Category: The Conversation

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Moses Ngware, Senior Research Scientist, African Population and Health Research Center

Many countries across Africa have embraced universal basic education policies in recent decades. But recent data has revealed that more than 100 million children and adolescents remain out of school, out of a total potential population of 469 million. The latest statistics suggest that after some years of progress, the situation is deteriorating. Education and youth empowerment scholar Moses Ngware and his co-researchers recently carried out an analysis of trends going back 25 years. Their main findings are set out below.

What are the school attendance trends in Africa across all age groups?

In 2000, the number of out-of-school children in primary school, lower secondary and upper secondary was above 100 million. It was down to about 90 million in 2014, and then up again to 100 million by 2025.

Viewed against Africa’s high population growth of above 2.5%, these absolute numbers suggest that school participation is not keeping pace.

Nevertheless, between 2000 and 2024, the proportion of out-of-school children and adolescents declined at all education levels. It fell from 37% to 20% for primary schools; from 47% to 35% for lower secondary and from 56% to 47% for upper secondary school-age children. This is despite the absolute numbers of out-of-school children remaining high.

Countries that showed greatest improvement included Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Guinea, Madagascar and Mozambique. Improvements were driven by at least two main factors. First, targeted policy responses that enabled them to achieve good coverage in a short time. Second, a strong political will combined with a multi-sectoral approach. The approaches included combining conditional cash transfers for households, food supplies, expanding access to schools and implementing universal education policies that reduce cost of schooling for households.

On the other hand, there are countries that made little or no progress. They include Angola, Cape Verde, Lesotho, South Sudan and Zimbabwe. The main drivers of the low progress are:

• political instability, as seen in South Sudan

• poor economic performance, as witnessed in Zimbabwe

• the high opportunity cost of schooling, as seen in Lesotho, where boys drop out due to poverty related coping mechanisms, including herding cattle, with only one in every five boys completing grade 12.

What are the notable changes in recent years?

In the past five years, we have seen a steady increase in absolute numbers of out-of-school children and adolescents from 95 million to 100 million, with an average of about 1 million children either not transitioning from primary to secondary school or leaving school or not joining school at all.

There are two main drivers of such a trend. First, finance – the fizzling effect of the universal basic education subsidies of the early 2000s. These subsidies made basic education affordable to many households. Of the 42 African countries with free education in their policies, only three were in a position to offer free schooling in 2025. Donor funding of education by multilateral organisations has also been reduced, with education aid in Africa declining by 7% in 2024. Second, the negative impact of COVID-19, with about 10 million who left school due to the lockdowns never to return, for various reasons, including forced marriages among girls and child labour for boys.

Across all the schooling levels, higher than before rates of out-of-school children and adolescents were observed in the Sahel region, in Central African Republic, Chad, Mauritania and northern Nigeria. These countries or regions are characterised by politically motivated violence, harsh climatic changes and a history of low school participation.

Why is school completion important for societies?

The main benefits to societies of school completion include transition to decent work, girls’ empowerment, and improved health outcomes. An additional year of schooling increases an individual’s lifetime earnings by about 10% on average, with a potential to increase an individual’s purchasing power. Such benefits can also trickle down to households through providing household financial stability and enhanced family support.

For girls, school completion is critical for participation in decision making at societal level. Research shows that a woman’s power to make decisions, such as education for her children or where to invest, increases with education attainment. This has a bearing on economic independence and gender equity within the society.

Furthermore, and related to these two benefits, children of mothers who have completed secondary education have a 45% lower under-3 mortality rate. This implies that such children have about half the risk of death before age 3 compared to those born to mothers with no education.

What are the gender dynamics?

By 2025, the proportion of males that were out of school, at 51%, was only slightly higher than that of females. However, the out-of-school female rate was on the rise – up by two percentage points in 10 years.

If this growth continues, then the proportion of out-of-school females will overtake that of males in the coming years. This will compound the vulnerabilities disadvantaged girls face in their schooling journey and transition to work.

In addition, the gains made in the last three decades in closing gender gaps in education will be eroded. Eroding the gains made in education has severe consequences, especially for girls. For instance, we are likely to see an increase in females getting married much earlier, and child bearing among adolescents may also increase.

What lessons can we learn from the better-placed countries?

There are a number of important lessons to be learnt from countries that have lowered the number of out-of-school children and adolescents.

First, Algeria, Ghana, Kenya and Rwanda have relied on a strong national policy framework backed by political good will, high-level central coordination and donor-partner support.

Second is the importance of targeted social support such as school feeding and conditional cash transfers. Close evaluations using hard data are needed.

Third is the elimination of significant direct fees or levies at basic education level, with timely financial disbursements and school supplies.

Fourth is the lesson that affirmative action for vulnerable populations is an invaluable investment. These populations include disadvantaged girls, children from remote rural areas, children with disabilities, and children from poor households.

Finally, there are other interventions that can add value depending on the context. These include reducing travel distance through expanding infrastructure, and flexible school entry, such as late entry to improve participation. Another is catch-up programmes, which means accelerating progression to recover lost time and learning.

– 100 million African children are not in school. What’s driving the trend and how to reverse it
– https://theconversation.com/100-million-african-children-are-not-in-school-whats-driving-the-trend-and-how-to-reverse-it-280637

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Steve Lindsay, Emeritus professor, Durham University

Malaria, diarrhoea and pneumonia are preventable childhood diseases that are major causes of death in young children. They’re transmitted largely in and around the home, where children spend most of their time.

For example, around 80% of malaria transmission in Africa occurs when people are bitten by malarial mosquitoes indoors at night. Diarrhoea results usually from food and water that’s been contaminated by faeces. It can also be spread through poor hygiene. Pneumonia is spread through overcrowding and poor ventilation, and is exacerbated by indoor air pollution.

---

Read more: Africa needs 50 million new homes, but building is bad for the environment: how to finance ‘green’ solutions

---

We are an international group of specialists from different fields including architecture, communications, global health, medical anthropology, public health entomology, engineering and statistics.

To see if it might be possible for a newly designed house to help prevent malaria, pneumonia and diarrhoea in children, one of us (Danish architect Jakob Knudsen) came up with a new design. We called it the Star home.

This house costs 24% less in materials than a conventional single-storey cement-block house. It also uses 73% less concrete, and generates 57% less embodied carbon (the amount of carbon emissions released from the time raw materials are turned into building materials for the house to the end of the home’s life). Our analysis revealed a fourfold return on investment over 50 years once health, water, cooling and energy savings are accounted for.

The features of the Star home are:

• Double-storey buildings. Bedrooms are positioned on the upper floor, away from mosquitoes, which are most abundant at ground level.

• Cross-ventilation, where air passes across the room. We increased ventilation inside the home by using walls made of shade net, instead of solid walls. These also cooled sleeping areas and deterred mosquitoes from entering the room.

• Mosquito screens on doors and windows. These screens keep malaria mosquitoes and flies out.

