event are as follows:

Date: Wednesday, 7 October 2026
Platform: Zoom
Time: 09h30 
 

Media enquiries: Mandisa Mbele, Office of the Deputy Minister in The Presidency, on 082 580 2213 or mandisam@presidency.gov.za

Issued by: The Presidency
Pretoria

Cabo Verde: PR interina recebe cidadãos em audiências de proximidade

Source: Africa Press Organisation – Portuguese –

A Presidente da República interina, Janira Hopffer Almada, recebeu na manhã desta terça-feira o Comandante reformado Manuel Alves e a Dra. Dunia Pereira, em audiências realizadas no quadro da proximidade que pretende cultivar com a sociedade.

Com esta disponibilidade, Hopffer Almada quer efetivar uma Presidência interina aberta e acessível, pautada pela auscultação permanente dos cidadãos e pela valorização do diá. institucional e social.

Distribuído pelo Grupo APO para Presidência da República de Cabo Verde.

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Ebola : un premier cas importé confirmé au Kenya

Source: Africa Press Organisation – French

Le Kenya renforce sa riposte après un premier cas importé d’Ebola, confirmé chez un ressortissant revenu de République démocratique du Congo (RDC) et décédé à Nairobi. Dans l’est de la RDC, l’épidémie continue de bouleverser les familles : plus de 1 900 enfants ont perdu un ou leurs deux parents, ou ont été séparés de leurs proches, selon l’UNICEF

Le Kenya est devenu le quatrième pays à confirmer un cas de maladie à virus Ebola causée par le virus Bundibugyo, après la RDC, l’Ouganda et la France. L’épidémie reste active dans l’est de la RDC, tandis que celle survenue en Ouganda s’est achevée en août. La France avait signalé un cas lié à un voyage en juin.

L’Organisation mondiale de la santé (OMS) appuie les autorités kényanes pour prévenir toute propagation du virus.

Le patient, un ressortissant kenyan qui vivait en RDC, y était tombé malade et avait été soigné dans plusieurs établissements. Le 2 octobre, il a rejoint Kampala (Ouganda) par la route, via Beni (RDC), avant de prendre un avion pour Nairobi, où il est arrivé le lendemain.

Hospitalisé et rapidement isolé à son arrivée, il a été testé positif par deux laboratoires kényans. Malgré les soins, il est décédé dans la nuit du 5 octobre. Il a été inhumé le 6 octobre selon le protocole d’inhumation sûre et digne prévu pour Ebola.

Le Kenya a notifié ce cas à l’OMS le 6 octobre, conformément au Règlement sanitaire international.

Retrouver les contacts et contenir le virus

Les autorités ont recensé 28 contacts, dont des proches et des soignants. Elles recherchent également 23 passagers et quatre membres d’équipage du même vol. Le suivi et la quarantaine des personnes considérées comme à risque sont en cours d’organisation.

Avec l’OMS, le gouvernement renforce l’enquête, la surveillance des contacts, le dépistage aux points d’entrée à haut risque et l’information des communautés.

« La priorité est désormais d’agir rapidement pour détecter tout nouveau cas avant que le virus ait la possibilité de se propager », a déclaré le Dr Mohamed Janabi, Directeur régional de l’OMS pour l’Afrique.

En alerte renforcée depuis les déclarations d’épidémies en RDC et en Ouganda en mai, le Kenya avait déjà soumis plus de 652 000 voyageurs à un dépistage, analysé 267 échantillons suspects et formé environ 5 000 professionnels de santé au 6 octobre.

« La préparation aux urgences sanitaires nous donne une longueur d’avance », a souligné le Dr Janabi.

L’OMS et ses partenaires ont soutenu des simulations et des formations à l’intervention rapide. Des unités d’isolement ont été identifiées et évaluées dans 27 comtés à haut risque, et les outils de surveillance actualisés.

