Category: The Conversation

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Joshua Kumbani, Postdoctoral fellow, University of Tübingen

Rock paintings are found throughout Zimbabwe. They were made during the last 10,000 years by hunter gatherer groups and later by farming communities.

These came to the attention of the ERC Artsoundscapes project, based in Spain, in 2021. The project brings together experts in archaeology, ethnography, psychology and acoustic engineering to explore how humans understood sound in prehistoric times. Our team has studied some of the rock art of South Africa in which dance scenes are depicted, and we have begun work on documenting and analysing similar rock art in Zimbabwe.

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Read more: Dance scenes in South African rock art: a closer look at ritual, music and movement

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Zimbabwe’s rock paintings are concentrated in the country’s eastern provinces, which is where we’ve focused so far. More can be found in the Matobo World Heritage Cultural Landscape in Matabeleland South, which will be the focus of future study.

We have published an article describing dance scenes in this rock art and comparing them with information from ethnographic sources to understand what kinds of dances they depict. The ethnographic research was done by anthropologists and focused on hunter gatherer groups in the broader southern African region (Botswana and Namibia).

We found that all the kinds of dances that have been described in living cultures – dances for ritual, entertainment or special circumstances – are depicted in Zimbabwe’s rock art. But ritual is a central theme.

This points to the need to refine our classification of rock art scenes. We’ve been using features like the body posture of depicted figures to classify a scene as a dance. But ritual dances often involve going into a trance state – and this alters a person’s ability to control their body, move in synchrony with other people and follow “rules” of a dance. Therefore, it may be necessary to reconsider whether some rock art scenes in Zimbabwe, and in the whole of southern Africa, depict dances or not.

Here we will discuss some examples of the rock art in Zimbabwe and explain how we categorised them.

Analytical method

We reviewed published works by archaeology researchers such as the late Peter Garlake and university professor Ancila Nhamo. We also used online resources, including the British Museum online collection by rock art photographer and author David Coulson, which features rock art from Zimbabwe and other southern African countries.

Our inquiry aimed to determine whether all dances that have been recognised ethnographically, in living people, in Zimbabwe as well as in other countries of southern Africa, are also represented in Zimbabwe’s rock art.

We analysed the scenes by applying six attributes that have proved useful in studies in other parts of the world, such as the Middle East and the western Mediterranean. The attributes are divided into those related to the dancers themselves and those related to the type of dance. They are:

• dancers’ body posture (including bent figures, outstretched arms and flexed legs)

• items they hold, such as sticks, rattles, or headgear

• interaction between dancers

• evidence of synchrony

• direction of movement

• gender of the figures represented.

Dance scenes in Zimbabwe rock art

Using these attributes, we can say that a scene such as this one found at Lake Chivero is a dance because it has several men all wearing aprons, displaying the same body posture, and positioned in synchrony with outstretched arms.

Yet, in other scenes we encountered unexpected problems with the second group of attributes (type of dance). Those were designed to analyse dance scenes in other parts of the world with different belief systems. But they are not always valid when dancers engage in trance dances.

One example of this type of scene that does not follow the norm is found at a site called Chivhu. A series of therianthropes (figures with both human and animal features) were painted associated with a large snake bearing two animal heads. In the scene we analysed there, the interaction between dancers is irregular, their movements are not synchronised, and the direction of the dance is not homogeneous, as would be expected in a regular dance. But regular interaction, synchronisation and uniform direction are simply not possible when dancers are in an altered state of consciousness. So, this scene might not look like a dance but it probably is one, based on what we know from studies of living people in cultures associated with the makers of the rock art.

Other dances recognised ethnographically as being of ritual character are initiation dances. An example of a dancing scene which may indicate a boys’ initiation dance can be found at a rocky outcrop in Glen Norah, Harare. American anthropologist Lorna Marshall, who undertook fieldwork among the !Kung people of the Kalahari Desert in the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s, described how the !Kung boys from Nyae Nyae in Namibia in the 1950s sometimes bent their upper bodies into an almost right-angle posture while dancing. The dancers in the painted scene are accompanied by other men who are not participating in the dance. These kinds of initiation dances are not documented or practised in Zimbabwe, however. So although the painted scene looks like an initiation dance, it probably isn’t one.

Rock art may also depict eland dances, the girls’ initiation dance. For example, dancing scenes depicting only women that may be interpreted as eland dances are found in Chipinge and Mudadi in Zimbabwe’s Chivi district.

The Makonde dance from Mashonaland West, which features more than 30 performers, is not easy to interpret. It is not clear whether this represents a large dance scene or if the dancers can be divided into different groups. Some individuals are clapping, while others are dancing, which may indicate the presence of trance dancers (group labelled b). Additionally, there are female dancers with tufts on their legs and wearing back aprons (group labelled a). These could be dancing for entertainment, because in reality for an eland dance (a ritual) they would probably remove the aprons.

Categorising certain dances can be challenging, and some may have been performed purely for entertainment purposes. For example, there is a dancing scene at Charewa that depicts women, men, and possibly children participating. We propose that this could represent an entertainment dance or a dance in some particular circumstance where everyone joined in.

Other elements emerging from the analysis of the dance scenes found in Zimbabwean rock art include the presence of musical instruments and a variety of artefacts associated with the dancers. Hand rattles frequently appear in dancing scenes and have been recognised as the most depicted musical instruments in Zimbabwean rock art, as we’ve discussed in an article about musical instrument representations.

Dancers are sometimes depicted with dancing sticks or other accessories, not only rattles. For instance, some figures appear to be holding round discs that are difficult to identify at Chikupu.

Moreover, dancers may be adorned with beads, as observed at Charewa Panel 2, and often wear distinctive headgear, typically resembling antennae, which may symbolise feathers as described in ethnographic accounts.

It’s important to accurately identify and describe these scenes. Our analysis highlights the valuable information that can be gleaned from close examination of the depictions, as well as from the use of ethnohistorical sources related to dance.

– Rock art, dance and ritual: what we learned from paintings in Zimbabwe
– https://theconversation.com/rock-art-dance-and-ritual-what-we-learned-from-paintings-in-zimbabwe-279266

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Narcisse Martial Yèdji, Sociologue politiste et enseignant-chercheur, University d’Abomey-Calavi de Bénin

Romuald Wadagni won the 2026 presidential election in Benin with over 94% of the vote. Wadagni, 50, is a technocrat who became an influential finance minister under Patrice Talon from 2016 until his election.

The Beninese political system is a pluralist democracy organised around a presidential system, with regular elections and political alternation. It is also characterised by a strict institutional framework governing electoral competition, particularly since recent reforms.

The outcome raises questions about the current dynamics of Benin’s political system. How should the 2026 presidential results be interpreted in a context marked by reforms to the party system and the electoral framework? Political sociologist Narcisse M. Yèdji offers some insights.

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How do you interpret the 94% result?

With the current national political climate, the landslide victory raises several questions. At first glance, the results suggest very strong support for the presidential majority. Statistically, this means a very low dispersion of votes between the two competing duos: the winning ticket formed by Romuald Wadagni and Mariam Chabi Talata, and the one formed by Paul Hounkpè and Rock Judicaël Hounwanou. More broadly, such a scenario is typical of electoral contexts where the opposition plays only a formal role and has no real chance of winning.