• Self-closing doors. These minimise the entry of mosquitoes and flies.

• Clean water harvesting, improved pit latrines and improved cooking stoves.

We put the Star home through a three year, peer-reviewed trial to see if it could reduce malaria, diarrhoea and pneumonia among children.

Our findings were startling: After three years, children living in the Star homes had 44% less clinical malaria, 30% less diarrhoea and 18% less pneumonia than those living in traditional houses.

---

Read more: Nigeria has Africa’s highest malaria death rate – progress is being made, but it’s not enough

---

Because they were protected from three serious illnesses, their overall health improved and the children grew taller than children living in traditional houses.

Our study also demonstrated that the new, comfortable Star house has a lower carbon footprint than the cement-block houses that are currently built in sub-Saharan Africa. Put simply, we used less energy to build a Star home than is used in building a typical cement house constructed in a village.

---

Read more: Health risks at home: a study in six African countries shows how healthy housing saves children’s lives

---

We also found that passive cooling in the Star home made the home more comfortable in hot weather even though it did not have air conditioning, which consumes energy.

Our study demonstrates that small improvements in design are likely to make a major health impact on the lives of children in Africa.

The ground work

We first set about understanding how the pathogens causing the three diseases spread in and around the home.

Malaria: How mosquitoes enter houses has been the subject of research for decades. Research shows that they find people mainly by smell. From far away, they follow the carbon dioxide humans breathe out, and when they get closer, they are guided by smells produced by bacteria on human skin.

Diarrhoea: Houses with a regular supply of clean water, clean food preparation areas, fly-proof latrines and kitchens can help reduce the spread of this disease.

Pneumonia: This is spread through air-borne pathogens and is made worse by smoke-filled kitchens which damage the lungs.

We then developed the Star homes and tested whether they were healthier by carrying out a randomised controlled trial in southern Tanzania, an area with high levels of malaria.

In the trials, we recruited children under 13 years of age and randomly allocated them to 110 Star homes and 513 traditional mud and thatched-roof houses.

These children were followed weekly for signs of illness for three years and the data from the clinical trial were analysed.

Africa’s housing boom: a chance to build healthier homes

Africa’s population is the most rapidly expanding in the world, with the current population of 1.5 billion people expected to increase to 2.7-3.7 billion by 2070.

Hundreds of millions of new homes will need to be constructed soon.

There has never been a better time to build healthier homes on the continent. Improvements in rural housing are increasing at a fast pace.

---

Read more: Building Zambian homes with local materials delivers benefits that imports don’t: study

---

Governments can take a number of steps to help. For example, they can facilitate the construction of better rural homes by assuring ownership rights (titles). These are essential for homeowners who want to apply for loans to carry out healthy home improvements. Governments could also reduce import taxes on fly screening, and provide advice and support for the construction of healthy homes.

We hope that this study will stimulate further innovation by people working in the built environment who could collaborate with local communities to construct healthier homes for rural people in low- and middle-income countries. Simple improvements in housing can have profound impacts on improving public health.

(About our team: Salum Mshamu, a Tanzanian scientist, carried out trials on the Star home as part of his PhD studies at Oxford University. Jakob Knudsen has been designing healthy and cooler homes in the tropics, particularly in Tanzania, for over 30 years. Lorenz von Seidlein is a paediatric clinician who has studied the epidemiology and control of childhood infections, principally malaria, in different parts of the tropics. Steve Lindsay has over 40 years of experience working on the control of mosquitoes and flies, including running clinical trials of housing interventions.)

– Better-designed homes could cut three major child diseases by up to 44% – Tanzania trial
– https://theconversation.com/better-designed-homes-could-cut-three-major-child-diseases-by-up-to-44-tanzania-trial-281890

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Michele Ramsay, Director of the Sydney Brenner Institute for Molecular Bioscience, Professor in the Division of Human Genetics, University of the Witwatersrand

Throughout history, most of the world’s genomic research has relied on DNA data from people of European ancestry.

A genome is the full DNA code of about three billion (a thousand million) bases, including all the chromosomes. Each person has two genomes: one from their mother and the other from their father.

Well resourced environments favour European-based research generating hundreds of thousands of whole human genomes with associated health data. Yet modern humans, our species, evolved on the African continent. African populations therefore contain the deepest branches of human genetic history and the greatest genetic diversity on the planet. Yet the continent remains strikingly underrepresented in global genomic databases.

The African continent is populated by people from over 2,000 ethnolinguistic groups, yet genetic data exist for fewer than a hundred groups. This is akin to having a GPS map of a city with only 5% of the streets marked and the rest left blank.

This bias has profoundly shaped modern medicine, from disease prediction tools to ancestry testing. And it’s why researchers increasingly recognise that studying African genomes has the potential to reveal insights and health-related biological pathways never observed before.

As a team of researchers we were involved in identifying under-represented groups in nine African countries for human whole-genome sequencing. Our multidisciplinary team involved in the Assessing Genetic Diversity in Africa project (AGenDA) has worked out ethical ways to obtain, record and share genetic material and to add to global databases.

The AGenDA dataset alone is expected to uncover millions of previously unknown genetic variants and analyses are underway. These discoveries will inform research into diseases that affect populations in African and worldwide. They include diabetes, heart disease, cancer and neurological or mental health conditions.

This is only a first step. Capturing the full scope of African genomic diversity will require hundreds of thousands of genomes. The project aims to bridge some of the most obvious gaps rather than fully map the continent’s diversity.

But expanding African genomic data is not only important for Africa. It will strengthen global biomedical science.

What it takes

Modern genomic science relies on large databases of DNA sequences to understand disease risk, ancestry and human evolution. These databases underpin a wide range of scientific and medical tools. They are used in medical research, disease prediction, drug development, ancestry testing and increasingly in artificial intelligence models that analyse health data.

When a population is absent from a reference database, a library of whole genome sequences, science simply cannot detect it. Genetic algorithms work by comparing individuals to reference populations. In the absence of a specific reference population, the algorithms will assign the closest available match.

This problem becomes particularly visible in ancestry testing. This is a form of genetic testing often used to learn more about biological heritage. Because African reference data remain incomplete, people with African ancestry may receive vague or misleading results about their origins.

Without more African genomic data the assignment of specific ancestry may be incorrect. In addition, disease risk predictions would be misleading. For example it has been shown that standard doses for medications like warfarin (a blood thinner) or efavirenz (an HIV medication) could be ineffective or toxic for people who harbour specific variants that are more common in African populations.

Prior knowledge of the distribution of such variants in a population could be key to deciding the suitability of a drug for patients from that population.

Filling some of the gaps

The AGenDA project was designed to begin addressing some of the gaps in genome data and African representation. This project involved large multi-country scientific collaborations across the continent. It also required co-ordinating research across multiple ethics committees, regulatory frameworks and institutions. Scientists collaborated with research partners in Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, Libya, Mauritius, Rwanda, Tunisia and Zimbabwe.