L’OMS a également fourni environ 1 000 tests Ebola et 1 000 kits de protection individuelle. L’indicateur de préparation du pays est passé de 66 % en mai à 82 % en juillet.

Sur la base des informations disponibles, l’OMS déconseille toute restriction aux voyages ou au commerce avec la RDC, l’Ouganda ou le Kenya.

En RDC, une épidémie qui bouleverse les familles

Alors que le Kenya cherche à prévenir toute propagation, le foyer épidémique reste actif dans l’est de la RDC, notamment en Ituri et au Nord-Kivu.

Selon le bilan arrêté au 3 octobre, 8 544 cas confirmés ont été recensés, dont 4 114 décès, soit une létalité de 48,2 %. Quelque 2 230 patients ont été déclarés guéris, tandis que 824 étaient encore isolés ou hospitalisés.

Au-delà du bilan sanitaire, les conséquences pour les enfants sont considérables. Le Fonds des Nations Unies pour l’enfance (UNICEF) indique que plus de 1 900 enfants ont perdu un ou leurs deux parents, ou ont été séparés de leurs parents ou tuteurs depuis le début de l’épidémie, en mai.

Au 28 septembre, 1 581 de ces enfants avaient été recensés en Ituri et 322 au Nord-Kivu.

« Pour les enfants, Ebola peut déclencher une réaction en chaîne aux conséquences graves », a déclaré Lucia Elmi, Directrice des opérations d’urgence de l’UNICEF, à l’issue d’une visite à Bunia, épicentre de l’épidémie.

« Un parent tombe malade et l’enfant risque d’être exposé. Ce parent est ensuite hospitalisé ou décède, laissant l’enfant sans la personne dont il dépend, tandis que la peur de la contagion et la stigmatisation dissuadent les proches et les voisins d’intervenir ».

Des enfants particulièrement vulnérables

À Bunia, l’UNICEF a également identifié 214 enfants vivant et travaillant dans la rue qui ont besoin de protection. Sans tuteur, ils courent un risque d’infection et risquent d’échapper au suivi des contacts ou de ne pas recevoir de soins s’ils tombent malades. Ils sont aussi davantage exposés à l’exploitation et à la violence.

Les enfants paient un lourd tribut à l’épidémie. Au 29 septembre, au moins 2 076 avaient été testés positifs à Ebola et au moins 1 162 en étaient décédés, selon une analyse de l’UNICEF portant sur les données du ministère de la Santé pour lesquelles l’âge des patients était renseigné.

Ils représentent plus d’un cas confirmé sur quatre, mais environ un décès sur trois. Les plus jeunes sont particulièrement menacés : sept enfants de moins de cinq ans sur dix atteints d’Ebola en sont morts, contre six sur dix quelques semaines auparavant. Beaucoup décèdent avant même de pouvoir accéder à un traitement.

L’UNICEF soutient des crèches près des centres de traitement

« À Bunia, j’ai rencontré Lina, un bébé de sept mois qui a survécu à Ebola après avoir perdu sa mère, emportée par la maladie », a raconté Mme Elmi.

« Son histoire nous rappelle avec force que soigner un enfant atteint d’Ebola ne suffit pas. Des espaces dédiés aux tout-petits doivent faire partie intégrante de tout centre de traitement contre Ebola : ils protègent les enfants et rassurent les parents, qui sont ainsi plus enclins à se faire soigner, sachant que leurs enfants sont en sécurité et à proximité ».

Pour répondre à ces besoins, l’UNICEF soutient 12 crèches installées à proximité des centres de traitement d’Ebola en Ituri, au Nord-Kivu et au Sud-Kivu. Elles accueillent les enfants exposés au virus, non accompagnés ou dont les personnes qui s’occupent d’eux sont en cours de traitement. Ce dispositif permet aussi de surveiller l’apparition d’éventuels symptômes et d’orienter rapidement les enfants vers des soins pédiatriques.