That said, the enormous margin between the two main candidates may also reflect strong support for the winning pair, giving the impression of a broad consensus in their favour.

Clearly, recent changes introduced to the country’s party system and the electoral code have tilted the balance in favour of the ruling party. Such a victory was predictable. The margin, however, was not.

A comparison with the 2021 presidential election places the 2026 result in a broader perspective. The 2021 election was won by Patrice Talon with 86% of the vote. The race was slightly more open. It involved a larger number of candidates: three pairs in total.

The statements are not contradictory. In a context where the political offer is restricted, voters have several options: either to stay at home, or to cast a default vote. Therefore, the 94% may reflect strong popular support. Or, given the limited set of choices, it may reflect the option of a default vote. The 2026 landslide victory can thus be read as a reflection of growing electoral support for the incumbent administration.

The latest complete overhaul of the rules of political competition left voters without meaningful and credible alternatives, thereby increasing the likelihood of people voting by default.

However, what might appear to be a gradual consolidation of electoral support for the ruling party could, in fact, be the effect of these reforms. The endorsement system, in particular, has played a key role in shaping how votes are distributed. It is a system that requires any presidential candidate to obtain the formal support of a certain number of elected officials (members of parliament or mayors) in order to be eligible to run. The threshold, initially set at 10% (16 endorsements), was raised to 15% in 2024 (28 endorsements), making it harder for the main opposition party to enter the race, as it was unable to secure the required number of endorsements.

It is therefore misleading to view the presidential ticket’s success as mere coincidence. A more realistic reading points to a long-matured political project, executed with cold calculation by those in power.

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Read more: Présidentielle au Bénin : comment les réformes politiques sous Patrice Talon ont remodelé la compétition électorale

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There are two issues at stake. First, avoiding any risk of retaliation from a resentful successor. The long siege of more than 50 days imposed by security forces on former president Thomas Boni Yayi’s residence after the controversial 2019 legislative election lends weight to this argument. Second, to enable reforms and economic transformation projects to continue, while reducing political uncertainty.

In 2025, Talon had, in fact, hinted at his wish to pass the baton to a successor who would “not undo” his reform programme.

From this perspective, Wadagni’s success is no accident. It is the planned outcome of political system designed to ensure its own continuity.

How do you interpret the voter turnout?

A comparison with previous presidential elections highlights a mixed trend in voter turnout. The 2026 turnout was 63.57%. That is higher than 2021’s 50.17% turnout. However, civil society disputes that 2021 figure, claiming it was actually 26.47%. These turnout rates (for the 2021 and 2026 presidential runs) contrast sharply with recent legislative elections. Turnout was 27.12% in 2019; 38.66% in 2023; 36.74% in 2026.

This contrast reveals a hierarchy among elections. Presidental elections draw stronger turnout, even without real electoral options. For many citizens, electing the head of state is a central political moment.

However, the higher turnout for 2026 (63.57%) should not be interpreted as a revival of political interest. Voter participation has steadily declined since 2006. It averaged at 74.85% in 2006 and 84.82% in 2011.

There is another important reading from the 2026 presidential elections. The relatively high voter turnout of 63.57% happened at the same time as the electoral choices narrowed. In other words, turnout does not appear to be conditioned by the perception of effective pluralism in the electoral process.

Ultimately, these changes reflect how citizens relate to elections. Presidential votes still hold some appeal. Yet, the broader electoral trend remains one of growing abstention and mistrust.

This trend can clearly be linked to a limited belief in the effectiveness of the voting process. It may also stem from a narrower range of electoral choices. If a restricted political offer appears not to affect electoral participation, this does not imply that those who went to vote fully trust the electoral process.

It is entirely possible to be distrustful of the system while still voting, especially when abstention is not perceived as the best option.

Finally, it may be indicative of shifting social expectations regarding political representation.

What are the main challenges facing the new president?

Several challenges await the new president. The first is political legitimacy. Many see his term as a direct continuation of Talon’s rule. For them, Wadagni is his designated successor.

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Read more: Au Bénin, le bilan de Patrice Talon à l’épreuve des élections législatives

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From this perspective, the new president appears to be both heir and hostage. He inherits the previous administration’s achievements. But he also inherits its liabilities. This raises a central question: can he build an independent authority of his own?

The central challenge of his term, therefore, is to distance himself from this divisive political legacy. He must build an image as an independent president. Wadagni has stated that his predecessor would “step aside” if he wins. But, doubts remain about whether this promised distance will become reality.

On the institutional front, the new president inherits a fragile executive branch. Parliament owes full allegiance to Talon. The Senate could also limit his room for action.

From the first challenge stems the second: restoring trust between politics and people. The outgoing president will sit in the Senate and is likely to remain, for years to come, one of the country’s most influential political figures. Meeting this challenge will undoubtedly depend on how the public will perceive Talon’s influence on government affairs from within the Senate.

Restoring trust between the political sphere and the people means winning back voters who have walked away from electoral processes. This will require credible actions that must prove renewed approach to governance.

The legitimacy of the new president’s policies may depend on this effort.

Beyond that, the deepest challenge might be national reconciliation. Recent political dynamics such as the electoral reforms appear to have contributed to deepening divisions among Beninese citizens. To ensure long term stability, the new president will need to take credible actions to ease tensions and rebuild social cohesion.

For this to happen, strong actions are expected quickly after his inauguration, especially on highly sensitive issues:

• security issues in the northern border regions exposed to terrorist threats

• economic and social issues, including the cost of living, improving purchasing power, youth employment, and reducing wage inequalities

• political and institutional issues, including “political prisoners”, exiles, and those in similar situations; easing the tax burden; and rebuilding public trust in institutions.

Amid the profound political and institutional changes underway, Wadagni’s ability to meet all these expectations will shape his legitimacy. It will also determine the overall success of his seven-year term.

– Benin election: Wadagni’s landslide win raises questions about his legitimacy
– https://theconversation.com/benin-election-wadagnis-landslide-win-raises-questions-about-his-legitimacy-281005

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Andrew McKechnie, Professor of Zoology and South African Research Chair-holder, University of Pretoria

Humans are not the only species negatively affected by increasingly hot and humid conditions. Intense heatwaves sometimes kill large numbers of wild animals. Eastern Australia’s giant fruit bats, known as flying-foxes, provide possibly the most dramatic illustration. In late 2018, two days of extreme heat in the far north of Queensland wiped out one third of Australia’s population of spectacled flying-foxes. The species is now red-listed as endangered.

Bat biologists have identified high humidity as a major risk factor for these mass mortality events.

In late 2020, South Africa saw its first documented heat-related mass mortality event involving wild birds. Air temperatures in the typically humid Phongolo Nature Reserve in northern KwaZulu-Natal exceeded 45°C, about 10°C higher than average conditions. Staff in the reserve started seeing dead and dying birds. Most of the victims were songbirds, which are known to be more sensitive to extreme heat than many other groups of birds.

Of these, the worst-affected species was the blue waxbill, a charming little finch with a powder-blue face and belly that spends most of its time foraging for grass seeds in small flocks.

Blue waxbills made up nearly half the carcasses found by field rangers when they searched part of the reserve after the heat had passed.