The aim was not simply to increase the number of African genomes in global databases. Instead, the team carefully selected populations to address major geographic and ethnolinguistic gaps in genomic data.

But generating large genomic databases requires careful community engagement and consent from participants to share their data. Biological samples for DNA extraction must be collected and the sequencing performed one base at a time.

We therefore built community engagement and culturally appropriate consent processes into the project from the beginning.

More than 1,000 whole genomes were sequenced from communities that had rarely been included in previous genetic studies. These included:

• hunter-gatherer populations

• Nilo-Saharan-speaking communities

• Afro-Asiatic speakers

• understudied Bantu-speaking populations

• communities from north Africa and the Indian Ocean islands.

Selecting samples required careful consideration of what African diversity actually represents.

Genetic diversity does not map neatly onto modern national borders. Instead, researchers considered a range of additional factors. These included:

• poorly represented geographic regions in genomic databases

• major ancestral population histories

• languages spoken and self-identified ethnic groups

• recent patterns of migration.

In some cases, neighbouring communities may appear close due to geographic proximity but have distinct genetic histories that reflect population separations thousands of years ago.

Why studying African genomes benefits science everywhere

African genomes contain more genetic variation than populations on any other continent. This diversity provides a powerful resource for scientific discovery. When researchers study more diverse populations they are better able to achieve a number of things.

Firstly, they can identify new genetic variants.

Secondl,y they can investigate evolutionary forces, like natural selection, that have shaped the genomes of people in different parts of the world.

And thirdly, they can pinpoint variants that influence health and disease.

More inclusive genomic datasets are also essential as genomics becomes integrated with artificial intelligence systems that analyse medical data and predict health outcomes. Future medical technologies could be biased to work best for whoever is represented in the data.

Ultimately, expanding African genomic representation will help ensure that the benefits of genomic medicine are shared more equitably. At the same time, it will improve the accuracy and depth of understanding in global genetic science.

– Africa has the world’s greatest genetic diversity, yet it’s missing from research: we’re filling the gap
– https://theconversation.com/africa-has-the-worlds-greatest-genetic-diversity-yet-its-missing-from-research-were-filling-the-gap-278809

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Janet Appiah Osei, Research Fellow, African Research Universities Alliance (ARUA), University of Ghana

Every morning in Accra, Ghana’s capital, thousands of commuters sit in traffic while minibuses and taxis compete for limited road space.

More than 70% of Ghanaians rely on informal public transport, predominantly minibuses (trotros) and taxis, for their daily mobility. About 84% of passenger trips in Accra are made using these modes (a 2017 estimate). Precise counts of vehicles are not available due to the informal nature of the sector, but thousands of taxis and trotros are active on Accra’s roads each day.

Despite the constant movement, the traffic’s progress is slow. Ghana’s cities are moving, but not efficiently.

Taxi and minibus services are essential. They provide flexible, relatively affordable mobility and reach areas that formal systems do not. For millions of people, they are the backbone of daily travel.

Yet surprisingly little is known about their diversity and characteristics.

I research how urban transport systems can be made more efficient and climate-friendly, particularly in rapidly growing cities where there are mobility challenges.

In my recent study of commercial vehicle models in Ghana’s urban transport system, I identified 52 different types of taxis and trotros currently in operation. This diversity reflects a system shaped more by market demand than by coordinated, large-scale planning.

My findings show a highly diverse fleet structure, with differences in vehicle capacity and service patterns across the fleet. There’s a strong reliance on conventional fuels and older vehicles. These patterns suggest a fleet that has developed gradually over time, rather than through deliberate and structured modernisation. The result is traffic congestion, higher fuel consumption and increased emissions.

I argue that a more structured approach to urban transport could allow cities to move more people with fewer vehicles, reduce overlapping low-occupancy trips, and improve fleet regulation and planning.

Why efficiency is a growing problem

Most taxis, which are typically sedan cars, carry only a few passengers per trip and operate over short distances. Trotros seating about 10-20 people carry more passengers and travel longer routes. But they still fall short of the capacity offered by larger buses used for mass transit, which can carry 50 or more passengers per trip.

This means more vehicles are required to move the same number of passengers.

In Accra alone, roughly one million passenger trips are made daily using these modes. As demand increases, the system responds by adding more vehicles, not by increasing capacity per vehicle.

This pattern is evident in the the city’s rapid motorisation: vehicle ownership rose from about 40 per 1,000 people in 1990 to 260 per 1,000 in 2015. This highlights how growing mobility demand has largely been met through more vehicles on the road, rather than through more efficient, higher-capacity transport.

The result is growing congestion, longer travel times and increasing pressure on already limited road infrastructure.

For commuters, this means more time spent in traffic. For cities, it means declining transport efficiency.

Environmental costs of low-capacity transport

The dominance of low-occupancy vehicles also affects the environment.

Vehicles that carry fewer passengers generally consume more fuel and generate higher emissions per passenger-kilometre compared to higher-capacity modes of transport. For example, one study on urban transport found that transit buses can reduce emissions by 82%-94% relative to sedan cars.

The cumulative effect of a large fleet of low-occupancy vehicles in Accra contributes to higher overall fuel consumption and increased urban emissions.

Expanding and strengthening high-capacity public transport systems is not only a transport issue, but also an environmental one.

Economic implications for cities and commuters

Inefficiency in transport systems has direct economic consequences.

Higher fuel consumption increases operating costs for drivers, which can eventually translate into higher fares. Congestion slows down the movement of people and goods, reducing productivity and increasing the cost of doing business in urban areas.

Efficient transport systems support economic growth by improving reliability and reducing delays. As Ghana’s cities expand, these efficiencies become even more critical.

Why the current system persists

Despite these challenges, taxis and trotros continue to dominate for good reason.

They are flexible, adaptable and responsive to demand. Routes can change quickly, and services can reach areas that formal systems often overlook. The relatively low cost of entry also allows many individuals to participate in the sector.

This flexibility has made the system resilient. But it has also limited large-scale coordination.

The case for high-occupancy transport

Improving urban mobility is not just about increasing the number of vehicles, it is about moving more people with fewer vehicles.

High-occupancy transport systems, particularly Bus Rapid Transit (BRT), a system that uses larger buses operating along dedicated corridors, carry more passengers per trip. A single high-capacity bus can replace multiple taxis or minibuses.

This does not mean eliminating existing transport modes. Taxis and trotros can play a complementary role as feeder services, connecting passengers to main transit routes. This integrated approach combines flexibility with efficiency.

Ghana has already made attempts to introduce BRT systems. But partial implementation has limited their impact. For such systems to succeed, they require dedicated lanes, consistent policy support, and long-term investment.

A critical moment for Ghana’s cities

Urbanisation in Ghana is accelerating. As more people move into cities, demand for transport will continue to rise.

If current trends continue, the number of low-capacity vehicles will increase further, worsening congestion and environmental pressures. Over time, this could reduce the overall effectiveness of urban transport systems.