L’UNICEF assure également la recherche des familles, le regroupement familial et la mise en place de solutions de prise en charge alternative. Les services soutenus par l’agence ont bénéficié à plus de 90 000 personnes grâce à des séances de psychoéducation, tandis que près de 16 000 proches ont reçu un soutien psychosocial à domicile.

Pour poursuivre ces actions, l’UNICEF demande 150,8 millions de dollars, dont 113,4 millions pour la réponse en RDC. À ce jour, 40,1 millions ont été mobilisés.

Distribué par APO Group pour UN News.

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Liberia Participates in the 2nd Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Startup Awards

Source: APO


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The Republic of Liberia was represented at the 2nd ECOWAS Startup Awards, held from 21–30 September 2026 at the ECOWAS Commission Headquarters in Abuja, Nigeria.

Representing the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Hon. Benedict A. Dolo, Deputy Minister for Small Business Administration, attended the event on behalf of the Ministry. The regional initiative brought together governments, entrepreneurs, investors, development partners, business support organizations, and innovative startups from across the ECOWAS region.

The 2026 ECOWAS Startup Awards focused on promoting innovation, entrepreneurship, digital transformation, youth empowerment, and private-sector development, with emphasis on six strategic sectors: EdTech, FinTech, HealthTech, AgriTech, CleanTech, and Tourism and Travel Technology.

The event also featured startup pitching, exhibitions, networking, business-to-business engagements, mentorship, and investor interactions, culminating in the recognition of the top three startups on 30 September 2026.

Hon. Dolo’s participation on behalf of Liberia underscores the Ministry of Commerce and Industry’s commitment to strengthening Liberia’s startup and MSME ecosystem, supporting innovation, and connecting Liberian entrepreneurs with regional opportunities for growth, investment, and competitiveness. 

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Ministry of Commerce & Industry, The Government of the Republic of Liberia.

‘Ebola takes the people children depend on’: United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF)

Source: APO

The update comes as neighbouring Kenya confirmed its first case and death from the disease, believed to have come from DRC. 

“Ebola takes the people children depend on and unravels their lives,” said Halimatou Amadou, UNICEF Chief of Communication in the DRC, speaking to journalists in Geneva. 

“The parents fall ill, a child may be exposed, the parent is taken for treatment or dies. At the very moment a child most needs someone, fear and stigma can keep relatives and neighbours away.” 

Nearly 2,000 children affected 

More than 1,900 boys and girls have either lost one or both parents, or their caregivers, since the outbreak was declared in May, or have been separated from them. 

Most of these children, 1,581, are in North Kivu province, the epicentre of the crisis. A further 322 are in neighbouring North Kivu province. 

“And these are the children we know about because these figures cover only the area where UNICEF works with social affairs teams in the affected provinces,” she said. 

Fighters and survivors 

Ms. Amadou put names behind the numbers, such as Lina*, a seven-month-old girl who she met at a UNICEF-supported nursery next to an Ebola treatment centre in Bunia, the Ituri capital. 

Lina’s mother died and her father is missing. Her grandfather, who lives nearby, has visited twice and the hope is that they will soon be together.  

Another child, Raphael*, just eight months old, survived Ebola but lost eight family members. He stayed at the nursery for more than three weeks until his older brother could take him home. 

Young lives lost 

“Children are not only losing their parents. They’re also losing their own lives,” Ms. Amadou said. 

As of 29 September, at least 2,017 children had been confirmed with Ebola in DRC. At least 1,062 have died.  

She noted that children make up just over one in four confirmed cases, but around one in three deaths. However, the situation is worse among under-fives where the death rate is seven in 10, up from six in 10 just a few weeks ago. 

“Many die before the virus is ever detected, before they ever reach treatment,” she said. 

Care and access 

While in Bunia Ms. Amadou “also saw what works” for young lives upended by Ebola. 