The Phongolo mortality event added to the urgency of our research programme on the effects of climate change on Africa’s birds. The blue waxbills’ prominence among the victims identified them as a bellwether of the impacts of extreme heat on birds in the wetter south-eastern parts of the continent.

Since 2009, we have been leading a research team spanning the universities of Cape Town, Pretoria and several other local and overseas institutions. The over-arching goal of our research is understanding how climate change is affecting birds and other wildlife and developing methods to predict future effects.

Our expertise is mainly in behavioural ecology (Susie Cunningham) and evolutionary physiology (Andrew McKechnie). This combination has proven ideal for investigating how rising temperatures affect animals’ survival and reproduction.

Why humidity can be a killer

During hot weather, humans and other animals depend on evaporation to offload heat. Evaporation may take place by sweating (the major cooling mechanism for humans), through panting (your dog on a hot day) or other pathways. The process of changing liquid water (sweat or saliva) into water vapour uses heat, so it cools the source of the water (the body). But the air is like a sponge: when it’s already humid (wet), the air can’t hold much more water vapour.

These conditions impede evaporation and thus heat loss. On a 40°C day in a desert like the Kalahari or Sahara, evaporative cooling is efficient because the air is dry and sweat can evaporate as soon as it reaches the skin’s surface. At the same temperature on a humid day in the coastal tropics, however, sweat cannot evaporate and forms drops on the skin. This severely reduces rates of heat loss.

If body temperature increases more than a few degrees above normal levels, nervous system function is compromised, organ damage starts to occur and proteins begin denaturing. This breakdown of physiological functioning can rapidly lead to death.

The journey

In early 2022, just over a year after the waxbill event, our Masters student Nazley Liddle set out to examine the role high humidity had played in the deaths of the waxbills. She also aimed to predict areas where risks of mortality will increase in future.

Nazley investigated the waxbills’ capacity to regulate their body temperature over a range of air temperatures and humidity levels. Her results confirmed that high humidity severely compromises the birds’ ability to avoid dangerous hyperthermia (getting too hot).

For example, she found that blue waxbills can tolerate air temperature up to 48°C under dry conditions, whereas under humid conditions similar to those on the day of the Phongolo mortality event they are unable to maintain a safe body temperature if air temperature exceeds 45.7°C.

Nazley then modelled how the waxbills will fare under hotter, more humid future conditions. The modelling showed that likelihood of mass mortality events for waxbills (and other birds with similar physiology) will increase greatly in coming decades. This ranged across much of Kruger National Park, south-eastern Zimbabwe and large parts of southern and central Mozambique, including the ferociously hot Zambezi Valley.

Predicted risk of mortality becomes three to seven times higher when humidity is taken into account, compared to increasing temperature alone. Many of these areas will simply become too hot and humid during the wet season for the species to persist.

The blue waxbill study should set alarm bells ringing. Most of Earth’s 11,000 bird species occur in the tropics, many experiencing hot, humid conditions for at least part of the year.

Another recent paper from our team reveals similar increases in projected future risks of lethal hyperthermia for trumpeter hornbills. This large, fruit-eating forest species found in southern Africa plays a critical role in seed dispersal. Although biologists have often viewed tropical lowlands as safe habitats for birds from the point of view of their physiological functioning, our work is showing that increasing humidity coupled with rising temperatures poses a serious threat to birds, bats and other animals of the tropics.

There are worrying signs that climate change has already caused widespread declines in tropical birds. During 2025, several teams of researchers reported substantial declines in bird abundance, even in intact rainforests that have not been affected directly by human activities such as slash-and-burn agriculture.

Most recently, population declines of 25%-38% since 1950 among tropical birds have been attributed to increasingly extreme heat events. Tellingly, these declines have been more pronounced in songbirds compared to other groups. Rising temperature and humidity is a global-scale problem. The only long-term solution is halting human-driven climate warming.

– Humidity and heat are killers for tropical birds – waxbill and hornbill studies highlight the dangers
– https://theconversation.com/humidity-and-heat-are-killers-for-tropical-birds-waxbill-and-hornbill-studies-highlight-the-dangers-271634

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Dylan O’Driscoll, Professor in Peace and Conflict, Coventry University

Climate change and its associated impacts can worsen security challenges, including those associated with violent extremism.

This is particularly the case in areas that are both vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and characterised by social and political instability.

In north-eastern Kenya, for instance, droughts, flooding and livelihood destruction are unfolding alongside, and worsening, activity by al-Shabaab, a terrorist network headquartered in Somalia. The terror group has evolved from carrying out large-scale attacks in Kenya, such as the Westgate Mall attack (in 2013) and the Garissa University attack (2015), to persistent, low-intensity attacks and broader community engagement in the border region.

Despite these overlapping crises, the understanding of how climate change and violent extremism interact remains limited.

As a multidisciplinary team, we set out to address this gap through workshops with policymakers and practitioners working across relevant policy areas in Nairobi and north-eastern Kenya, as well as focus groups and interviews with community members and leaders in the region.

Our findings highlight how in vulnerable environments, climate change acts as a threat multiplier. It intensifies:

• economic instability, by damaging and destroying livelihoods

• social fragmentation, by increasing the strain on social networks

• psychological strain, through the scale of destruction caused by cumulative climate events

• institutional weaknesses, by increasing pressure on public services and government access.

These conditions provide increased opportunities for extremists to influence or coerce the local population.

When we spoke with local herders and community leaders in north-eastern Kenya, we found that the impact of climate change left local communities more vulnerable to recruitment by extremists. At the same time, al-Shabaab activities in the area made it harder for communities to adapt to a changing environment. This reinforces a cycle of fragility.

Climate impacts and insecurity are interwoven dynamics that shape everyday life, governance and prospects for stability in north-eastern Kenya.

Our findings challenge the idea that climate change and security can be addressed separately. Effective responses must combine environmental, social and security strategies to build long-term resilience.

Livelihood destruction

For pastoralists in the north-eastern Kenyan counties of Garissa and Wajir, keeping livestock is not just a job. It is their identity, their food security and their children’s future.

However, as droughts and flash floods become more frequent, herds are being decimated. In times of desperation, al-Shabaab positions itself as a provider.

As one community member told us:

When the land dries up, animals die, farms fail, and people go hungry, especially the youth, they become desperate. Al-Shabaab knows this and exploits it. They offer food, money, and what seems like ‘purpose’ to young boys who feel abandoned by their own government.

What we had not anticipated before undertaking this research was the profound emotional toll of climate change and how this is creating ideal conditions for al-Shabaab recruitment. The loss of livestock causes a deep sense of shame among men who can no longer fulfil their role as providers.

A local herder told us:

We are men, supposed to provide, but we found ourselves helpless.

In a culture where “a man without animals is seen as a child, no matter his age”, as one respondent put it, this loss of status leads to depression and hopelessness.

Extremist groups exploit this emotional emptiness. They offer a sense of status to men who feel they have lost everything else.

Increased migration

As water and pasture vanish, herders are forced to travel much further from home, often entering remote, insecure areas where the state has limited presence.

This increased mobility is a necessary survival strategy. But it increases the likelihood of encountering al-Shabaab.