Ghana now faces a choice: continue expanding a vehicle-intensive system, or move towards higher-capacity models that prioritise efficiency and sustainability.

What needs to change

Addressing these challenges requires coordinated policy action.

Transport planning must move beyond reactive, market-driven growth, towards long-term system design. This includes integrating informal transport operators into structured frameworks while investing in infrastructure that supports high-capacity movement.

In my view, priorities should include:

• full implementation of Bus Rapid Transit systems with dedicated lanes

• investment in high-capacity buses and supporting infrastructure

• integration of informal operators into formal planning systems

• gradual reduction of low-occupancy vehicles along major corridors

• stronger institutional coordination and long-term planning.

These steps can help create a more flexible and efficient, balanced system.

The future of Ghana’s cities will depend on a simple shift where more people, not more vehicles, are moved.

– Ghana’s transport system is chaotic: how it can move more people with fewer vehicles – research
– https://theconversation.com/ghanas-transport-system-is-chaotic-how-it-can-move-more-people-with-fewer-vehicles-research-278810

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Josef Hanekom, Clinical Veterinarian and Lecturer, University of Pretoria

Dogs can be very aggressive towards one another, as many people will have witnessed in public places. But in South Africa aggression between dogs occurs more often in people’s homes.

We, a group of South African veterinary scientists including epidemiologists and a behaviourist at the Faculty of Veterinary Science, University of Pretoria, set out to understand the drivers of dog-on-dog aggression in dog bite patients. One of the reasons for doing this is that international studies rarely represent African settings, yet dog-keeping practices profoundly influence behaviour.

In South Africa, for example, dog ownership is driven by safety concerns and a guard against crime. Typically owners keep multiple dogs, select more aggressive dog breeds and combine large breeds for protection with smaller “alert” dogs meant to raise the alarm.

In a recent paper we examined detailed owner surveys from dogs presented to the veterinary hospital with bite wounds. We have also been drilling down into data based on more than 3,000 dogs that had been treated for dog bite wounds between 2013 and 2024 at the Onderstepoort Veterinary Academic Hospital. We analysed dog fight descriptions and household demographics, looking at the sex, age, breed and sterilisation status of dogs.

Our aim was to provide solid evidence-based and locally relevant prevention strategies to reduce inter-dog aggression, and to identify some risk amelioration strategies for South Africa.

We found that the biggest drivers of dog-on-dog aggression were overcrowded homes, and mismatched dog groups in terms of sex, sterilisation status and size. And that, by and large, dogs had minimal training and early socialisation and were given limited exercise outside the household.

Together, these factors create a household “pressure cooker” for inter-dog conflict.

Unfortunately, once fighting between household dogs occurs, this behaviour usually escalates. It’s often necessary to permanently supervise or separate fighting dogs.

This makes identifying prevention strategies all the more important, as once fighting occurs between two household dogs it is very difficult to curb.

Our findings highlight the importance of selecting compatible dogs, managing home environments and supporting owners with practical, evidence-based advice. Based on our findings we make seven recommendations that could help reduce dog-on-dog violence. These include limiting the number of dogs in a home to two or three, castrating male dogs, making sure there’s a mix of males and females, and not mixing small and large breeds.

What we found

Our research found extensive damage to the dogs that had been bitten:

• 4% had chest or abdominal cavity penetration

• 12% suffered fractures

• 6% resulted in death or euthanasia.

Beyond the welfare concerns for the dogs, this conflict also affected humans in considerable ways. Owners were injured while breaking up the fight in 3.2% of fights. Wounds to the face and hands were reported.

We found that households where fighting occurred owned more dogs (4.1 dogs compared to 3.4 dogs) and had more than one intact male dog.

When we examined patterns in fighting pairs, we identified clear trends: 71% of fights were between dogs of the same sex; 53% occurred between dogs with the same sterilisation status. Conversely, fighting was less common between male and female dogs (29%). The most common pairs were two intact males (25%) or two spayed females (15%).

Intact males were significantly over-represented in fights (38% of fighters vs 12.7% for castrated males). We did not establish causality, but the association is strong.

Female spayed dogs were slightly over-represented: 28% of fighting dogs vs 22% for female intact dogs. Fighting was frequent (12% of reports) when one household dog was in oestrus (on heat).

Fights were more common in dogs older than three years when hierarchy challenges arose. Most injured dogs were small breeds attacked by larger dogs.

Several breeds were over-represented in fighting households. These included boerboels, German shepherd dogs and pitbull terriers. Jack Russell terriers and miniature pinschers were over-represented in dog bite wound patients.

Breeds such as dachshunds, labrador retrievers, miniature schnauzers and toy poodles were less represented in fighting households.

The differences between South Africa and Europe

In Europe, fights occur mostly in public spaces between non-household dogs. Research has been done this on this in the UK, Germany and Czech Republic.

But in South Africa, household dynamics themselves are the central risk factor. In our study 85% of the dog bite wound cases happened at the owner’s home, and 68% involved dogs living in the same household.

Fighting often happened when a dog escaped from the yard or entered another dog’s property.

In several countries like the UK and Germany, leash laws were introducted to reduce dog attacks and fighting. But in our study population this would have a minimal effect on fighting between dogs at this occurs mostly at home.

Other clear differences to previous western studies were that most households in our survey kept 3.4 dogs. In many European studies there were usually fewer than two.

This shows that South African households face unique pressures that shape dog behaviour. Local evidence is essential to prevent fights and improve welfare.

What can owners do?

Keep no more than three dogs in a household. More dogs, more competition = more fighting.

Secondly, castrate all male dogs.

Third, avoid keeping dogs of only one sex. Fighting between same sex pairs was more common.

Fourth, avoid keeping large breed dogs with small breed dogs. Injuries were more common when small breed dogs were bitten by larger breed dogs.

Fifth, avoid keeping boerboels, German shepherds and pitbull terriers in multi-dog households. These breeds were more common in fighting households.

Sixth, Jack Russell terriers and miniature pinschers should be limited to low risk households without large breed dogs. These two breeds were over-represented in dog bite wound patients.

Seventh, maintain dog proof-fencing and control dogs during gate opening and closing. Fighting was often reported when dogs escaped their yard or entered another property.

– South African study reveals most dog fights happen at home – and how best to prevent it
– https://theconversation.com/south-african-study-reveals-most-dog-fights-happen-at-home-and-how-best-to-prevent-it-281447

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Elena Moore, Professor of Sociology, University of Cape Town

Botswana’s economy is projected to contract by 0.4% in 2026, driven largely by a slowdown in the diamond sector. Diamonds account for a third of fiscal revenues and a quarter of GDP. This means the government has less money to spend, even before making any policy choices.

At the same time, the government has set about reducing debt as a share of GDP by cutting expenditure to stabilise the economy. This combination is forcing difficult decisions about public spending.

A key one is investment in social protection for older people. Over the past two decades, the number of older persons aged 60+ has doubled to about 279,111 people (roughly 8% of the population). In coming decades, that number is set to rise even more sharply. While this reflects important gains in life expectancy, it also presents a policy challenge: how to support an ageing population in a context of tightening public finances.