UNICEF supports 12 nurseries in Ituri and North Kivyu that care for babies and young children who have been exposed to the virus, or whose parents are in treatment, or who are on their own. 

“Children are fed, they are held, they’re cared for, they are also watched closely so that if symptoms appear, they get paediatric care fast,” she said. 

UNICEF is calling for nurseries at every Ebola treatment centre in the DRC, while underscoring the need to maintain health essential services. That way children receive early detection and quick referral to Ebola care, as well as protection from common childhood diseases.  

First case in Kenya 

Meanwhile, the World Health Organization (WHO) is monitoring the situation in Kenya, which on Tuesday confirmed its first case and fatality, according to media reports. 

Spokesman Christian Lindmeier the case was “likely imported from DRC” but more information was not available.  

He said colleagues on the ground are working with the Kenyan authorities to get more details. 

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of UN News.

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Sudan’s death toll in 2025 could be as high as 100,000: how we did the count

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Paola Vesco, Senior Researcher, Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)

Estimates of the number of people directly killed in Sudan’s civil war vary widely, in part because counting casualties in active conflict zones is extremely difficult. In 2025, for instance, one conflict monitoring organisation reported around 19,000 direct deaths from political violence across Sudan. Other research teams put the toll at more than 70,000.

Conflict researcher Paola Vesco and her team have developed a model that helps measure the uncertainty around such conflict death estimates. Their approach takes into account the tendency of conflict datasets to underestimate fatalities, and provides a more realistic range of possible death tolls. They explain how their model could improve estimates in conflicts like Sudan’s.


What do we know about the number of dead in Sudan?

The number of people killed in Sudan’s war since it began in April 2023 remains contested. Deaths in 2025 have been especially hard to establish as communications were cut and humanitarian access was blocked.

In 2025, fighting intensified as the Rapid Support Forces – a paramilitary group which has fought the Sudanese army for control of the state since 2023 – advanced in Darfur and North Kordofan. Civilian deaths and displacement rose.

In February 2026, a UN fact-finding mission concluded that the Rapid Support Forces’ killings in El-Fasher bore the hallmarks of genocide.

The group’s capture of El-Fasher in the Darfur region in October 2025, after an 18-month siege, marked a significant territorial and strategic shift in the war. It consolidated the Rapid Support Forces’ control over much of Darfur and strengthened their position in western Sudan. It was also one of the war’s deadliest episodes.

Map of Sudan showing El-Fasher. Wikimedia

ACLED, a global conflict monitoring organisation, reported around 19,000 deaths, which it describes as a conservative minimum count of deaths directly caused by political violence in Sudan in 2025.

The Uppsala Conflict Data Program, a research team at Uppsala University that has recorded conflict deaths worldwide for decades, estimated that attacks against civilians killed at least 60,000 people. More than 10,000 died in fighting between the army and armed groups.

Drawing on survivors’ reports, satellite imagery and other evidence, Yale’s Humanitarian Research Lab estimates that at least 60,000 people were killed during and after the paramilitary group’s capture of El-Fasher between late October and the end of December 2025.

Even worse, these figures capture only direct deaths from violence in Sudan. Many more have probably died from disease and starvation, as the Rapid Support Forces built earthen walls around El-Fasher in an effort to starve out the population.

Why are the estimates so different?

The true number of war deaths can never be known with certainty, but scholars understand reasonably well why estimates vary.

Much of the difference across reports stems from how organisations select and handle sources.

The Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s estimate of 60,000 killed in El-Fasher draws directly on Yale’s Humanitarian Research Lab. It is corroborated by independent reporting from Sudanese media, NGOs and UN agencies.

Beyond this “best” (most likely) figure, Uppsala’s programme also keeps a “high” estimate (75,000), reflecting the upper end of Yale’s assessment, and a markedly lower “low” estimate to flag that the exact number of deaths is uncertain.

ACLED, on the other hand, reports a single fatality number. When sources disagree, it takes the most conservative figure.