Individuals arriving in new areas with depleted resources and no social contacts are vulnerable to recruitment. In these remote areas, al-Shabaab often steps in to provide assistance, such as protection.

The lack of veterinary services and schooling creates several further vulnerabilities. When children drop out of school to follow herds, they become soft targets for recruiters.

Social breakdown

Beyond individual loss, violent extremism is unravelling social bonds.

In the past, neighbours could count on each other. Now, they are drifting apart because nobody has anything left to give, leading to a profound loss of community dignity.

As one community member put it:

When your neighbour comes asking for milk or sugar, you have nothing to offer. Our economy is not just about money; it is about sharing. When livestock die, that sharing disappears, and we become poorer not only in wealth but also in spirit.

Even the authority of community elders is under pressure. They are losing influence because their traditional wisdom about the seasons is no longer effective. Their status diminishes, creating a leadership vacuum.

Al-Shabaab is quick to attempt to fill this void, offering a new sense of order.

Governance challenges

The reach of the Kenyan state is limited in the remote and arid northern region.

When aid is delayed or distributed unevenly, it fuels grievances about neglect. Al-Shabaab is highly effective at using religious and political language to channel these frustrations against the state. It presents its own ideology as a path to justice.

Furthermore, insecurity prevents the delivery of the services needed for climate adaptation, leaving the most vulnerable populations dependent on anyone who will help. This gives al-Shabaab a clear entry point.

The way forward

Breaking this cycle of vulnerability requires a policy shift that integrates environmental and security strategies. It is necessary to formally recognise climate change as a critical security issue, to trigger the multi-agency coordination necessary for mitigation.

In practice, this means aligning national and county-level plans to prevent and counter violent extremism with climate adaptation strategies. This would enable agencies to share knowledge and pool funding.

Climate adaptation plans must incorporate conflict analyses to ensure aid does not inadvertently fuel grievances.

Most importantly, future interventions must look beyond technical solutions to address the emotional weight of lost dignity and the breakdown of social structures. This will foster resilience in the local economy and the community.

– Climate change is worsening violent extremism in Kenya – what can be done
– https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-worsening-violent-extremism-in-kenya-what-can-be-done-279604

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Simon D. Angus, Professor, Department of Economics & SoDa Laboratories, Monash Business School, Monash University

Well, well. Kenyan marathon runner Sabastian Sawe has officially broken through the fabled “sub-2-hour” marathon barrier.

On a reportedly perfect Sunday, 26 April 2026 in London, the 31-year-old Sawe ran through the finish gate on the Mall in front of Buckingham Palace’s gilded architectural flourishes in an official marathon time of 1 hour 59 minutes and 30 seconds.

This betters the marathon world record by a whopping 65 seconds, the largest single improvement since 2018. The previous world record was held by the late Kelvin Kiptum, also of Kenya. Kiptum’s 2 hours and 35 seconds, set in Chicago in 2023, now somehow seems an entire era away.

In fact, saying Sawe broke 2 hours is something of an understatement. Such was the brilliance of the moment, that Sawe pushed the second-placed Yomif Kejelcha of Ethiopia below the sub-2-hour mark as well, just 11 seconds behind Sawe.

But as we absorb all of this, it’s hard not to wonder, “What next?”

My interest as a data scientist and economist (and fellow runner) lies in analysing the historical progression of the men’s and women’s world marathon records.

If sub-2 was the driving force behind the marathon in the last decade, what’s left to aim for?

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Read more: Marathon under 2 hours is closer than ever – scientist shows how Kenya’s Kiptum tests human limits

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Humanity seems obsessed with the limits of human creativity, ingenuity and performance. We award extravagant prizes for world firsts and remember the greatest achievements through bronze statues in prominent squares the world over.

But can we actually calculate these limits? Is there a “maths” of human endeavour?

Historical world record progression

Back in 2018, the legendary Eliud Kipchoge of Kenya ran 2 hours 1 minute and 9 seconds in the official Berlin Marathon. At the time, many dared to dream Kipchoge could be the one to take the men’s marathon below 2 hours.

In fact, a year later, Kipchoge appeared to do just that – running a phenomenal 1 hour 59 minutes and 40 seconds in a tightly orchestrated “breaking 2” display in Vienna.

However awe-inspiring, the Vienna effort would never make it into the official marathon books. The run was contrived in a number of ways, fully understood and acknowledged by Kipchoge and the organisation around him. This was never about the record, but instead, it was, he said, about proving that limits are there to be broken.

Around the same time, I had been working on a statistical approach to modelling the progression of marathon world records over the last few decades. I was intrigued to apply learnings from technological change in economics to the question of human performance.

There are all kinds of factors that feed into a world-record marathon performance. These range from training methods, nutrition, supplementation and biometrics, to performance analysis, and of course, clothing and shoe technology.

However, my approach, drawn from the economics of innovation, is founded on the idea that while performance gains can be made in any of these areas at any time – providing innovation rates stay steady over time – then the next world record marathon performance should be somewhat predictable.

Back then, I estimated that the official men’s marathon would break the sub-2 barrier around May 2032. That is, assuming a pretty rare 1-in-10 chance on any given marathon day of it happening.

Since then, we’ve had Kipchoge himself break his own record at Berlin in 2022, then Kiptum in Chicago in 2023, and now Sawe in London.

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Read more: Eliud Kipchoge broke the men’s marathon record by 30 seconds. How close is the official sub-2 hour barrier now?

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At each point, I’ve adjusted my predictions, since the model can use the new world record marks to improve its accuracy.

My most recent prediction, made in October 2023 for a runner similar to Kiptum, would be that the official sub-2 would go down in March 2027. From the perspective of a prediction exercise starting with data from the 1960s, Sawe was just a touch early!

How likely was Sawe’s run?

Using my original modelling framework, if we include data only up to Kiptum’s Chicago run in Oct 2023, the likelihood of a sub-2 on 26 April 2026 is estimated to be 1 in 4.29 (just less likely than 1 in 4 odds). In other words, pretty likely!

However, this is the likelihood of a run of just under 2 hours – 1 hour 59 minutes 59 seconds to be precise.

But Sawe went well under 2 hours, so what were the odds of his actual run?

If I use my framework to calculate the odds of Sawe’s actual time on that day, given the sweep of historical world records since 1960, I find the likelihood of 1 hour 59 minutes, 30 seconds on 26 April 2026 to be 1 in 7.4 (around 2 in 15) – that’s pretty rare.

Clearly, a lot of things had to click for the performance that played out in London. And indeed, the backstory already includes:

• the timing of Sawe’s fitness meshing perfectly with the London event;

• the importance of getting fuelling and shoe technology right;

• the “just so” conditions in London on Sunday (something that was absent in Berlin during Sawe’s previous attempt on the record); and, of course,

• the competitive environment that saw Sawe pushed by the second-best-of-all-time Kejelcha until the final few hundred metres.

So then what’s next?

My statistical framework uses an assumption that, over time, performance gains get harder and harder to achieve. Any of us who have aimed to improve on our local park run time will know all too well how hard it becomes to eke out more performance gains after the initial euphoria of the first week or two’s improvements is over.

In my model, if we follow the improvement process out for very long time periods, we can estimate the eventual limits of human performance. That is, an estimate of the best possible human marathon time ever. I call it the “limiting” time.