We have between us expertise in long term care systems, public financing and budget analysis. Our recent study sought to tackle this question by examining how the Botswana government has funded elder care over the last 20 years.

We also obtained government data to examine how state spending on older people has evolved over time under various social protection measures. These included the old age pension, destitute programme, disability allowance and war veteran’s allowance, as well as care provision through the home-based care programme.

---

Read more: Botswana’s hike of old age pensions hasn’t fixed the problem of who cares for the elderly – new study

---

Our final report looks at how spending in 2005 compares to spending in 2024-2025, adjusted for inflation to reflect real changes in today’s value, and how these trends correspond with the growth of the older person population.

The key insight of the new report is that while Botswana has significantly expanded its old age pension system, investment in care services for older people has not kept pace.

---

Read more: Botswana’s hike of old age pensions hasn’t fixed the problem of who cares for the elderly – new study

---

The result is a system that provides income support but leaves many without the care they need and an underinvestment in the care economy in Botswana.

A pension success story: at a cost?

Botswana’s old age pension has long been one of the country’s most important social protection programmes. It is universal, meaning all citizens above a certain age qualify, and it has achieved broad reach across both urban and rural areas.

In 2025, the government made two major changes: it lowered the eligibility age from 65 to 60 and increased the monthly benefit.

These reforms have been widely welcomed. For many older people, the pension provides a crucial lifeline, helping to cover food, transport and other basic needs. In a country without unemployment benefits, it often supports entire households, not just individuals.

But this success comes with trade-offs.

The rapid expansion of the pension has absorbed a growing share of the broader social protection budget. This has left less room for other forms of public support, particularly those related to care.

A hidden crisis of care

Ageing is not just about income, it is also about health, disability and the need for care. As people live longer, they are more likely to experience chronic illnesses and multiple health conditions at once. This often leads to increased levels of disability and dependence.

Yet Botswana’s spending patterns suggest that these realities are not being fully addressed.

Pension coverage has expanded. But access to other support programmes has stagnated or even declined. The proportion of older persons receiving the destitute allowance has fallen significantly over the past decade, and disability support reaches only a small fraction of those who need it. While there has been an increase in total spending, there has not been an increase in total spending in real terms per person.

At the same time, spending on community home-based care, a key service that supports older persons in their homes, has decreased in real terms. This is happening despite clear evidence that demand for such services is rising.

Families under pressure

Care for older people in Botswana has traditionally been provided by families. This model is under increasing strain. A previous report on caregiving indicated how the long-term impact of HIV/Aids, combined with migration and rising female employment, has reduced the availability of family caregivers.

Moreover, between 2012 and 2023, female labour force participation increased from 54.9% to 63.4%, meaning fewer women are available to provide full-time care at home.

At the same time, many households face significant economic and infrastructural challenges. Older-people households are often large and multigenerational, yet resources are limited. Nearly half report experiencing food insecurity, and many lack access to basic services such as piped water and sanitation.

In a few isolated cases there are “voluntary” carers supporting older persons. But serious questions remain about their long-term sustainability.

In rural areas, where most older persons live, these challenges are even more pronounced.

Poverty persists despite pensions

Poverty among older people remains a serious concern. Around 11.9% live in extreme poverty, and they are more likely to be poor than any other age group. One reason is that the pension is often stretched across entire households.

At the same time, access to additional assistance is limited. Programmes such as the destitute allowance and disability grant often rely on discretionary assessments by social workers. Many older persons report that these programmes are difficult to access or simply unavailable.

This points to a broader issue: Botswana’s social protection system for older people is becoming increasingly narrow, centred on a single programme while other forms of support fall away.

These challenges are unfolding in a context of fiscal austerity. As the government seeks to reduce deficits and stabilise the economy, public spending is under pressure. But cuts to social services come with risks. Botswana is already one of the most unequal countries in the world. Reductions in social protection and care services are likely to exacerbate these inequalities.

Public services are also under strain. The country faces shortages of healthcare workers and infrastructure. In this context, reducing investment in care could have long-term consequences for both social and economic development.

Rethinking social protection

The current moment calls for a shift in how social protection is understood. Rather than focusing narrowly on pensions, policymakers need to take a broader view, one that includes care as a central component. Investing in care services is not just about meeting immediate needs. It can also create jobs, support households, and contribute to economic growth. Community-based care programmes, disability support, and partnerships with local organisations all offer pathways to strengthen the system.

Across Botswana, community initiatives are already stepping in to fill the gaps. But without stronger public support, these efforts cannot meet the scale of need.

What’s needed is a more balanced approach to spending priorities, one that protects income security while also investing in the public services that enable people to age with dignity.

– Pensions for Botswana’s elderly are growing, but care services are lacking – study tracks 20 years
– https://theconversation.com/pensions-for-botswanas-elderly-are-growing-but-care-services-are-lacking-study-tracks-20-years-281644

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Frank Gerits, Research Fellow at the University of the Free State, South Africa and Assistant Professor in the History of International Relations, Utrecht University

The 2026 Africa-France summit in Nairobi on May 11-12 is the first to be held in an African country that is not a former French colony. It is also the first to be held since the dramatic collapse of relations between France and a number of west African countries – notably Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger.

The 2026 summit can be understood as the latest example of President Emmanuel Macron’s new Africa doctrine, which he laid out in Burkina Faso in 2017. The doctrine’s three notable messages were:

• an apology for colonial wrongs

• a neoliberal small-business approach to assistance programmes

• the French resolve to develop new alliances outside French Africa.

In keeping with the new doctrine, the French president hesitantly apologised in 2021 for some aspects of French colonial policy in Algeria. These include the torture and assassination of the Algerian nationalist hero Ali Boumendjel.

But mostly, Macron has looked to strengthen the position of Paris as old alliances were becoming weaker.

---

Read more: France in Africa: why Macron’s policies increased distrust and anger

---

He has consciously invested time and effort beyond French west Africa. The official visit to Guinea-Bissau, a former Portuguese colony, is a case in point.

Right after his election in 2017, France’s development aid agency (AFD) and the Tony Elumelu Foundation signed an agreement in Nigeria to empower a new generation of business leaders. Tony Elumelu Foundation is a Lagos-based non-profit that promotes youth entrepreneurship across Africa.

Macron then promoted entrepreneurship during the New France-Africa Summit in 2021. He sought to inspire the youth of Africa to innovate and set up businesses.

This year’s conference is held under the banner: “Africa Forward: Partnerships between Africa and France for innovation and growth”. The business start-up vibe is no coincidence.

Kenya has also stressed the groundbreaking nature of the meeting for its focus on Africa as a major partner for Europe. Europe is looking for new allies in the midst of a war in Ukraine; and the US is unreliable, with Donald Trump imposing tariffs and questioning the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation.