The differences in the estimates of deaths also stem from how monitoring organisations process information.

Both the Uppsala Conflict Data Program and ACLED record the exact date and location of violent incidents when these are available. But ACLED only counts deaths that can be linked to a specific incident. Deaths reported only as a broad total, without identifiable incidents, may therefore be left out. Uppsala’s programme instead records them as a “summary” event, which presents the total death toll over a longer period or a wider area, rather than for a single attack.

This apparently simple rule matters enormously when many smaller, undated incidents add up to a large total, as in El-Fasher.

What did you do differently and what numbers did you come up with?

Providing an uncertainty estimate – a plausible range rather than a single number of people who may have died in war – reflects how much confidence an estimate deserves, and invites caution.

Still, most sources report only one number.

In a recently published article, we built an uncertainty estimate. We surveyed Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s expert coders to build a model converting any single number into a range of people that have plausibly died in a given war. This range is known as a “probability distribution”.

We applied this model to Sudan in 2025. The results are provided in the figure below. For each number of deaths on the horizontal axis, the height of the curve shows how plausible that number is according to our model. The higher the curve, the more plausible the number.

The peak of the curve from our model indicates that the most likely death toll in Sudan’s war in 2025 is close to 80,000 deaths. As our model is estimated from the Uppsala programme, it is unsurprising that this estimate is close to what they report.

Probability distribution of plausible fatalities for Sudan, 2025, estimated from our scientific article (Vesco et al., 2026, Journal of Conflict Resolution: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00220027261423826).

We find that the true number of people killed in 2025 is very likely (with a 90% probability) to fall between 73,000 and 90,000, and there is a small chance that the actual number is as high as 100,000.

This relatively small range indicates that the uncertainty around Sudan’s deaths is much narrower than assumed – even the lower bound number far exceeds many official estimates.

Our estimates, however, should be read with caution. They are informed by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s knowledge and only indirectly reflect other estimates. Crucially, our model results cannot be checked against the true number of deaths, which tends to remain unknown as conflict actors have incentives to conceal it.

Despite these caveats, providing a range of people that plausibly have died in war instead of a single figure gives weight to the estimate, and leaves little room to dismiss inconvenient numbers as unreliable.

Why are these data points important?

Understanding how conflict death estimates vary across sources, and why, increases transparency.

Around the attack on El-Fasher, the uncertainty around death reports became a political issue. We argue that it should be a scientific one. One that can be measured.

The evidence suggests that the El-Fasher massacre could have been prevented. Throughout the siege, NGOs and academic institutions repeatedly warned foreign officials of an impending bloodbath.

Pressure against the United Arab Emirates – the Rapid Support Forces’ main supporter – could have curbed the flow of weapons to the group. Yet, western politicians prioritised economic and political ties with Abu Dhabi over preventing atrocity. Officials looked the other way, ignoring or downplaying the reports of rising deaths as uncertain.

Since fighting broke out between the army and the Rapid Support Forces, Sudan has become one of the world’s worst humanitarian and displacement crises. More than 34 million people – over half the country’s population – need humanitarian assistance, including food aid. An estimated 14 million people have been displaced.

This suffering could have been foreseen and minimised. Even in the most conservative case, our model finds that more than 70,000 people died in 2025, most of them within a few months. Are 70,000 deaths enough to look the other way?

Conflict monitoring organisations such as the Uppsala Conflict Data Program have documented war deaths for decades, drawing on vetted sources and consistent coding rules. Since the uncertainty around their figures can be quantified, as our model shows, this uncertainty is no longer a reason for delay or inaction.

Decision-makers often have the information they need to act early. Used in time, this information can help prevent atrocities and save lives.

– Sudan’s death toll in 2025 could be as high as 100,000: how we did the count
– https://theconversation.com/sudans-death-toll-in-2025-could-be-as-high-as-100-000-how-we-did-the-count-292159