In 2019 when my findings were first published, based on men’s world record times up to and including Kipchoge’s world record of 2 hours 1 minute and 39 seconds set in 2018 in Berlin, the limiting men’s marathon time came out to be 1 hour 58 minutes and 5 seconds.

In 2023 I updated this forecast to include Kipchoge’s next world-record time of 2 hours 1 minute and 9 seconds (also set in Berlin, 2022) and Kiptum’s astonishing Chicago run of 2 hours 35 seconds (2023). At that time, and following the “Kiptum line” – a runner like him closer to the 1 in 4 odds line – the new limiting marathon time dropped to 1 hour 55 minutes 40 seconds.

As I remarked then, Kiptum had given the limits of human performance a real bump.

After Sawe obliterated the men’s 2-hour barrier, rerunning my model sees the limiting time once more drop, but this time, not by quite so much.

The new limit comes out to 1 hour 54 minutes – a full 5 minutes 30 seconds faster than Sawe produced in London. In performance gap terms, there is still around four and a half percent of performance gains to be made.

Naturally, there are a lot of inherent assumptions. And such is the exercise that new data points (new world records) tend to have a significant impact on forecasts. Furthermore, we are talking here about the limits of human endeavour – potentially hundreds of years into the future.

The tiniest deviations in a line of forecast today can have outsize impact on a point thousands of days into the future.

Which is a long way of saying, when Sawe’s Italian coach, Claudio Berardelli, hinted that Sabastian might go faster on a better suited course like Chicago or Berlin, I for one, will not be surprised.

The statistical arc of human endeavour in the marathon keeps bending upwards. There is still much to be inspired by.

– Kenya’s Sawe breaks the 2-hour barrier: what’s next for the men’s marathon world record?
– https://theconversation.com/kenyas-sawe-breaks-the-2-hour-barrier-whats-next-for-the-mens-marathon-world-record-281568

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Ishmael Tingbani, Associate Professor in Accounting, University of Southampton

Ghana introduced a new payment arrangement for petroleum imports in 2023, using gold instead of scarce US dollars. The policy was designed to ease pressure on the cedi by reducing the need for upfront dollar purchases to settle fuel import bills.

In an import-dependent economy, rising demand for US dollars usually weakens the domestic currency. Importers must exchange local currency for dollars. As the local currency loses value, the local cost of imports rises, driving inflation.

Ghana’s petroleum-for-gold strategy delivered short-term benefits. It reduced immediate demand for foreign exchange, supported relative stability in the cedi and contributed to moderating fuel price pressures and inflation.

The country is still vulnerable to global oil price shocks, however. That has become evident with the latest surge in oil prices triggered by instability in the Middle East. For oil-importing economies such as Ghana, geopolitical risks like this translate directly into higher fuel import costs and greater pressure on foreign-exchange reserves.

I am a scholar who has served as a technical adviser to Ghana’s Ministry of Energy and major oil firms. This article argues that Ghana’s current stabilisation measures are helping to manage short-term pressure, but they have not removed the country’s exposure to oil shocks. That matters because temporary relief should not be mistaken for structural reform.

The structural gaps are limited refining capacity, weak storage infrastructure and an underdeveloped downstream petroleum sector.

As long as these constraints remain, oil shocks will continue to transmit quickly into the exchange rate, inflation and the broader economy.

What’s working

Ghana is one of Africa’s largest gold producers, with output exceeding 120 tonnes annually.

The creation of the Ghana Gold Board, under the Ghana Gold Board Act, 2025 Act 1140, improves the state’s ability to mobilise gold through official channels. This is not a solution to Ghana’s energy problem. But it is a more credible stabilisation strategy than relying on politically driven fuel price interventions and implicit subsidies. Those strategies, seen in earlier periods, contributed to fiscal losses and market distortions.

Inflation has eased significantly over the past year, falling from peak levels in 2023 to around 3%-4% in early 2026. Fuel prices have moderated, with pump prices declining by over 20% year-on-year in Febuary 2026. This indicates that short term pressures are being managed.

But relief is not reform. Policies such as gold-for-oil cannot eliminate Ghana’s dependence on imported refined fuels.

The gaps

Ghana’s vulnerability to global oil shocks stems from the structure of its energy system. Despite producing crude from offshore fields such as Jubilee, TEN and Sankofa-Gye Nyame, the country remains heavily dependent on imported refined fuels priced and settled in US dollars. That mismatch ties the domestic economy directly to global oil markets.

In practice, this dependence is substantial. Domestic refining meets only a small share of demand, with roughly 72% of refined petroleum products supplied through imports in recent years. In other words, most of the fuel actually consumed in the economy is sourced from international markets rather than processed locally, reinforcing the country’s reliance on foreign currency.

These imports are concentrated in a few critical products that underpin everyday economic activity. Diesel accounts for the largest share, used extensively in transport, logistics, construction and backup power generation. Petrol (gasoline) supports road transport, while liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is widely used for household cooking and some commercial purposes. In effect, Ghana’s import bill is not abstract. It underwrites the economy’s core energy needs, from moving goods and people to powering businesses and households.

This dependency on imports is driven by three factors.

• Limited refining capacity. Ghana’s ability to process crude oil domestically is constrained by the limited and unreliable operation of its main refining asset, the Tema Oil Refinery. Although installed capacity exists, it has operated intermittently for years due to financial constraints, maintenance challenges and operational inefficiencies.

But expanding domestic refining capacity on its own won’t insulate Ghana from price dynamics. Domestic fuel prices remain linked to international benchmarks, meaning global oil shocks would continue to pass through to inflation.

Where refining could make a difference is on the financing side. It would lower demand for US dollars.

• Weak storage infrastructure. Ghana has limited strategic storage capacity for petroleum products, reducing its ability to build reserves and manage supply over time. The country must rely on frequent imports to meet demand, increasing exposure to external supply and financing shocks.

• An underdeveloped downstream petroleum sector. Beyond refining and storage, inefficiencies in the movement and sale of petroleum products constrain how effectively supply is managed within the domestic market. Distribution remains fragmented across importers, bulk distributors and retail outlets, with limited coordination and logistical bottlenecks in transportation and depot infrastructure. Regulatory rigidities in pricing and market participation further reduce flexibility. As a result, even when supply is available, it is not always efficiently allocated, and global price shocks are transmitted quickly and with limited buffering through the domestic economy.

What needs to be done

Four priorities now stand out.

First, recent gains must be consolidated through continued macroeconomic discipline and a firm avoidance of policy reversals.

Second, foreign-exchange buffers should be strengthened to better absorb future oil-price shocks and contain exchange-rate pressures.

Third, gold and foreign exchange strategies need to be integrated so that gold mobilisation directly reinforces external liquidity.

Finally, dependence on downstream imports must be reduced through credible investment in refining, storage and broader energy infrastructure.

The real test of Ghana’s fuel strategy is not whether it can withstand a single episode of oil-market volatility, but whether today’s stabilisation measures can be converted into a more resilient energy system.