As a historian of global north-global south relations, I see the meeting less as groundbreaking, and more as a continuation of an older, mutually beneficial relationship between Kenya and France.

Kenya hopes its relationship with France will elevate its influence across Africa, allowing it to rival the diplomatic weight of South Africa, which hosted the G20 summit in November 2025.

By transcending the classic divide between French and British Africa, Nairobi can present itself as a continental leader and as a diplomacy city.

History of the relationship between France and Kenya

The economic and diplomatic relationship goes back to the 1960s and 1970s. Back in September 1970 France sent a little-known legal expert called Jaques Mollet to advise the Kenyan Ministry of Industry and Commerce on the newly-formed East African Community.

France also sought cooperation with institutions of the East African Community such as the East African Development Bank. By becoming a close partner of a newly established regional economic bloc in Africa, in which Nairobi played a pivotal role, the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs sought to weaken the British influence of Africa while strengthening its own position within the European Economic Community, now the EU.

Paris somewhat cynically justified its meddling as a way to strengthen continental unity since a French and a British sphere of influence in Africa would lead to unnecessary internal competition between the Commonwealth countries in Africa and Françafrique.

Kenya sought to strengthen its trade relations with France and the EEC in the 1960s. This was partly an attempt to become more independent of the Commonwealth. When negotiating with the EEC in 1963, an east African delegation that included Kenya’s Minister of Labour Tom Mboya stressed that maintaining the East African Common Market was key – not the Commonwealth.

Ruto and Macron’s shared understanding

The similarities between Kenya’s President William Ruto and Macron further strengthen this historical bond between Kenya and France. They share the same diplomatic goals. They are both focusing on climate change funding and security, and they share a preference for neoliberal privatisation as a mode for governance at home and abroad.

Ruto’s election campaign in 2022 touted the “hustler nation” – a focus on enabling small businesses. Macron has acted as a businessman-diplomat abroad, pushing small businesses as a solution for underdevelopment.

It’s no accident therefore that the 2026 summit will host a business forum and talks will focus on the potential benefits of artificial intelligence. AI, climate initiatives and weapons manufacturing, as well as the small-business ventures that have emerged through these priorities, are areas of cooperation and investment between African countries and the former colonial powers. Politicians like to flaunt this.

Part of the reason is that these are yet unproven ventures with no long history of unequal exchange between the two sides. They are natural common ground for two sides seeking a renewed relationship that is less burdened by the dark history of colonial oppression.

Yet France and Kenya’s agreement about the need to address security, climate change and artificial intelligence obscures the fact that both countries often find themselves on opposing sides of these issues.

As the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has shown, African and European leaders do not necessarily share the same analysis of the global security situation. European countries assumed they would get complete support from African countries but only 28 out of 54 African countries voted in favour of a United Nations resolution that condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Kenya abstained.

On issues like climate change and artificial intelligence, France and Kenya again agree on the broad principle that these issues require urgent action, but disagree on the form the action should take.

For instance, climate change has hit Kenya hard. Extended droughts require genuine climate action. At the same time, France and the EU have been talking about loosening climate regulations to address the energy crisis caused by the US war on Iran. This includes easing emission regulations for cars.

The same problem presents itself in relation to the AI economy, which is being championed by France. It is cheap labourers in Kenya that have been doing much of the legwork to keep AI applications going. Large language models and other applications need to be trained and monitored by humans and they are often trained in Kenya’s so-called “AI sweat shops”. Kenyans are doing much of the data labelling and content moderation AI work.

Long term relationship?

In essence, the summit illustrates how climate finance, security and AI are being used to bolster commercial interests in both Africa and France, a strategic attempt to redefine a relationship long shadowed by colonialism.

However, the future of this entrepreneur-led approach remains uncertain. Its success hinges on whether France and Kenya can ensure that the wealth generated by these emerging sectors is distributed broadly, or if it will merely enrich a small circle of tech elites.

– Why Nairobi Africa-France summit bears the hallmarks of Macron and Ruto priorities
– https://theconversation.com/why-nairobi-africa-france-summit-bears-the-hallmarks-of-macron-and-ruto-priorities-282414

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Kenneth Nsah Mala, Expert in Environmental Humanities, Sustainability Science, Foresight and Futures Studies, University of Cologne

In the grasslands and highlands of western Cameroon, some animals are believed to be sacred. Within the region’s indigenous kingdoms (fondoms), many of these animals are also considered to be royal. They include wild cats (like cheetahs, leopards, lions, tigers), buffaloes, elephants, porcupines, cowries (sea snails), and a brightly coloured bird called the Bannerman’s turaco.

These species carry deep cultural and spiritual significance. They are, for example, often used to decorate royals (kings, queens and queen mothers) or to award royal distinctions to deserving individuals. Their body parts can be used to make crowns, bedding, footstools, bangles or necklaces for royalty. Red feathers from the Bannerman’s turaco are used to distinguish warriors and hunters.

Here, indigenous cultural practices can both sustain and decimate biodiversity. The names of some of these animals, especially wild cats, are used as praise names for kings. But custom dictates that when these animals are found, they must be killed and taken to the palace as a tribute.

Most are either locally extinct or critically endangered. Except for cowries and porcupines, all these animals are included on the red list of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature.

Biodiversity loss caused by humans is accelerating at alarming rates around the world. This includes biodiversity hotspots like the Congo Basin in central Africa, which Cameroon is part of. Thousands of species have been identified in the basin, 30% of which are endemic (native).

---

Read more: Nuer people have a sacred connection to birds – it can guide conservation in Ethiopia and South Sudan

---

I am a scholar who works across disciplines. These include the arts, literature and cultural studies; environmental humanities; sustainability science; anticipatory governance and future generations; strategic foresight and futures studies.

In a recent study, I explored how literary creativity combined with foresight workshops might help change how people view these animals. Could they offer more hopeful futures for these unique species?

The role of literature

Literary texts like plays, poems and novels offer insights into dealing with climate and ecological challenges in the Congo Basin. (Even in the case of less popular but highly important species such as insects.)

This is the case in many works by anglophone Cameroonian authors, like Athanasius Nsahlai, Kenjo Jumbam, J.K. Bannavti, and John Nkengasong.

---

Read more: ‘A healthy earth may be ugly’: How literary art can help us value insect conservation

---

Their stories have the potential to warn against the destruction of royal and sacred animals. They can also help shape new visions for the future of biodiversity conservation.

I draw on postcolonial ecocriticism (the relationship between literature, culture, the environment and history) and narrative foresight (what stories can reveal about the future) in my study. I analyse how these books engage with royal and sacred animals in ways that challenge environmentally unfriendly cultural practices, and how they propose new forms of relations between humans and other animals.

Jumbam’s novella, Lukong and the Leopard, for instance, tells the story of a young man called Lukong. The son of an outcast from the Nso kingdom, he helps capture a lion. Surprisingly the king demands it be brought to his palace alive. Just as Lukong is to be decorated by the king, his father sneaks in. Fearing for his son’s life, he sets the lion free.