– Ghana’s fuel payment strategy works for now: how to fix longer term problems
– https://theconversation.com/ghanas-fuel-payment-strategy-works-for-now-how-to-fix-longer-term-problems-281076

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Ndidzulafhi Innocent Sinthumule, Associate Professor, University of Johannesburg

South Africa’s Limpopo province borders Zimbabwe, Botswana and Mozambique. It is one of the poorest provinces in the country. This is due to a combination of historical underdevelopment, a high unemployment rate, heavy reliance on government grants and a rural-based economy with limited industrial diversification.

It’s an interesting place for a geographer like me. My work brings together the themes of traditional ecological knowledge, environmental geography, conservation and society. My research looks at sustainable environmental outcomes by recognising the role of local culture, sacred sites and community practices in managing natural resources in southern Africa.

In two recent studies I explored how local communities in Limpopo are commercialising the harvesting of local insects to manage extreme poverty.

In one I explored the process involved in the commercialisation of mopane worms. Mopane worms (Gonimbrasia belina) are a nutritious, high-protein seasonal delicacy for many communities in Limpopo.

In a similar study, I turned to the harvesting and commercialisation of termite alates in Limpopo.

These resources are important for food security and poverty relief. Mopane worms and alate termites offer both high-quality nutrition and substantial income-generating opportunities for rural households. Both foods are traded in local and regional, formal and informal markets.

This enterprise is largely driven by unemployment, economic hardship, and the need for cash income in rural areas.

My research shows clearly that these resources play an important part in rural households and it’s important to manage them sustainably. One way of ensuring this happens is to tap into local knowledge.

As a separate study I did shows, traditional knowledge can help manage scarce resources by integrating customary rules, taboos and seasonal monitoring to prevent over-exploitation.

Mopane harvesting and trade

The mopane worm study took place in June and July 2023 in Muyexe and Nsavulani villages, Mopani District, Limpopo. The area is dominated by mopane woodlands, trees which are the main food of mopane worms (caterpillars). These villages have not benefited from development in the past and people depend heavily on natural resources for survival.

The processing of mopane worms (from harvesting to a marketable commodity) involves a series of traditional, manual steps to ensure quality. They are degutted (squeezing the caterpillar to remove stomach contents or frass), washed, boiled and dried to allow them to be stored for long periods. They are then graded and sold at home or in towns.

I chose 161 households in Muyexe village and 82 households in Nsavulani village as respondents, and interviewed villagers using a questionnaire. The questions covered:

• the socio-economic profile of respondents

• the availability and procurement, processing, marketing, trading and livelihood benefits of mopane worms.

The study found that most of the harvesters in Muyexe (69%) and Nsavulani (59%) villages were women. Almost all processed the worms at home. They collected the worms for both household consumption and trade. Those who traded worms reported making between R1,000 (US$54) and R3,000 (US$163) per season. There are two mopane seasons in Limpopo: November to January and April to May.

The study found that 55% of households in Muyexe village and 70% in Nsavulani village derived income only from mopane worm sales. (Individuals were under 60 and didn’t qualify for a social grant, or administered grants for children, nor for themselves.) Although the income earned from the sale of mopane worms is seasonal, communities appreciate it. Commercialising mopane worms contributed significantly to rural livelihoods. It is a crucial source of food security and cash income. This helps alleviate poverty and improves the lives and livelihoods of those involved in the business.

Termite harvesting and trade

In a similar study, I turned to the harvesting and commercialisation of termite alates in Limpopo. I interviewed 71 respondents in Thohoyandou and Sibasa towns (who came mainly from villages), as well as Mukula and Tshidzivhe villages, and found that these insects were harvested to eat at home and to sell.

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Read more: My formula for a tasty and nutritious Nigerian soup – with termites

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Women of all ages were more involved than men in this enterprise, making up 75% of the respondents. Almost half had secondary education and 23% had tertiary education; 63% were self-employed. The majority lived below the upper bound poverty line of R1,558 (about US$95) per person per month. About 31% of the traders indicated that over the selling season (October to December), alates contributed up to 100% of the income in their households.

Management for the future

While commercialisation puts pressure on resources, traditional rules and local management protect the trees. In the study on traditional ecological knowledge, I found that the communities imposed rules that:

• prohibited cutting of green branches

• restricted harvesting during specific seasons to allow for maturity

• prohibited tree damage during the mopane worm harvest.

Traditional ecological knowledge regulated the timing of harvest, protected host tree health, and ensured long-term livelihood security for local communities.

This shows that integrating local traditional ecological knowledge into harvesting practices is crucial for managing these resources sustainably.

Management strategies should be integrated into local and regional planning efforts. Efforts should also be made to communicate these strategies to relevant authorities to foster cooperation and raise awareness about the importance of mopane trees for all user groups.

To ensure the sustainable future of this woodland species, I recommend that the government work with traditional leaders and communities to support and enforce existing traditional practices.

– Mopane worm and termite sales relieve poverty in rural South Africa – studies explore the impact
– https://theconversation.com/mopane-worm-and-termite-sales-relieve-poverty-in-rural-south-africa-studies-explore-the-impact-280926

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Krystal Tolley, Principal Scientist, University of Johannesburg

Tropical rainforests are known for their unique biodiversity, with species found nowhere else on Earth. But nearly 30% of tropical rainforest has been destroyed or has become seriously degraded since 1990. Many of these forests have not been fully explored for their biodiversity. This means that the world may be losing species before they are even discovered by modern science.

In Africa, forest loss is rapid; about 25% of the continent’s tropical forest has been lost since 1990, against a backdrop of incomplete knowledge of where the biodiversity is located.

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Read more: Africa has the highest rate of forest loss in the world – what the G20 can do about it

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Greatly lagging in this respect are the “sky islands” of northern Mozambique: isolated granite mountains that rise sharply out of the savanna plains. They were left standing when softer rock around them gradually eroded, and can be as high as 3,000 metres elevation. Because they rise so steeply, the sky islands attract clouds and rainfall, feeding moisture to the tropical rainforests on their slopes within an otherwise arid terrain. Isolation has allowed unique species to evolve on each mountain, such as geckos, rodents, fishes, crabs, frogs, butterflies and bats.

From 2014 to 2018, a research team led by fellow herpetologist Werner Conradie and myself explored these sky island forests to catalogue the species of reptiles found there. We found that each sky island forest is home to a previously unknown species of chameleon within the genus Nadzikambia (forest-dwelling “sylvan chameleons”).

Unfortunately, these chameleons are already at risk of extinction due to the heavy slash-and-burn clearing of the forests, the only place they can call home.

We’ve described these new species, choosing four names to highlight pioneering women scientists whose work inspired us to strive towards new discoveries, but also to call attention to the losses of their forest habitat.

Hunting for chameleons

Over the course of several years, we explored four of Mozambique’s sky islands – Mount Namuli, Mount Inago, Mount Chiperone and Mount Ribáuè – with the aim of cataloguing all reptiles but also in the hopes of finding new species of chameleons. This was because a species of sylvan chameleon had been discovered on one of these mountains during the 1960s, but they were not known from any other mountains.

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Read more: Namibia and Angola’s remote Ovahimba mountains reveal a haven for unique plants – new survey

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However, chameleons can be very difficult to find, given their ability to remain camouflaged against the background coupled with their slow movements. They are more easily spotted at night while they are sleeping, as they stand out against the vegetation when illuminated by a strong beam of light. Sylvan chameleons are even more difficult to spot than others, as they usually perch high in the thick forest canopy – tens of metres up.

The search meant dealing with some tough conditions: a long, arduous trek up the hot, arid slopes to reach the forest high up the mountain. Establishing a remote base camp was essential. All food, clothes and gear had to be packed into the camp, and we didn’t know how long it would take to find any animals.

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Read more: Dung beetles: expedition unearths new species on Mozambique’s Mount Mabu

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At each of these mountains, we surveyed every night for chameleons – no trails to follow, no GPS signal to guide us, no cellphone signal to call for help.

Sometimes we were lucky and found chameleons on the first or second night. At other mountains we were not so lucky, with fruitless searches making it necessary to return another year.

Eventually these mountains revealed their secrets and we discovered four new species of sylvan chameleon, one on each of the four mountains.

We don’t know how big their populations are, but we assume they are in decline. Most of their habitat has been destroyed by forest clearing to make way for agriculture, with increasingly rapid losses in the last decade. We estimate that in some cases, 80%-90% of their habitat has been destroyed.

When parts of an ecosystem are lost, the whole becomes unstable and is eventually lost.

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Read more: Increasing land use could turn Mount Kilimanjaro into an ecological island

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Choosing names for the new species

To highlight their predicament, we have described and named these chameleons and have forecast that three of these species are at high risk of extinction.

In particular, we highlight Nadzikambia goodallae from Mount Ribáuè. This species has been named in honour of the distinguished scientist Jane Goodall, whose own study species, the chimpanzee, is under similar pressures from loss of its rainforest habitat.

We also honour the renowned discoverer of the structure of DNA, Rosalind Franklin, by naming the species from Mount Namuli as Nadzikambia franklinae. The use of DNA data from these chameleons was essential to confirm them as new species.

We have dubbed the species from Mount Inago as Nadzikambia evanescens, meaning “vanishing” in Latin, acknowledging the state of the forest destruction.

The final species, Nadzikambia nubila, is named for the cloudy aspect of Mount Chiperone. This species has a lower risk of extinction given that the local community view the forest as sacred, and say it should be protected.

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Read more: What Cameroon can teach others about managing community forests

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This latter case is significant, as it demonstrates that wholesale destruction of these forests is not an essential trade-off for local people to thrive. If encouraged and supported, community support and buy-in can be a solution to protect biodiversity in these sensitive ecosystems.

– Mozambique ‘sky island’ expeditions found 4 new species of chameleon – already at risk from forest loss
– https://theconversation.com/mozambique-sky-island-expeditions-found-4-new-species-of-chameleon-already-at-risk-from-forest-loss-279908

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Marie-Francoise Roy, emerita professor in mathematics

Academia isn’t strong on gender equality. Women are under-represented throughout, in the research workforce and even more so as leaders in scientific organisations. This is true for science academies (prestigious bodies within national science systems) and scientific unions (international organisations representing disciplinary communities).

Women today make up nearly a third of the global research workforce. According to Unesco, they accounted for 31.1% of researchers worldwide in 2022 – up from 29.4% in 2012. Women are particularly underrepresented in engineering and technology (one quarter or less), while gender balance is largely achieved in the social sciences and humanities.

But workforce representation does not automatically translate into senior or leadership positions. A recent global study shows that women remain underrepresented in organisations that influence scientific agendas and norms, recognise scientific excellence and advise governments.

This 2026 report is based on data from more than 130 scientific academies and international scientific unions, alongside a survey of nearly 600 scientists. It was produced by the International Science Council, the InterAcademy Partnership and the Standing Committee for Gender Equality in Science, and follows studies in 2015 and 2020. I was one of the authors of the 2026 report, with Léa Nacache and Catherine Jami.

National science academies illustrate the scale of the gender gap. In 2025, women represented on average 19% of members of these bodies. That is an improvement from the results of the two previous studies – 12% in 2015 and 16% in 2020. But it still falls well below their presence in the wider research community. And the global average masks sharp disparities: in some academies, women account for fewer than 5% of members; in others, they approach 40%.

The task of international scientific unions is to help develop and structure their discipline, organise global congresses and award prizes. These unions show a somewhat different pattern from academies. On average, women now hold 40% of leadership positions in the international unions that were surveyed. But here, too, progress is uneven. Long-standing disciplinary inequalities remain, particularly for the most prestigious scientific awards.

Our report looks at the reasons for these patterns, how institutions operate in practice, and how change could be achieved.

The findings matter because scientific academies and unions play a significant role in the governance of science. Persistent gender imbalances in these bodies, therefore, raise questions not only of fairness, but of legitimacy and effectiveness. The legitimacy of science depends in part on whether its institutions reflect the diversity of the scientific community. And legitimacy is important in a context of global challenges – from climate change to pandemics – where public trust in science is fragile.

Beyond pipeline effects

Gender disparities in scientific leadership are often explained as a lagging effect: if fewer women entered certain fields decades ago, fewer will now be in senior positions or eligible for nominations in academies or for scientific prizes. Pipeline dynamics do play a role, as do traditional disciplinary gaps. But they do not explain the full picture.

Most scientific organisations report formally open and merit-based nomination, election and awarding procedures. Yet, the data show that women are consistently underrepresented in nomination pools relative to their presence among eligible scientists.

Our analysis points to the importance of institutional processes. Who is eligible to nominate? How are suitable candidates identified? How transparent are the nomination criteria? How much weight is given to informal reputation and networks?

In 90% of the academies surveyed, nomination relies on existing members. In contexts where membership is already predominantly male, such procedures seem to perpetuate existing imbalances. Even in the absence of explicit discrimination, informal sponsorship networks and patterns of professional visibility influence who is put forward. Evaluation of who would make a good nominee is therefore shaped by social and institutional dynamics, and not solely by individual achievement and merit.

Our survey of the gender equality initiatives in place showed that encouragement and awareness-raising practices alone have had limited impact. They need to be accompanied by structural reforms. In most organisations, gender equality measures lack dedicated structures, formal mandates, budgets or monitoring mechanisms.

Participation without equal progression

The quantitative findings were complemented by survey responses from individual scientists active in scientific organisations. These provided insight into how the structural patterns operate in practice.

Women who join scientific organisations report participating at levels comparable to men. They serve on committees, attend meetings and contribute to activities. But we found that this engagement does not translate into equivalent progression or recognition.

Women are three times more likely than men to report barriers to advancement within their scientific organisation. Women are 4.5 times more likely than men to report missing important events due to care responsibilities. And when they are able to attend, they are six times more likely to report not feeling they can participate to the levels of men.

Women are 2.5 times more likely than men to report experiences of harassment or microaggressions in their activities within scientific organisations. They also express lower levels of trust in the transparency of selection processes and in mechanisms to report and address misconduct.

Qualitative interviews documented strategies that women develop to navigate these environments. They include building women-only networks, investing in international engagement to escape restrictive local cultures, or collectively advocating for change. These strategies appear to be effective and organisations should encourage them.

From diagnosis to change

The report does not argue for a single model or fixed targets applicable everywhere. Scientific organisations vary widely. However, the evidence and case studies featured in the report point to a set of key institutional levers that can make a difference.