In a sense, the story challenges the old cultural practice of killing royal animals. It invites readers to change how they see and relate with these animals in order to protect them.

Workshops

Stories like this can then be taken into foresight workshop sessions. Narrative foresight meets group participation to create what is called participatory foresight. Participants and stakeholders from diverse backgrounds are brought together to explore future scenarios, the challenges that shape them and what can drive change.

As part of my research, I organised a day of participatory foresight workshops on #CongoBasinFutures and #RoyalAnimalsFutures in Yaoundé, Cameroon.

Over 30 participants across a range of ages, genders and interests were brought together. They included teachers, researchers, environmentalists, farmers, nurses, writers, filmmakers, musicians, journalists, students, civil society workers, policymakers, and indigenous kings (fons).

Using foresight tools, participants were asked to discuss motivations as well as historical barriers while envisioning more hopeful futures for royal and sacred animals. The workshops were designed to include literary narratives on the plight of these animals.

They drew on current trends and signals of change, like climate change, biodiversity loss and indigenous cultural practices. They imagined new futures and then collectively proposed several policy interventions that could be practical solutions.

Shaping better policies

Cameroon does have environmental laws aimed at protecting biodiversity, but they are not effectively implemented. My study – and our workshop – seeks to complement these laws and contribute to their effective use in practice. Ideas coming out of the workshop include:

• Creative arts and education should be used to help raise awareness about protecting royal animals and biodiversity. This could include programmes like our workshop, creative competitions and updating educational curricula.

• Instead of decorating those who kill, local hunters should be rewarded when they spot and report the presence of royal animals for monitoring and preservation. The use of artificial animal parts for traditional ceremonies should be encouraged.

• Policy should encourage research into the controlled breeding of endangered royal and sacred animals and the promotion of ecotourism around these animals. Special parks and reserves could combine arts and royal animals to attract tourists. Revenue could improve livelihoods, sustain cultures, and promote environmental conservation.

• Environmental regulation should be strengthened through collaboration with all stakeholders, including indigenous authorities and local communities. Hunting of certain animals could be regulated. Hunting seasons and quotas for certain species could be in place. Indigenous leaders and communities could be engaged to adapt and modernise cultural practices in an era of environmental collapse.

---

Read more: Literature from the Congo Basin offers ways to address the climate crisis

---

But we must move from recommendations into action. Otherwise, ideas from studies like this will remain good on paper only, like most environmental laws in Cameroon. If so, royal animals and other species will continue to be threatened by extinction.

– Cameroon’s sacred and royal animals: could literature and futures thinking help save them?
– https://theconversation.com/cameroons-sacred-and-royal-animals-could-literature-and-futures-thinking-help-save-them-281160

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Santiago Zuluaga Castañeda, JdlC Researcher, Departamento de Ecología Evolutiva, Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales (MNCN-CSIC)

Birds of prey and vultures (raptors) play a vital role in ecosystems, both as top predators and key scavengers. However, compared to many other bird species, raptor populations are declining faster. This is because they need large areas to live in, have low population densities, and reproduce slowly. For these reasons they are vulnerable to human impacts like farming with pesticides, electrocution, collision with wind turbines, or poaching.

In many cases, by the time scientists and conservationists fully understand how bad the declines are, it may be too late to act. Thus, having good population monitoring is vital to act as an early warning system of declines. Many countries in the global south host important populations of raptors but lack effective monitoring programmes.

Africa is an important continent for raptor diversity. Several studies across Africa have used road counts (counting birds from repeated transects across routes) to monitor how raptor populations have changed over time. A recent study went one step further, combining trends from these different surveys from across Africa to better understand these changes at a pan-African scale. Unfortunately, no data from South Africa were available to be incorporated into this analysis.

In our recent study we took advantage of data that was collected by one dedicated fieldworker, Ronelle Visagie, who drove nearly 400,000 km (the distance from Earth to the moon) across the central area of South Africa (see map) between 2009 and 2025, while she worked for the Birds of Prey Programme of the Endangered Wildlife Trust.

During these 16 years, Ronelle counted all the raptors and large birds that she saw on these work trips. Comparing how the rate of these observations (numbers of individuals per 100km driven) changed over time allowed us to explore species population trends. We had enough data to examine trends for 18 raptors and eight other large bird species over this period. Unfortunately, we did not find a good news story.

These road counts revealed that 50% of the species (13 out of 26) declined significantly, while only three species (12%) showed significant increases. The remaining ten species (38%) showed no significant trends (see Figure 2).

The declining trends raise serious concerns about the conservation status of several species in a region known to host important raptor populations. Thus, urgent conservation actions are needed, especially for species declining by more than 50%. Given that several of these species are not currently listed as threatened either globally or regionally, their conservation status may need to be reassessed.

Trends in raptor populations

According to our results, 42% of the assessed species declined by more than 50% in the last 16 years.

Notable declines included all of the three migratory species assessed (lesser kestrel, amur falcon and steppe buzzard). These trends match other studies from their breeding grounds in the northern hemisphere, which also suggested declines. Protecting migratory species is especially challenging because action may be needed in breeding areas, non-breeding areas, and along migration routes, where the threats they face may differ.

We also found declines of several resident raptors, including jackal buzzard, Verreaux’s eagle and secretarybird. Populations of these species declined by over 50% in our study region.

In contrast, populations of white-necked raven, greater kestrels, and white-backed vulture increased. The latter is a critically endangered species, but seems to be increasing within our study area.

---

Read more: Nigeria’s Hadejia wetlands are a vital stopover for migrating birds: new survey records species found in the park

---

Some of the trends we detected were similar to a recent study that explored raptor population trends from across Africa using similar approaches to our study. For example, our findings of large declines for secretarybird and lesser kestrel were very similar to those reported in Kenya and Botswana. Additionally, similar population changes for secretarybird were detected during winter (but not summer) using road counts in the Nama Karoo (a major part of our study area) during the period just before our study (a 61% decline between the late 1980s and early 2010s). This suggests that the decline detected earlier may have continued into the mid-2020s.

We compared the direction of trends (whether species numbers were going up or down) from our road counts and the Southern African Bird Atlas Project (SABAP2). But only about half of the trends agreed between the two methods (road counts and the bird atlas). Species with consistent trends between the methods included amur falcon and lesser kestrel – both showing declines – and greater kestrel and white-backed vulture – both showing increases. Species with inconsistent trends all showed decreases according to our road counts but increases according to the bird atlas project. These included Ludwig’s bustard, blue crane, secretarybird, black-winged kite, and southern pale chanting goshawk.

If we assume that our road counts trends are reliable, these findings suggest that although the bird atlas project data can provide valuable information on the changes in distribution of birds, atlas data may be less well suited to capture changes in abundance at large spatial scales and across multiple species.

Across Africa, declines in birds of prey are often linked to human population growth, agricultural expansion and climate change. In our study area, there have been no major recent changes in land use or population density, but more subtle or long-term human impacts may be driving these changes.

Conflicts between people and raptors, including illegal killings, could play a role. Climate change and infrastructure like power lines and wind farms are adding further pressure by fragmenting aerial habitat and affecting survival and reproduction.

---

Read more: Finding space for both wind farms and eagles in South Africa

---

Trends in human populations

Human populations in Africa are expected to grow significantly over the next three decades, which will increase pressure on biodiversity.

Given the projected human population growth in Africa (79%), and a corresponding rise in demand for resources and energy, threats to vulnerable bird species are likely to get worse.

It is therefore essential that we have reliable tools to monitor species trends and better understand the impacts of these pressures.

This is crucial for understanding the current biodiversity crisis and preventing severe wildlife loss.

Ronelle Visagie and Gareth Tate of the Endangered Wildlife Trust contributed to this research.

– Birds of prey in South Africa are in trouble – a study analyses data from 16 years of road counts
– https://theconversation.com/birds-of-prey-in-south-africa-are-in-trouble-a-study-analyses-data-from-16-years-of-road-counts-281908

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Steven Gordon, Chief Research Specialist., Human Sciences Research Council

Anti-immigrant marches in several major South African cities (such as Tshwane and Johannesburg) in early May 2026 once again led to questions being asked about xenophobia in post-apartheid South Africa.

In the wake of the protests President Cyril Ramaphosa called on South Africans to embrace solidarity with their African neighbours. For their part, foreign governments lodged their protests while police sought to curtail violence.

The tension in the country was palpable.

Are the recent outbreaks of anti-immigrant activism a harbinger of a wider uptick in anti-migrant sentiment amongst South Africans? Recent public opinion data from the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC) suggests that this might be the case.

The HSRC’s South African Social Attitudes Survey is an important source of information on what ordinary South Africans think about international migration. The survey series consists of nationally representative, repeated cross-sectional surveys that have been conducted annually by the HSRC since 2003.

The latest data, from the 2025 survey, show that South Africans are more hostile towards immigrants than at any other time before since the survey began in 2003. An important dimension of the change has been an attitudinal shift and hardening of attitudes towards migrants among poorer and working-class adults. In addition, the recent growth of anti-immigrant sentiment has been geographically concentrated in four provinces: Mpumalanga, Gauteng, Limpopo and KwaZulu-Natal.

---

Read more: What research reveals about drivers of anti-immigrant hate crime in South Africa

---

The rise in anti-immigrant sentiment is particularly concerning given that the country is due to hold local government elections on 4 November 2026. Aspirant political parties, in an attempt to maintain or gain power, may seek to exploit anti-immigrant sentiment for their own ends. In this way elections can provide a potential accelerant for xenophobia.

Growing hostility may even provoke xenophobic violence in a country that has a long history of collective anti-immigrant hate crime. and is home to more than two million international migrants.

Declining Hospitality

South African Social Attitudes Survey has included the following in its questionnaire since 2003:

Please indicate which of the following statements applies to you? I generally welcome to South Africa… (i) All immigrants; (ii) Some immigrants; (iii) No immigrants; and (iv) Uncertain.

In 2003 about a third (34%) of the South African adult population said that they would welcome all immigrants. The remainder indicated that they would accept either none (32%) or some (35%).

The proportion of the public that would be prepared to welcome foreigners tended to fluctuate within a narrow band over the 2003-2017 period.

But around the time of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, the research data began to show an upswing in anti-immigrant sentiment.

---

Read more: Xenophobia is on the rise in South Africa: scholars weigh in on the migrant question

---

About a quarter (26%) of those surveyed said that they would welcome all immigrants during the 2021 survey round. This was similar to figures in the mid-2010s.

But the share that held this hospitable attitude fell in subsequent survey rounds. In 2025 15% of adults said that they would welcome all foreigners.

Conversely, the proportion of the public adopting a hostile position (in other words ‘welcome no immigrants’) increased from 30% in 2021 to 42% in 2025.

Geography and class

The provinces with the highest growth in anti-immigrant sentiment – Mpumalanga, Gauteng, Limpopo and KwaZulu-Natal – are ones through which most immigrants travel and often settle.

The situation has become particularly delicate in KwaZulu-Natal. The share of adults in the province who said that they would welcome no immigrants grew from 23% in 2021 to 45% in 2023 and then again to 60% in 2025.

The upsurge in hostility in KwaZulu-Natal could be linked to growing popular anger against the current economic and political status quo. A staggering 88% of provincial residents are unhappy with present economic conditions, and an equal proportion expect conditions to worsen over the next five years.

The notable attitudinal shift among poor people is also concerning.

South Africa is a highly unequal nation characterised by stark economic divisions. Most citizens can be found on the wrong side of these divides and could be classified as economically disadvantaged.

Historically, as research has shown, anti-immigrant sentiment in the country tended to cut across class divisions. But in the years following the COVID-19 pandemic, something changed.

Before the pandemic, South African Social Attitudes Survey data showed a linear relationship between economic disadvantage and anti-immigrant sentiment. In the years following the pandemic, however, a clear pattern emerged. As the lockdowns ended and the post-pandemic recovery began, most socioeconomic groups in South Africa became more and more hostile towards immigrants. But antipathy grew at a much more aggressive rate for the low and lower middle socioeconomic groups.

During the 2025 survey round, adults in these groups were much more hostile towards foreigners than those in the upper middle and high socio-economic groups.

The drivers

What could have caused the economically disadvantaged to become more antagonistic towards immigrants over the last five years or so?

It could be argued that the poor have become more likely to scapegoat foreigners for the failures and inequalities of the post-pandemic economic recovery. Poor people have been badly affected by a cost of living crisis and persistent deindustrialisation. They need someone to blame and foreigners have long provided a handy scapegoat.

The South African economy has struggled in the last few years, dealing with doggedly high unemployment. The country also has notoriously high crime rates. Such problems, as experts have argued again and again, cannot be directly laid at the feet of immigrants living in the country. But it would appear that they are getting blamed anyway.

What should be done?

The South African government has a National Action Plan to Combat Racism, Racial Discrimination, Xenophobia and Related Intolerance.

Implemented in March 2019, one of its goals was to reduce public hostility towards migrants. Clearly, whether because of a lack of resources or government coordination, the plan has not succeeded.

The country needs to reinvigorate it and its associated processes. What’s needed is political, civic and community leaders to address legitimate socio-economic grievances without allowing immigrants to become scapegoats for deeper structural failures in society.

Efforts to strengthen social cohesion, improve economic inclusion, enhance public trust in governance and promote responsible political leadership are also crucial.

Well-provisioned and effective anti-xenophobia strategies are urgently required to address the worsening situation. The alternative is to allow hatred to flourish.

– South Africans are far less tolerant of migrants than before – hotspots, drivers and solutions
– https://theconversation.com/south-africans-are-far-less-tolerant-of-migrants-than-before-hotspots-drivers-and-solutions-282389