To take an example, in academies where formal rules and structures have been revised, improvements in women’s representation have been more sustained. Such good practices need to be systematically identified and generalised.

The central conclusion is straightforward: the underrepresentation of women in scientific governance is not a question of insufficient talent. It reflects institutional practices based on cultures that developed within male-dominated scientific communities.

If science aims to serve society as a whole, the bodies that define and represent it must be willing to examine how they operate – and who they include.

Many colleagues made contributions that helped shape and improve the report on which this article, prepared with Peter McGrath (InterAcademy Partnership) and Léa Nacache (International Science Council), is based.

– Women in science – global study finds presence without power
– https://theconversation.com/women-in-science-global-study-finds-presence-without-power-279248

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Christophe Premat, Professor, Canadian and Cultural Studies, Stockholm University

Who counts as an intellectual? In many traditions, the figure of the intellectual is tied to the search for truth, social critique and public engagement. From the Dreyfus Affair (a political scandal in 1894 in France that mobilised writers and thinkers to defend justice) to postcolonial debates, intellectuals are those who intervene in society, not just to interpret the world, but to challenge it.

In the African context, this role takes on particular urgency. Intellectuals on the continent and in the diaspora have long navigated a complex terrain shaped by colonial legacies, political constraints and global inequalities. They are not simply producers of knowledge. They are mediators between worlds, engaged in a struggle over meaning, identity and historical narrative.

As a scholar of cultural studies and postcolonial thought, I’ve sought, in a new French book, to analyse their paths not as isolated figures, but as part of a broader constellation of what we’ve called “African intellectual sensibilities”.

These are ways of thinking that are at once critical, situated and globally engaged. This approach highlights how African thinkers contribute not only to debates about Africa, but also to the redefinition of knowledge production itself.

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Read more: Sophie Oluwole, the trailblazing Nigerian woman who redefined philosophy

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So, identifying African thinkers is not just an exercise in recognition. It’s part of a broader effort to rebalance an intellectual history that has too often marginalised or misrepresented African contributions. As Congolese philosopher Valentin-Yves Mudimbe famously argued, Africa has often been constructed as an object of knowledge rather than a subject producing it.

From this perspective, here are six intellectuals whose work helps us rethink Africa and the world.

The famous

1. Valentin-Yves Mudimbe (1941-2025)

Mudimbe is one of the most influential African philosophers of the late 20th century. His seminal work The Invention of Africa dismantles what he calls the “colonial library”, the body of western knowledge that has historically defined Africa from the outside.

Rather than simply rejecting western thought, Mudimbe proposes a critical archaeology of knowledge. His work invites us to rethink how Africa can be known and, crucially, how it can speak for itself. He shifts the question from what Africa is to who has the power to define it.

His contribution goes further. By drawing on thinkers like Michel Foucault from France, he shows that knowledge is never neutral. It’s embedded in structures of power. This allows Mudimbe to expose how academic disciplines, from anthropology to history, have participated in constructing a distorted image of Africa.

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Read more: Valentin-Yves Mudimbe: the philosopher who reshaped how the world thinks about Africa

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His work opened the way for a generation of scholars who now seek to produce knowledge from within African perspectives rather than about Africa as an external object.

2. Achille Mbembe (born 1957)

A major voice in contemporary global theory, Cameroonian historian Mbembe explores how power operates in postcolonial societies. In works such as On the Postcolony and Critique of Black Reason, he analyses the afterlives of colonial violence and their impact on subjectivity.

Mbembe also emphasises the need for Africa to produce its own narratives. For him, intellectual work is inseparable from historical trauma, but also from the possibility of reinvention.

One of his key contributions is the concept of “necropolitics”, which examines how modern forms of power determine who may live and who must die. This framework has been widely used to analyse conflicts, borders and inequalities far beyond the continent.

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Read more: Achille Mbembe on how to restore the humanity stolen by racism

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At the same time, Mbembe insists on moving beyond victimhood. His work points toward what he sees as an emerging African future, shaped by mobility, creativity and new forms of belonging in a globalised world.

The fascinating

3. George Ayittey (1945–2022)

Ghanaian economist and thinker Ayittey stands out for his uncompromising critique of postcolonial African elites. While acknowledging the impact of colonialism, he argues that many of Africa’s problems today stem from internal governance failures such as corruption, authoritarianism and institutional decay.

One of his most influential ideas is the distinction between “cheetahs” and “hippos”. Cheetahs are a new generation of reform minded Africans, hippos are entrenched elites resistant to change. This captures a broader critique of political stagnation and elite capture.

Ayittey also insists on the importance of indigenous African institutions as resources for political renewal. His work is therefore not only critical, it is also programmatic, calling for a reconstruction of governance.

4. Kwasi Wiredu (1931-2022)

Ghanaian philosopher Wiredu is one of the most important figures in African philosophy. His central project, conceptual decolonisation, aims to free African thought from uncritically adopting western philosophical categories.

For Wiredu, language plays a crucial role. Philosophical problems are often shaped by the language they’re formulated in. By returning to African languages, he shows that debates about truth, personhood or political organisation can be reframed in very different ways.

His work on consensus-based political systems, inspired by Akan traditions, is particularly influential. Rather than relying on majoritarian democracy, Wiredu explores forms of deliberation that include agreement and social cohesion. In the process, he does not reject universality. He redefines it from within African intellectual traditions.

5. Oyèrónkẹ́ Oyěwùmí (born 1957)

Nigerian sociologist and gender scholar Oyěwùmí’s work offers a powerful critique of western ideas being applied to the rest of the world. In The Invention of Women, she argues that gender, as understood in western societies, was imposed on Yoruba social structures through colonialism.

Her research demonstrates that social organisation in Yoruba society was not originally structured around gender in the same way.

Rather than gender serving as the main axis of social difference, other markers such as age and status played a more central role. This challenges the assumption that categories such as man and woman are universally foundational.

More broadly, her work invites us to question how knowledge travels and how it can distort the realities it claims to describe.

The rising

6. Sabelo Ndlovu-Gatsheni (born 1967)

Zimbabwean historian Ndlovu-Gatsheni is a leading voice in decolonial theory. His work focuses on coloniality, understood as the persistence of colonial patterns of power long after formal independence.

He criticises the global division of intellectual labour, where African scholars are often confined to producing data while the theory is developed elsewhere. For him, the issue is about who has the authority to produce knowledge.

His work calls for African perspectives to be put in the centre of global debates and for a transformation of the structures that continue to marginalise them.

Beyond a list

African intellectuals are not a uniform group. They operate across disciplines such as philosophy, history, economics, sociology and literature, and across spaces around the world.

What unites them is a shared engagement with a central question. How can Africa be thought critically in a world still marked by unequal power relations?

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Read more: Is ‘Africa’ a racial slur and should the continent be renamed?

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There are, of course, many other prominent African thinkers whose work deserves attention. The figures here have been chosen because they are particularly representative of different ways of thinking from and about Africa.

Each of them opens a distinct intellectual pathway, whether through the critique of knowledge, the analysis of power, the rethinking of social categories or the transformation of political and philosophical frameworks.

– 6 African thinkers who help us understand the world – new book
– https://theconversation.com/6-african-thinkers-who-help-us-understand-the-world-new-book-280090